Daring-Disaster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.63K

Unrealized P&L

+$229

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

675

lifetime

Volume

$25.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$703

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-08 18:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

61% 0% $-1,628

Other

19% — —

Sports

13% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+386	$188	96¢	$369	+$181	07-02 13:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	-232	$-172	85¢	$-197	$-24	06-18 19:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	-152	$-148	42¢	$-63	+$85	07-08 13:47
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	+77	$31	30¢	$24	$-7	07-08 18:29
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+94	$23	25¢	$23	+$1	07-03 22:57
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	-160	$-15	11¢	$-17	$-1	07-08 17:20
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+81	$10	8¢	$6	$-3	06-23 10:23
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	-6	$-4	78¢	$-4	$-0	06-19 23:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	74	$4.6K	3,162	1,855	+1,308	open	—	03-23 09:07
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	10	$2.2K	1,526	758	+768	open	—	01-21 15:55
will the houston texans win super bowl 2026	28	$1.8K	1,200	682	+518	open	—	01-18 21:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	20	$1.6K	1,852	943	+908	Yes	$-591	05-05 05:46
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	22	$1.4K	1,557	0	+1,557	open	—	02-25 07:38
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	33	$1.2K	2,824	2,824	+0	open	—	04-07 23:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	5	$1.0K	1,191	0	+1,191	Yes	$-1,036	05-04 19:22
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$967	800	191	+609	open	—	01-24 14:39
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	5	$959	0	987	-987	open	—	01-04 18:50
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	39	$953	2,069	509	+1,560	open	—	04-07 23:09
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$790	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:53
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League?	9	$784	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:53
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	3	$768	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:53
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	18	$547	588	0	+588	open	—	04-07 23:10
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	28	$496	859	859	+0	open	—	04-07 23:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	63	$455	572	186	+386	open	—	07-02 13:02
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026?	6	$442	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 14:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	5	$426	0	447	-447	open	—	06-16 23:49
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	45	$400	2,114	66	+2,048	open	—	04-07 21:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	16	$329	647	799	-152	open	—	07-08 13:47
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	10	$288	361	361	+0	open	—	04-07 23:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	7	$254	487	0	+487	open	—	04-18 02:26
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	1	$226	248	0	+248	open	—	05-05 23:03
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	8	$214	217	0	+217	open	—	02-14 07:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$198	459	0	+459	open	—	04-18 00:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$181	236	0	+236	open	—	03-04 05:07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	2	$172	0	232	-232	open	—	06-18 19:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	12	$164	393	38	+354	open	—	06-19 20:49
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	25	$163	471	471	+0	open	—	04-11 12:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$132	147	28	+118	open	—	05-31 15:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 18:29:53	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	33¢	$13	0x4f5ba2…
07-08 17:20:11	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0xb9aba3…
07-08 13:47:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0x13c5ec…
07-08 13:44:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	8	42¢	$3	0xe90c63…
07-08 13:39:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	14	43¢	$6	0x361070…
07-08 13:39:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x441acb…
07-08 13:36:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	12	43¢	$5	0xce414c…
07-08 13:29:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	41	43¢	$18	0x280642…
07-06 20:34:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	11	39¢	$4	0x95c976…
07-06 20:30:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	73	39¢	$28	0x6ba59c…
07-06 20:29:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4	39¢	$2	0x850f91…
07-06 20:21:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4	39¢	$2	0x4ebd87…
07-06 20:18:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x19caa9…
07-06 10:42:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	140	31¢	$44	0xf98b06…
07-05 15:31:32	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0xaddb54…
07-05 15:30:11	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	35	22¢	$8	0xbf84cd…
07-05 10:29:28	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	35	22¢	$8	0x760fec…
07-05 10:29:07	will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x8ec875…
07-05 02:18:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	239	24¢	$57	0xe80707…
07-04 19:02:34	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0xe3d014…
07-03 22:57:47	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	24¢	$13	0x0fb719…
07-03 21:17:38	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x0c1128…
07-03 18:48:26	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	11¢	$1	0x26d9e0…
07-03 11:13:34	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0xc09519…
07-03 04:14:07	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	28	14¢	$4	0xa6c12a…
07-03 04:14:07	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	10¢	$2	0x6b1617…
07-02 17:19:43	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	6¢	$2	0x8bf2ca…
07-02 17:19:25	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	8¢	$3	0xf7214c…
07-02 17:19:25	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x410b22…
07-02 13:02:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xfb7f33…
07-02 13:02:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xf797fd…
07-02 13:02:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xc12a03…
07-02 11:59:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	9	73¢	$6	0x1c298c…
07-02 11:59:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xf49974…
07-02 11:59:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x3c695a…
07-02 11:59:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x2ae875…
07-02 11:59:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$0	0x2702e6…
07-02 11:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x9580c4…
07-02 11:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	29	73¢	$21	0x7f544b…
07-02 11:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	31	73¢	$23	0x6f446e…
07-02 11:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x4b38ec…
07-02 10:01:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	9	73¢	$6	0xd4fb6a…
07-02 09:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xe9fd07…
07-02 09:26:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x3c925d…
07-02 09:26:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x1d3da6…
07-02 09:08:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xb81c85…
07-02 09:06:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x6db38c…
07-02 09:04:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xd09f05…
07-02 08:57:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xe6fc02…
07-02 08:43:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$0	0x7f3cc7…
07-02 08:39:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$0	0x31e07f…
07-02 08:39:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x5492ad…
07-02 08:34:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x572db9…
07-02 08:34:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x49b77f…
07-02 08:33:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x909521…
07-02 08:33:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x698078…
07-02 08:13:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xd6291f…
07-02 08:08:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x0abdd3…
07-02 08:07:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xd406c1…
07-02 08:04:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x818df3…
07-02 08:02:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x25b71e…
07-01 23:03:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x5b03b0…
07-01 23:00:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x9551c0…
07-01 22:52:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x7408d6…
07-01 22:52:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xbcaa75…
07-01 22:51:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xf9592a…
07-01 22:51:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x3ea6e9…
07-01 22:51:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x1a3266…
07-01 22:49:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x327036…
07-01 22:48:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x14f881…
07-01 22:28:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xab760d…
07-01 22:20:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x451874…
07-01 22:16:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xd165bc…
07-01 22:13:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x4e86b4…
07-01 22:13:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x59a2a1…
07-01 21:56:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x470eb4…
07-01 21:56:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x9b516b…
07-01 21:43:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x5ad3de…
07-01 21:37:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xe568e3…
07-01 21:34:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$0	0x27cf84…
07-01 21:24:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0x893885…
07-01 21:20:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0x92582f…
07-01 21:15:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0xfa353c…
07-01 21:15:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0xa03ac2…
07-01 21:15:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x23dd69…
07-01 21:15:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x9a4438…
07-01 21:15:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	24	70¢	$17	0x1a4bb9…
07-01 21:15:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x12c15a…
06-29 23:20:26	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0x5db654…
06-28 22:39:37	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xc8325f…
06-28 22:39:16	Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x7462cf…
06-25 13:25:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x109cf5…
06-24 05:54:55	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	47¢	$18	0xc8ffc5…
06-23 10:23:28	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	12¢	$10	0xf3e057…
06-23 05:28:55	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	184	10¢	$18	0x08a44e…
06-22 14:07:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0xb67490…
06-22 07:38:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	157	58¢	$91	0xeaefed…
06-22 07:38:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	63	58¢	$36	0x928b79…
06-22 01:58:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	647	14¢	$91	0xbcad8c…
06-21 00:17:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	19	1¢	$0	0x225dbb…