Mushy-Buck — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$58.7K

Hit rate

74.0%

Resolved

1,219

Trades

10,737

lifetime

Volume

$1.49M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$138

Open exposure

$13.0K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 16:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 256 days

Categories

Other

36% 73% -$34,321

Crypto

32% 55% +$14,101

Politics

27% 72% +$16,478

Sports

5% 39% -$22,880

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 200 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	-8,860	-$7,785	96¢	$-8501	-$716	05-11 17:42
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	Yes	+5,000	$3,866	36¢	$1.8K	-$2,056	08-25 04:29
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+12,800	$4,592	13¢	$1.6K	-$2,986	07-04 16:45
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	+4,000	$1,840	12¢	$500	-$1,340	07-01 18:08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4,995	$2,123	6¢	$275	-$1,848	05-25 21:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	-1,493	$45,060	12¢	$-172	-$45,232	10-25 14:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+6,000	$4,660	2¢	$150	-$4,510	08-25 03:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	217	$70.3K	83,006	84,499	-1,493	open	—	10-25 14:55
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	30	$43.1K	23,965	25,500	-1,535	Yes	+$6,363	04-24 14:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	89	$41.6K	25,150	25,150	+0	Yes	+$6,956	06-21 02:42
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	55	$34.7K	20,000	19,600	+400	No	+$755	05-29 16:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	83	$33.5K	24,300	24,300	+0	No	+$463	07-01 13:49
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	296	$24.7K	35,000	70,000	-35,000	Yes	-$16,557	05-30 01:54
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	84	$24.4K	21,228	6,798	+14,429	Yes	+$3,440	04-21 13:42
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	216	$21.7K	13,179	13,800	-621	No	-$857	03-24 15:57
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	102	$20.1K	11,000	11,000	+0	No	+$1,325	07-10 17:45
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	106	$19.9K	13,815	7,000	+6,816	No	+$866	05-26 19:16
will bitcoin reach 95k in february 2026	52	$18.9K	20,893	0	+20,893	No	+$2,021	02-07 17:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	122	$16.7K	23,000	23,000	+0	No	-$10,941	07-27 16:37
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	23	$16.5K	9,046	9,046	+0	No	+$1,237	06-30 16:45
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	39	$15.6K	9,751	7,000	+2,751	No	-$92	04-23 03:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	42	$15.4K	9,000	9,000	+0	Yes	+$2,302	06-16 10:48
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	13	$14.7K	11,000	5,500	+5,500	No	+$1,777	05-27 02:47
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	33	$13.5K	15,100	0	+15,100	No	+$1,560	03-13 22:52
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	43	$12.0K	14,450	0	+14,450	No	+$2,433	03-12 18:21
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	63	$12.0K	9,000	4,226	+4,774	No	+$731	05-18 15:55
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	62	$12.0K	18,600	18,600	+0	No	-$2,473	08-28 16:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?	47	$11.8K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$92	05-22 14:30
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	22	$11.4K	12,700	0	+12,700	No	+$1,317	03-15 08:48
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	24	$11.4K	14,160	0	+14,160	No	+$2,802	02-07 17:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	89	$11.3K	24,780	21,285	+3,495	No	-$9,839	09-04 14:29
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	66	$9.1K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$506	07-27 20:01
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	30	$8.9K	6,000	5,500	+500	No	+$583	05-26 03:30
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	29	$8.6K	5,014	4,228	+786	No	+$433	08-08 18:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	25	$8.5K	8,700	0	+8,700	No	+$176	05-29 15:06
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	18	$8.5K	3,434	6,654	-3,220	No	-$791	06-26 15:48
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	23	$8.3K	9,500	0	+9,500	No	+$1,225	02-06 17:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 16:05:39	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	18	52¢	$10	0xc27714…
10-27 16:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	42	52¢	$22	0x80cc9e…
10-27 16:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x849b52…
10-27 16:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	431	52¢	$224	0xd57a44…
10-27 16:03:56	Ethereum Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0xc56af2…
10-27 16:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xb9d41a…
10-27 16:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	35	50¢	$18	0x9c01e9…
10-27 16:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	51	50¢	$26	0x98cb87…
10-27 16:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x826aa6…
10-27 15:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	314	48¢	$151	0x428ecb…
10-27 15:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	SELL	600	5¢	$31	0x2af48f…
10-27 15:21:48	Ethereum Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xd31e71…
10-27 15:21:48	Ethereum Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	247	98¢	$242	0x9ea539…
10-27 15:21:36	Ethereum Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	157	97¢	$152	0x2cd984…
10-27 15:21:33	Ethereum Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	93	97¢	$90	0x4f464d…
10-27 15:20:56	Ethereum Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	337	96¢	$324	0x9155af…
10-27 15:20:53	Ethereum Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	163	96¢	$156	0x96a83e…
10-27 12:44:11	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 28?	No	BUY	90	81¢	$73	0x3e7973…
10-27 11:43:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 28?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x9dca0e…
10-27 11:39:36	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xb74b12…
10-26 16:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	250	55¢	$137	0x503dbc…
10-26 16:58:47	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	41	55¢	$23	0xe0245a…
10-26 16:58:47	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xbedcb4…
10-26 16:31:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xb1ddc0…
10-26 16:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0xc26cb3…
10-26 16:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xaca31f…
10-26 16:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x501694…
10-26 16:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	51	52¢	$27	0x7791aa…
10-26 16:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	41	52¢	$21	0x1d9280…
