Cylindrical-Stem — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$7.05K

Hit rate

41.6%

Resolved

283

Trades

4,630

lifetime

Volume

$160.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

$8.60K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-28 11:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 145 days

Categories

Politics

39% 49% +$18,996

Crypto

29% 6% -$14,993

Other

28% 37% -$8,659

Tech

5% 19% -$5,372

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632	No		+7,000	$520	96¢	$6.8K	+$6,235	08-06 18:08
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+3,000	$1,030	62¢	$1.8K	+$815	05-18 21:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	66	$17.5K	12,682	12,681	+0	No	+$6,724	06-20 07:56
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	14	$6.6K	4,601	3,727	+874	Yes	+$793	04-19 12:18
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	28	$5.9K	6,816	6,816	+0	No	+$3,645	05-29 21:32
Fed rate hike in 2026?	17	$4.9K	3,234	12,234	-9,000	Yes	-$5,259	06-15 21:24
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	36	$4.1K	8,903	4,044	+4,859	Yes	+$2,457	04-21 13:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	17	$3.8K	15,105	0	+15,105	Yes	-$3,813	04-14 23:30
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	21	$3.4K	3,500	3,500	+0	Yes	-$225	02-28 10:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	7	$3.2K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$1,241	05-06 09:44
next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	18	$2.6K	14,027	0	+14,027	Yes	-$2,579	08-26 17:14
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	5	$2.6K	0	3,000	-3,000	No	-$423	06-10 12:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	27	$2.6K	8,403	4,400	+4,003	No	+$4,279	04-24 12:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	23	$2.4K	7,322	3,055	+4,266	No	+$4,818	04-21 21:45
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	7	$2.4K	12,000	0	+12,000	Yes	-$2,410	09-02 16:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	51	$2.3K	0	5,583	-5,583	No	-$3,238	05-06 09:54
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	18	$1.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$682	04-21 08:08
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	13	$1.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	-$1,870	06-14 07:01
iran x oman strait of hormuz agreement by june 15	16	$1.9K	1,156	1,156	+0	No	+$342	06-05 17:09
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	18	$1.8K	10,000	3,000	+7,000	Yes	-$920	06-17 17:29
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	14	$1.7K	1,285	1,418	-133	No	+$797	03-29 12:01
will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	8	$1.6K	7,000	0	+7,000	Yes	-$1,585	06-22 04:52
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	20	$1.6K	11,933	4,300	+7,633	No	-$838	03-30 02:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	10	$1.6K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	-$847	04-07 22:53
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	6	$1.5K	16,726	7,000	+9,726	No	+$4	04-12 04:40
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	9	$1.4K	11,500	6,000	+5,500	No	-$360	04-07 22:11
bitcoin above 66k on february 25	15	$1.4K	3,000	1,000	+2,000	Yes	+$2,440	02-25 14:59
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	9	$1.3K	8,000	0	+8,000	No	+$6,670	08-05 15:21
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	9	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$104	04-21 09:04
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	8	$1.2K	7,000	6,000	+1,000	Yes	+$50	08-09 22:16
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	23	$1.2K	4,500	0	+4,500	No	+$815	06-05 14:51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	22	$1.2K	6,000	0	+6,000	Yes	-$1,170	06-14 21:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-28 11:18:45	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	176	21¢	$37	0x534a74…
09-28 11:18:44	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	318	21¢	$67	0x995e18…
09-28 11:18:42	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x0f2e46…
09-28 11:18:41	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	500	22¢	$110	0xccbb50…
09-28 06:37:14	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	500	24¢	$120	0x157ba0…
09-28 06:36:27	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	500	24¢	$122	0x65b9fd…
09-27 17:49:06	trump renames ai by december 31	No	BUY	350	35¢	$122	0x89a5bb…
09-27 17:46:29	trump renames ai by december 31	No	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x2767eb…
09-27 17:46:26	trump renames ai by december 31	No	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x94463f…
09-26 23:40:48	trump renames ai by december 31	No	BUY	500	41¢	$205	0x633b87…
09-02 16:19:52	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,949	19¢	$940	0x24dfa8…
09-02 16:19:40	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	51	19¢	$10	0xec36ce…
09-02 16:19:40	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,642	20¢	$328	0x122d32…
09-02 00:20:49	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	160	20¢	$32	0x0dd1f4…
09-02 00:20:36	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0xd1f2aa…
09-02 00:20:13	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	23¢	$460	0xa83331…
08-26 17:14:27	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,090	11¢	$120	0x9eb395…
08-26 17:09:46	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x56ce07…
08-26 17:09:33	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x197ea4…
08-26 17:07:45	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x157aee…
08-26 17:06:57	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x8d840c…
08-26 16:29:37	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x0809ec…
08-26 15:25:43	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0xe52945…
08-26 15:24:48	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	415	13¢	$54	0x7e883c…
08-25 16:14:30	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0xbf5afb…
08-25 15:40:01	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	400	13¢	$52	0xb738ad…
08-25 15:22:06	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xda3c9f…
08-25 10:58:04	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0x8f7182…
08-25 10:57:06	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	13¢	$7	0x0085c5…
