Daring-Disaster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.63K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

722

lifetime

Volume

$25.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-26 02:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

60% 0% $-1,628

Other

20% — —

Sports

13% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	74	$4.6K	3,162	1,855	+1,308	open	—	03-23 09:07
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	10	$2.2K	1,526	758	+768	open	—	01-21 15:55
will the houston texans win super bowl 2026	28	$1.8K	1,200	682	+518	open	—	01-18 21:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	20	$1.6K	1,852	943	+908	Yes	$-591	05-05 05:46
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	22	$1.4K	1,557	0	+1,557	open	—	02-25 07:38
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	33	$1.2K	2,824	2,824	+0	open	—	04-07 23:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	5	$1.0K	1,191	0	+1,191	Yes	$-1,036	05-04 19:22
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$967	800	191	+609	open	—	01-24 14:39
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	5	$959	0	987	-987	open	—	01-04 18:50
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	39	$953	2,069	509	+1,560	open	—	04-07 23:09
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$790	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:53
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League?	9	$784	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:53
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	3	$768	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:53
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	18	$547	588	0	+588	open	—	04-07 23:10
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	28	$496	859	859	+0	open	—	04-07 23:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	63	$455	572	186	+386	open	—	07-02 13:02
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026?	6	$442	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	5	$426	0	447	-447	open	—	06-16 23:49
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	45	$400	2,114	66	+2,048	open	—	04-07 21:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	25	$370	647	894	-247	open	—	07-14 02:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	10	$288	361	361	+0	open	—	04-07 23:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	7	$254	487	0	+487	open	—	04-18 02:26
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	1	$226	248	0	+248	open	—	05-05 23:03
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	8	$214	217	0	+217	open	—	02-14 07:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$198	459	0	+459	open	—	04-18 00:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$181	236	0	+236	open	—	03-04 05:07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	2	$172	0	232	-232	open	—	06-18 19:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	12	$164	393	38	+354	open	—	06-19 20:49
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	25	$163	471	471	+0	open	—	04-11 12:28
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	3	$143	184	0	+184	open	—	07-13 15:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-26 02:38:48	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x182da2…
07-26 02:37:28	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xacad3f…
07-26 02:33:48	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xc4a6c2…
07-26 02:27:07	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xf96537…
07-26 02:26:28	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xcce7ad…
07-26 02:26:28	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x2ead2b…
07-26 02:26:28	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x0c3dda…
07-26 02:26:27	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0xe0b100…
07-24 19:32:18	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	5¢	$1	0xe407a1…
07-24 19:30:19	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0xf38d4f…
07-24 03:15:22	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x9a41b2…
07-23 23:09:37	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x57e209…
07-23 23:09:18	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xf44154…
07-23 20:46:16	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x790c20…
07-23 20:46:16	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	28¢	$3	0x116ffc…
07-23 02:47:36	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x176851…
07-22 05:54:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	17	50¢	$8	0xdf3476…
07-21 21:44:06	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xf6361c…
07-21 10:21:19	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xaf6a4b…
07-15 05:43:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x30d4ea…
07-14 22:52:41	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0x43dd49…
07-14 20:04:59	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x52535f…
07-14 19:58:50	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	29	61¢	$18	0x3137b8…
07-14 15:28:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0x903021…
07-14 12:15:34	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x69b8a6…
07-14 02:16:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	36	43¢	$15	0xda7a4e…
07-14 02:14:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	36	43¢	$15	0xf491c9…
07-14 01:21:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xf6e6f3…
07-13 23:51:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x973bf1…
07-13 23:26:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$1	0xc09266…
07-13 23:10:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xa9872f…
07-13 22:57:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x96dc27…
07-13 22:49:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0x52685c…
07-13 22:48:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	14	43¢	$6	0x42baa7…
07-13 19:35:55	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	31	4¢	$1	0x9cc95e…
07-13 19:29:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0x6550d9…
07-13 18:49:31	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	75	66¢	$50	0x0045aa…
07-13 15:14:07	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	34	78¢	$26	0xa03871…
07-13 15:08:10	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	16	67¢	$11	0xfe6b6f…
07-13 15:07:50	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0x5dd627…
07-13 14:17:29	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	No	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xed6489…
07-13 14:17:29	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	No	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xd7f824…
07-13 14:17:29	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	No	BUY	15	17¢	$3	0x72d0e0…
07-13 07:32:05	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x589080…
07-09 19:07:23	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x7f3bc2…
07-09 00:33:58	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0xf7321b…
07-08 18:29:53	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	33¢	$13	0x4f5ba2…
07-08 17:20:11	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0xb9aba3…
07-08 13:47:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0x13c5ec…
07-08 13:44:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	8	42¢	$3	0xe90c63…
07-08 13:39:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	14	43¢	$6	0x361070…
07-08 13:39:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x441acb…
07-08 13:36:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	12	43¢	$5	0xce414c…
07-08 13:29:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	41	43¢	$18	0x280642…
07-06 20:34:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	11	39¢	$4	0x95c976…
07-06 20:30:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	73	39¢	$28	0x6ba59c…
07-06 20:29:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4	39¢	$2	0x850f91…
07-06 20:21:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4	39¢	$2	0x4ebd87…
07-06 20:18:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x19caa9…
07-06 10:42:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	140	31¢	$44	0xf98b06…
07-05 15:31:32	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0xaddb54…
07-05 15:30:11	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	35	22¢	$8	0xbf84cd…
07-05 10:29:28	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	35	22¢	$8	0x760fec…
07-05 10:29:07	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x8ec875…
07-05 02:18:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	239	24¢	$57	0xe80707…
07-04 19:02:34	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0xe3d014…
07-03 22:57:47	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	24¢	$13	0x0fb719…
07-03 21:17:38	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x0c1128…
07-03 18:48:26	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	11¢	$1	0x26d9e0…
07-03 11:13:34	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0xc09519…
07-03 04:14:07	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	28	14¢	$4	0xa6c12a…
07-03 04:14:07	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	10¢	$2	0x6b1617…
07-02 17:19:43	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	6¢	$2	0x8bf2ca…
07-02 17:19:25	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	8¢	$3	0xf7214c…
07-02 17:19:25	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x410b22…
07-02 13:02:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xfb7f33…
07-02 13:02:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xf797fd…
07-02 13:02:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xc12a03…
07-02 11:59:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	9	73¢	$6	0x1c298c…
07-02 11:59:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xf49974…
07-02 11:59:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x3c695a…
07-02 11:59:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x2ae875…
07-02 11:59:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$0	0x2702e6…
07-02 11:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x9580c4…
07-02 11:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	29	73¢	$21	0x7f544b…
07-02 11:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	31	73¢	$23	0x6f446e…
07-02 11:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x4b38ec…
07-02 10:01:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	9	73¢	$6	0xd4fb6a…
07-02 09:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xe9fd07…
07-02 09:26:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x3c925d…
07-02 09:26:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x1d3da6…
07-02 09:08:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xb81c85…
07-02 09:06:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x6db38c…
07-02 09:04:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xd09f05…
07-02 08:57:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xe6fc02…
07-02 08:43:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$0	0x7f3cc7…
07-02 08:39:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$0	0x31e07f…
07-02 08:39:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x5492ad…
07-02 08:34:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x572db9…
07-02 08:34:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x49b77f…