Acceptable-Pocketwatch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$39

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.7%

Resolved

Trades

292

lifetime

Volume

$209.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$718

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 07-19 21:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

79% — —

Other

14% — —

Sports

7% 50% +$39

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	24	$38.3K	34,876	34,876	+0	open	—	04-12 12:22
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	9	$32.0K	36,449	0	+36,449	open	—	04-11 19:28
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	14	$22.8K	13,383	13,383	+0	open	—	04-21 20:29
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	13	$16.6K	27,535	27,535	+0	open	—	04-12 16:18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	8	$16.5K	10,156	10,156	+0	open	—	05-01 19:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	5	$11.1K	7,202	7,202	+0	open	—	05-01 19:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$10.6K	5,851	5,851	+0	open	—	05-19 18:48
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	12	$9.9K	10,853	1,646	+9,207	open	—	04-17 21:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$6.4K	10,200	10,200	+0	open	—	03-23 17:39
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	5	$5.3K	4,920	4,920	+0	open	—	03-23 17:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$4.7K	6,510	6,510	+0	open	—	04-08 11:44
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	1	$4.6K	0	4,748	-4,748	open	—	06-04 15:26
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	4	$3.8K	4,031	4,031	+0	open	—	04-12 10:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$3.7K	2,361	2,361	+0	open	—	04-17 19:04
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	5	$2.0K	3,382	3,382	+0	open	—	04-12 11:54
nba orl det 2026 04 22	2	$2.0K	1,282	1,274	+8	open	—	04-22 15:37
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$1.9K	1,356	1,356	+0	open	—	04-21 21:00
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	6	$1.8K	2,594	2,594	+0	open	—	06-06 03:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$1.6K	0	7,424	-7,424	open	—	06-15 05:54
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	2	$1.5K	2,253	0	+2,253	open	—	07-11 12:05
Pistons vs. Magic	12	$1.4K	2,314	1,313	+1,000	open	—	05-02 01:28
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	7	$800	1,742	800	+942	Timberwolves	+$0	05-05 03:58
Spurs vs. Thunder	4	$780	2,164	0	+2,164	open	—	05-21 02:42
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	4	$718	4,286	4,286	+0	open	—	04-21 21:00
Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?	2	$606	448	444	+4	open	—	05-03 10:26
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	5	$581	907	907	+0	open	—	05-02 02:15
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?	2	$575	394	391	+3	open	—	05-03 20:15
nba det okc 2026 03 30	4	$543	1,162	1,023	+139	open	—	03-31 04:03
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	5	$520	1,817	0	+1,817	open	—	07-19 21:04
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	4	$480	2,127	0	+2,127	open	—	06-14 03:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 21:04:46	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	471	4¢	$20	0xc13843…
07-19 20:49:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0x1296d4…
07-19 20:31:58	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	276	36¢	$100	0x6a77d8…
07-19 20:05:48	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	120	41¢	$50	0x61aa21…
07-19 19:57:51	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	723	41¢	$300	0xd3942b…
07-15 20:13:04	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	296	34¢	$100	0xa85671…
07-15 20:10:58	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x67b0a2…
07-14 18:52:50	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	357	56¢	$200	0x1f44d9…
07-11 12:05:58	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	714	70¢	$500	0xb6cfe8…
07-08 19:43:17	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	1,538	65¢	$1,000	0x8dc985…
07-07 17:08:10	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	312	64¢	$200	0xf399e0…
07-07 17:03:07	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	234	64¢	$150	0x91bd2e…
07-04 18:18:32	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Canada	BUY	278	18¢	$50	0x1f7e9e…
07-03 22:43:34	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Cabo Verde	BUY	435	2¢	$10	0x91a5d5…
07-03 20:39:13	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Australia	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x167794…
07-03 20:33:07	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Egypt	SELL	169	51¢	$86	0xd54ea4…
07-03 20:13:05	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x46159f…
07-02 19:59:23	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 team to advance	Austria	BUY	444	4¢	$20	0x440557…
07-01 16:57:32	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	England	BUY	462	65¢	$300	0x2857b1…
06-29 17:05:25	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	347	72¢	$250	0x1f416d…
06-15 05:54:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2,475	29¢	$718	0x1996d5…
06-14 03:19:51	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0xc1e68d…
06-14 03:19:28	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0xfb934f…
06-14 03:10:51	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0x94de6b…
06-14 03:09:39	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	566	53¢	$300	0x69ad31…
06-13 21:58:19	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	672	15¢	$100	0x3ed595…
06-13 21:58:00	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0x466a94…
06-12 08:58:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	4,949	18¢	$891	0xfc715a…
06-06 03:10:27	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	SELL	2,594	56¢	$1,453	0x456200…
06-06 03:01:39	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0xed6874…
06-06 02:57:42	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0xa1c64a…