10-26 16:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x9cd68a…
10-26 16:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	42	52¢	$22	0x9e76cd…
10-26 16:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x9f6e03…
10-26 16:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x8c2018…
10-26 16:07:18	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb86012…
10-26 16:05:53	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0xcfde13…
10-26 16:03:36	Ethereum Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	1,000	53¢	$525	0x67de64…
10-26 05:24:06	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 26?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xb121fe…
10-25 18:36:30	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 27?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x85d86a…
10-25 18:34:00	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0xb20c0e…
10-25 18:31:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 26?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xe02076…
10-25 18:30:42	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	35	45¢	$16	0xf2df2a…
10-25 18:14:02	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	172	88¢	$151	0x55c725…
10-25 18:13:59	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x84a031…
10-25 18:13:53	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	322	88¢	$283	0x52ba87…
10-25 18:06:39	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$989	0x0950ba…
10-25 18:03:50	Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)	FC Barcelona	BUY	1,000	96¢	$965	0x3ed431…
10-25 16:02:36	Ethereum Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	1,400	52¢	$728	0x05db71…
10-25 15:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	144	50¢	$72	0xefcacb…
10-25 15:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0x901d60…
10-25 15:55:51	Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	BUY	1,000	98¢	$985	0x2c4cbf…
10-25 15:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	56	50¢	$28	0x9f51c5…
10-25 15:49:36	Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x896531…
10-25 15:23:30	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xb7abcf…
10-25 15:21:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x14f793…
10-25 15:21:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x15feab…
10-25 15:20:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x614731…
10-25 15:14:56	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x3e4fca…
10-25 15:11:09	Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)	FC Barcelona	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x432a83…
10-25 15:09:03	Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)	Real Betis Balompié	BUY	500	95¢	$474	0x5b6a8d…
10-25 15:07:33	Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)	Newcastle United FC	BUY	1,000	98¢	$980	0x51abd9…
10-25 15:05:47	Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)	Hull City AFC	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x23aad3…
10-25 15:04:21	Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)	AS Monaco FC	BUY	500	96¢	$479	0xfc4930…
10-25 15:00:35	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0x807b07…
10-25 15:00:03	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0x2e2324…
10-25 14:55:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	77,999	11¢	$8,580	0xf25158…
10-24 16:08:14	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x956544…
10-24 16:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	575	50¢	$287	0x34f45a…
10-24 16:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	43	50¢	$22	0x9f9c94…
10-24 16:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	94	50¢	$47	0x4c771d…
10-24 16:02:11	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	43	50¢	$22	0x9c5dfe…
10-24 16:01:23	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x233974…
10-24 16:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x2ef7e2…
10-24 16:01:14	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xf4b5f4…
10-24 15:58:38	Ethereum Up or Down on October 25?	Down	BUY	600	50¢	$300	0x9116fe…
10-24 15:53:18	Ethereum Up or Down on October 25?	Down	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0x313f5e…
10-24 15:46:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x8b637e…
10-24 15:43:47	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x5d48a1…
10-24 15:36:42	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x4e8b6c…
10-24 14:07:21	Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)	Racing Club de Lens	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0xc103ab…
10-24 14:05:30	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x99e1e9…
10-24 14:04:00	Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)	Cagliari Calcio	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x6c1b78…
10-24 14:02:44	Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)	RB Leipzig	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x1ee497…
10-24 14:01:06	Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)	RB Leipzig	BUY	300	95¢	$285	0x097ebb…
10-24 13:59:09	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x9a0b24…
10-24 13:57:24	Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)	Real Racing Club	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0xd3b614…
10-24 13:55:59	Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x23ba23…
10-24 13:54:50	Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)	Coventry City FC	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x4ef677…
10-24 07:12:00	Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)	AS Roma	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0xc597c5…
10-24 07:11:05	Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)	AS Roma	BUY	1,000	95¢	$950	0x9a741f…
10-24 07:10:02	Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5)	Como 1907	BUY	500	94¢	$472	0x87c46e…
10-24 07:07:51	Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)	BV Borussia 09 Dortmund	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0x7c42d8…
10-24 07:05:24	Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0xc80607…
10-24 07:03:53	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0xad5a3a…
10-24 07:03:12	Spread: Everton FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	1,000	97¢	$973	0x8a7ba8…
10-24 07:01:35	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xe7bb8c…
10-24 07:00:27	Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)	Manchester City FC	BUY	1,000	94¢	$940	0x1d89b6…
10-24 01:55:30	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$13	0xc54d44…
10-23 19:11:56	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x7a6154…
10-23 16:01:36	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 24?	Up	BUY	17	50¢	$8	0x1a944b…
10-23 16:01:35	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 24?	Up	BUY	45	50¢	$22	0xd57eb5…