08-25 06:35:01	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	19¢	$376	0x2719f5…
08-20 15:56:31	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	520	26¢	$135	0x94ab1e…
08-20 14:46:54	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	14	26¢	$4	0xbb683d…
08-20 14:34:51	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x7314bb…
08-20 14:32:06	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	60	26¢	$16	0x94eea7…
08-20 14:29:39	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	79	26¢	$21	0x17e01b…
08-20 14:27:15	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xa73910…
08-20 14:08:27	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x427d08…
08-20 14:08:09	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x38a218…
08-20 14:03:31	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x541658…
08-20 14:01:28	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	13	26¢	$4	0x062fed…
08-20 14:01:27	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	676	26¢	$176	0x145cb4…
08-20 12:16:00	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	336	26¢	$87	0x3e689d…
08-20 08:02:03	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,998	20¢	$600	0xe1c06e…
08-20 07:57:57	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026 695	No	BUY	5,000	22¢	$1,099	0x82b187…
08-20 07:50:36	us canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by august 31	No	BUY	93	16¢	$15	0x6de4b6…
08-19 15:18:31	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	436	2¢	$9	0x2266da…
08-19 15:07:25	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x004d24…
08-19 15:06:37	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe9ac53…
08-19 15:05:49	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	300	2¢	$6	0x233c3f…
08-19 14:57:37	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	714	2¢	$14	0xc0fd77…
08-19 12:35:13	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	1,000	3¢	$32	0xe7ff1c…
08-19 12:33:57	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	989	3¢	$35	0xaedddf…
08-19 12:09:12	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x9aec84…
08-19 11:44:06	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xd1f683…
08-19 11:07:07	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	1,000	4¢	$37	0xbc192a…
08-19 08:39:00	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xb397bd…
08-19 08:38:58	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	680	4¢	$27	0x290b04…
08-19 08:38:40	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x469a3b…
08-19 08:38:27	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xdd193f…
08-19 07:11:51	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x590ffd…
08-19 07:11:19	bitcoin above 62k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xeaee8e…
08-14 10:16:39	bitcoin above 62k on august 14 2026	No	BUY	78	6¢	$5	0xad564e…
08-14 09:26:01	bitcoin above 62k on august 14 2026	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x013e2d…
08-14 09:02:13	bitcoin above 62k on august 14 2026	No	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xda104d…
08-14 08:59:10	bitcoin above 62k on august 14 2026	No	BUY	351	6¢	$21	0x25e4cc…
08-14 08:58:51	bitcoin above 62k on august 14 2026	No	BUY	559	6¢	$34	0xffa9d9…
08-12 06:39:01	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	672	2¢	$10	0x8eb2fc…
08-12 06:00:54	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe50b7d…
08-12 05:42:01	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x8ecc79…
08-12 05:29:09	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	1,273	2¢	$19	0xf2a4aa…
08-12 04:41:57	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x7446e9…
08-12 04:25:37	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	2,439	2¢	$49	0x949869…
08-12 00:22:09	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	300	3¢	$10	0x362ba4…
08-12 00:18:31	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x50713d…
08-11 23:39:19	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	62	3¢	$2	0x69a71d…
08-11 23:26:39	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	99	3¢	$3	0xfd46e9…
08-11 23:26:31	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	500	3¢	$16	0xcf6b5b…
08-11 23:04:48	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0xbd835e…
08-11 13:26:03	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	5,000	3¢	$133	0x26d30d…
08-11 10:50:58	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	62	2¢	$2	0xb12c01…
08-11 10:39:34	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0x98044e…
08-11 10:06:10	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0xe0b8fc…
08-11 10:05:42	bitcoin above 62k on august 12 2026	No	BUY	190	2¢	$5	0x33f501…
08-11 04:32:33	bitcoin above 62k on august 11 2026	No	BUY	5,000	1¢	$45	0xf61793…
08-10 09:14:34	bitcoin above 62k on august 11 2026	No	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0xbf5b10…
08-10 02:23:00	bitcoin above 62k on august 11 2026	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x4ea770…
08-10 02:23:00	bitcoin above 62k on august 11 2026	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x232902…
08-09 22:16:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	3,000	10¢	$300	0xb4ae69…
08-09 22:09:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	3,000	11¢	$330	0x7129e3…
08-09 19:31:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	3,906	8¢	$312	0x6aaf20…
08-09 19:23:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,000	8¢	$80	0xf635f7…
08-09 18:40:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	94	8¢	$8	0xc02182…
08-09 16:59:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xc00855…
08-09 16:59:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	184	9¢	$17	0x9bafe4…
08-09 16:59:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,806	9¢	$163	0x809f40…
08-07 02:52:07	bitcoin above 62k on august 7 2026	No	BUY	1,396	1¢	$8	0xf4cb0f…
08-07 02:52:07	bitcoin above 62k on august 7 2026	No	BUY	8,604	1¢	$52	0xe02c27…
08-06 18:08:17	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632	No	BUY	2,467	6¢	$148	0xfe7473…
08-06 18:08:17	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632	No	BUY	221	6¢	$13	0x775a3a…
08-06 17:46:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632	No	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x40ee96…