Daring-Disaster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.63K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

793

lifetime

Volume

$25.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-17 04:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

60% 0% $-1,628

Other

20% — —

Sports

13% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	74	$4.6K	3,162	1,855	+1,308	open	—	03-23 09:07
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	10	$2.2K	1,526	758	+768	open	—	01-21 15:55
will the houston texans win super bowl 2026	28	$1.8K	1,200	682	+518	open	—	01-18 21:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	20	$1.6K	1,852	943	+908	Yes	$-591	05-05 05:46
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	22	$1.4K	1,557	0	+1,557	open	—	02-25 07:38
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	33	$1.2K	2,824	2,824	+0	open	—	04-07 23:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	5	$1.0K	1,191	0	+1,191	Yes	$-1,036	05-04 19:22
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$967	800	191	+609	open	—	01-24 14:39
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	5	$959	0	987	-987	open	—	01-04 18:50
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	39	$953	2,069	509	+1,560	open	—	04-07 23:09
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$790	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:53
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League?	9	$784	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:53
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	3	$768	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:53
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	18	$547	588	0	+588	open	—	04-07 23:10
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	28	$496	859	859	+0	open	—	04-07 23:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	63	$455	572	186	+386	open	—	07-02 13:02
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026?	6	$442	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	5	$426	0	447	-447	open	—	06-16 23:49
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	45	$400	2,114	66	+2,048	open	—	04-07 21:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	25	$370	647	894	-247	open	—	07-14 02:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	10	$288	361	361	+0	open	—	04-07 23:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	7	$254	487	0	+487	open	—	04-18 02:26
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	1	$226	248	0	+248	open	—	05-05 23:03
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	8	$214	217	0	+217	open	—	02-14 07:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$198	459	0	+459	open	—	04-18 00:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$181	236	0	+236	open	—	03-04 05:07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	2	$172	0	232	-232	open	—	06-18 19:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	12	$164	393	38	+354	open	—	06-19 20:49
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	25	$163	471	471	+0	open	—	04-11 12:28
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	3	$143	184	0	+184	open	—	07-13 15:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-17 04:53:42	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	Yes	BUY	21	45¢	$9	0xcf17f4…
08-16 06:06:21	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xd93cad…
08-14 11:46:45	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0x75a201…
08-14 11:46:25	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x08b1a4…
08-05 15:56:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0x9f1038…
08-05 15:55:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0x18cb4c…
08-05 06:34:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	50	47¢	$23	0x998084…
08-04 15:48:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	20	33¢	$6	0xd5b512…
08-04 13:27:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	83	16¢	$13	0xfa34f5…
08-04 13:25:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	83	15¢	$12	0x20036e…
08-04 02:18:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0xdd27aa…
08-04 02:09:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x0cc554…
08-04 02:00:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xf2857f…
08-04 02:00:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0x979bfb…
08-04 02:00:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x5325d5…
08-04 01:59:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0xfc8647…
08-04 01:55:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x02b092…
08-04 01:54:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x34e74b…
08-04 01:54:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0x10962a…
08-04 01:54:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xe18e95…
08-04 01:54:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x986273…
08-04 01:54:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x68f637…
08-04 01:53:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xe474bb…
08-04 01:53:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x235760…
08-04 01:53:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x79506a…
08-04 01:52:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xdf4c7d…
08-04 01:52:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x7d0627…
08-04 01:52:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	13	13¢	$2	0xfed8a3…
08-04 01:52:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xce13dd…
08-04 01:52:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x9f2c46…
08-04 01:52:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x36de1d…
08-04 01:52:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x118b19…
08-04 01:52:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x01cc09…
08-04 01:52:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x5a8c60…
08-04 01:52:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x977280…
08-04 01:52:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0x92c29a…
08-04 01:52:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x881c54…
08-04 01:52:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x062aff…
08-04 01:52:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xc86418…
08-04 01:52:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xc104db…
08-04 01:52:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x5a5e24…
08-04 01:52:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x357187…
08-04 01:52:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x29c335…
08-04 01:52:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x1ecace…
08-04 01:52:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xe7443a…
08-04 01:52:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xa64bc8…
08-04 01:52:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x5b3ad3…
08-04 01:52:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	49	13¢	$6	0x2615b0…
08-04 01:51:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x83f7ea…
08-04 01:51:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x5a1bc5…
08-04 01:51:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x789926…
08-04 01:51:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	14	13¢	$2	0x71ab23…
08-04 01:51:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x3a236b…
08-04 01:51:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xfbbffc…
08-04 01:51:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xe7db06…
08-04 01:51:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xad8f4f…
08-04 01:51:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xa614ae…
08-04 01:51:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x85325d…
08-04 01:51:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x54b41e…
08-04 01:51:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x5eb424…
08-04 01:51:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x076052…
08-02 06:31:50	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	21	65¢	$14	0xfe269a…
08-02 02:38:54	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	39¢	$11	0x340d49…
08-02 02:37:33	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	39¢	$11	0x163939…
08-02 02:22:14	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x96cbe3…
08-02 02:21:35	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	0	56¢	$0	0x32b1ff…
08-01 13:33:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	250	7¢	$18	0x7cc28c…
08-01 00:30:51	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x959ff8…
07-30 21:36:57	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x3cc5db…
07-29 21:02:08	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x044565…
07-26 02:38:48	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x182da2…
07-26 02:37:28	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xacad3f…
07-26 02:33:48	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xc4a6c2…
07-26 02:27:07	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xf96537…
07-26 02:26:28	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xcce7ad…
07-26 02:26:28	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x2ead2b…
07-26 02:26:28	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x0c3dda…
07-26 02:26:27	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0xe0b100…
07-24 19:32:18	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	5¢	$1	0xe407a1…
07-24 19:30:19	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0xf38d4f…
07-24 03:15:22	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x9a41b2…
07-23 23:09:37	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x57e209…
07-23 23:09:18	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xf44154…
07-23 20:46:16	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x790c20…
07-23 20:46:16	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	28¢	$3	0x116ffc…
07-23 02:47:36	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x176851…
07-22 05:54:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	17	50¢	$8	0xdf3476…
07-21 21:44:06	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xf6361c…
07-21 10:21:19	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xaf6a4b…
07-15 05:43:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x30d4ea…
07-14 22:52:41	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0x43dd49…
07-14 20:04:59	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x52535f…
07-14 19:58:50	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	29	61¢	$18	0x3137b8…
07-14 15:28:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0x903021…
07-14 12:15:34	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x69b8a6…
07-14 02:16:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	36	43¢	$15	0xda7a4e…
07-14 02:14:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	36	43¢	$15	0xf491c9…
07-14 01:21:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xf6e6f3…
07-13 23:51:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x973bf1…
07-13 23:26:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$1	0xc09266…