06-06 02:57:03	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0xb94ddc…
06-06 02:52:07	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	296	27¢	$80	0x839512…
06-06 02:50:51	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	177	26¢	$46	0x126fc6…
06-04 15:26:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	4,748	97¢	$4,624	0x7e0915…
05-27 03:07:14	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xdde6ae…
05-27 02:14:07	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xa6452c…
05-27 02:13:55	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x182cfe…
05-27 02:09:01	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	500	14¢	$70	0xd328b9…
05-27 01:11:48	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0x641eb3…
05-27 01:02:17	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x5c220c…
05-27 00:50:21	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x54ee6d…
05-23 03:11:35	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0x644d3c…
05-23 02:54:42	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	429	7¢	$30	0x898631…
05-23 02:54:28	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0xf85d89…
05-21 12:49:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	556	18¢	$100	0x000bf3…
05-21 12:45:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	3,116	3¢	$100	0xb99eb7…
05-21 02:42:53	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0x2dba1e…
05-21 02:30:08	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x388862…
05-21 02:20:38	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	667	15¢	$100	0x4502f7…
05-20 19:39:20	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	870	69¢	$600	0x4eb9aa…
05-19 18:48:11	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	5,851	96¢	$5,588	0x70ed56…
05-09 21:37:46	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x945176…
05-06 02:47:22	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x9299c0…
05-06 02:42:20	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xcbcb8c…
05-06 02:39:12	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	333	6¢	$20	0x67f791…
05-05 03:58:02	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	357	14¢	$50	0xfec9ea…
05-05 03:57:16	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0x673d1d…
05-05 03:56:52	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x4ea024…
05-05 03:48:34	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	SELL	400	54¢	$216	0xd3d97d…
05-05 03:42:22	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x171fef…
05-05 03:41:14	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	SELL	400	46¢	$184	0x608241…
05-05 03:34:22	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0xd868b7…
05-05 01:45:02	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	417	1¢	$5	0x0e8e97…
05-05 01:42:36	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	175	3¢	$5	0x2ca7eb…
05-05 01:38:18	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	152	3¢	$5	0x38014f…
05-05 01:37:52	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	303	3¢	$10	0xe9a377…
05-05 01:37:32	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	286	3¢	$10	0xd5f69a…
05-03 21:45:12	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xcd89a3…
05-03 21:44:22	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	1,349	0¢	$2	0x111bb4…
05-03 21:43:30	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x85097f…
05-03 21:13:12	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0x072b5f…
05-03 21:09:20	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0xfa81aa…
05-03 21:08:58	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	375	8¢	$30	0xe8ba41…
05-03 21:03:50	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	35	11¢	$4	0x5ee883…
05-03 20:45:04	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xd42ca9…
05-03 20:42:52	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	667	15¢	$100	0xc37ecf…
05-03 20:15:48	Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	391	70¢	$275	0x257dbd…
05-03 10:26:52	Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?	No	SELL	444	69¢	$306	0xc1a734…
05-03 01:56:32	76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	270	26¢	$70	0xae44c5…
05-03 01:38:26	76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	SELL	196	37¢	$72	0x099051…
05-03 01:26:20	76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x1c6570…
05-03 01:25:38	76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0xb473d2…
05-02 02:15:16	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Cavaliers	SELL	454	56¢	$254	0x83e9a6…
05-02 02:11:18	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Cavaliers	SELL	454	39¢	$177	0x8f2545…
05-02 01:44:08	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Cavaliers	BUY	357	14¢	$50	0xeba5fb…
05-02 01:28:12	Pistons vs. Magic	Magic	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x3c2a0d…
05-02 01:26:36	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	SELL	328	93¢	$305	0xd0d3a7…
05-02 01:25:24	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	SELL	328	94¢	$309	0xa45169…
05-02 01:23:08	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	SELL	657	80¢	$525	0x64b3c2…
05-02 01:17:54	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Cavaliers	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x1fb590…
05-02 01:17:22	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Cavaliers	BUY	350	20¢	$70	0x4449ae…
05-02 00:25:50	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x6869fd…
05-02 00:22:26	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x32fa8f…
05-02 00:07:38	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xbd6d78…
05-02 00:04:16	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x82144a…
05-02 00:02:30	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	158	19¢	$30	0x31f5c6…
05-02 00:01:08	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0xcaf609…
05-01 23:58:54	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0x8e2f93…
05-01 23:53:30	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0x76805a…