Visible-Thickness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$490

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

56.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$138

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-23

last 10-09 06:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

75% 31% -$496

Politics

25% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932	No		+8	$5	88¢	$7	+$2	09-04 14:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?	2	$725	371	371	+0	No	+$0	05-17 05:41
Spread: Club ABB (-1.5)	3	$723	385	385	+0	CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo	+$7	06-09 05:07
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	2	$718	385	385	+0	open	—	05-22 05:27
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	3	$664	369	369	+0	open	—	07-04 08:57
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	2	$636	339	339	+0	open	—	05-24 06:43
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5)	1	$418	445	0	+445	Al Hazem SC	-$418	05-21 04:42
Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)	1	$398	419	0	+419	Dalian Yingbo FC	+$21	05-19 09:31
Spread: CD Unión La Calera (-1.5)	1	$362	398	0	+398	CD Huachipato	+$36	05-17 05:46
Spread: CD Concepción (-2.5)	1	$313	337	0	+337	CD Huachipato	+$24	05-24 06:47
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31?	3	$89	743	743	+0	No	+$0	05-23 07:17
val srb rose 2026 03 23	1	$60	463	0	+463	Shopify Rebellion Black	-$60	03-23 08:43
Spread: FC Zlín (-2.5)	2	$49	706	0	+706	1. FC Slovácko	-$49	05-23 07:18
uef pol alb 2026 03 26 total 4pt5	1	$35	393	0	+393	Under	-$35	03-26 08:03
will iran strike the united kingdom by march 31	7	$16	518	598	-80	No	+$6	03-27 01:57
bra2 fec cui 2026 03 31 spread away 2pt5	2	$11	433	0	+433	Fortaleza EC	-$11	03-31 11:39
fl1 psg tou 2026 04 03 spread away 1pt5	2	$8	346	0	+346	Paris Saint-Germain FC	-$8	04-03 06:14
china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	09-04 14:21
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	10-09 06:31
fif egy esp 2026 03 30 spread home 1pt5	2	$2	302	0	+302	Spain	-$2	03-30 07:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 06:31:04	U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x8b4d41…
09-04 14:21:12	china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932	No	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x90d463…
07-04 08:57:38	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	369	90¢	$332	0x02d2ad…
07-04 06:44:56	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	349	90¢	$314	0x0a3ba0…
07-04 06:44:49	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x4e6279…
06-09 05:07:31	Spread: Club ABB (-1.5)	CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo	SELL	375	95¢	$356	0x995c23…
05-24 06:47:47	Spread: CD Concepción (-2.5)	CD Huachipato	BUY	337	93¢	$313	0x859c4d…
05-24 06:43:27	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No	SELL	339	92¢	$313	0x73d880…
05-24 02:50:36	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No	BUY	339	95¢	$323	0x4a9795…
05-23 07:18:52	Spread: FC Zlín (-2.5)	FC Zlín	BUY	353	7¢	$25	0x2be0eb…
05-23 07:18:47	Spread: FC Zlín (-2.5)	FC Zlín	BUY	353	7¢	$25	0xbaae43…
05-23 07:17:21	Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31?	Yes	SELL	743	6¢	$45	0x3ab853…
05-23 05:20:20	Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	349	6¢	$21	0x01e2e6…
05-23 05:20:18	Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	394	6¢	$24	0x00e89c…
05-22 05:33:33	Spread: Club ABB (-1.5)	CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo	BUY	385	93¢	$358	0xb28be7…
05-22 05:27:43	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	SELL	385	93¢	$359	0x0a81a8…
05-22 02:48:32	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	BUY	385	93¢	$359	0x2371b9…
05-21 04:42:49	Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5)	Al Taawoun Saudi Club	BUY	445	94¢	$418	0x277f91…
05-19 09:31:01	Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)	Dalian Yingbo FC	BUY	419	95¢	$398	0x9fbc37…
05-17 05:46:31	Spread: CD Unión La Calera (-1.5)	CD Huachipato	BUY	398	91¢	$362	0x4fb325…
05-17 05:41:56	Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?	No	SELL	371	98¢	$362	0x5d4c3d…
05-17 03:03:54	Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?	No	BUY	371	98¢	$362	0x827797…
04-03 06:14:33	fl1 psg tou 2026 04 03 spread away 1pt5	Toulouse FC	BUY	222	2¢	$5	0x2c2859…
04-03 06:14:33	fl1 psg tou 2026 04 03 spread away 1pt5	Toulouse FC	BUY	124	2¢	$3	0x254f76…
03-31 11:39:33	bra2 fec cui 2026 03 31 spread away 2pt5	Cuiabá EC	BUY	225	3¢	$6	0x3694a7…
03-31 11:39:19	bra2 fec cui 2026 03 31 spread away 2pt5	Cuiabá EC	BUY	208	3¢	$5	0xd71a35…
03-30 07:29:52	fif egy esp 2026 03 30 spread home 1pt5	Egypt	BUY	191	0¢	$1	0x701b5c…
03-30 07:29:52	fif egy esp 2026 03 30 spread home 1pt5	Egypt	BUY	111	0¢	$1	0x275a6f…
03-27 01:57:35	will iran strike the united kingdom by march 31	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x0e62df…
03-27 01:56:33	will iran strike the united kingdom by march 31	Yes	SELL	158	2¢	$4	0xf481a5…
03-27 01:56:17	will iran strike the united kingdom by march 31	Yes	SELL	131	2¢	$3	0x1e9e1f…
03-26 08:03:25	uef pol alb 2026 03 26 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	393	9¢	$35	0x218f30…
03-26 07:03:25	will iran strike the united kingdom by march 31	Yes	SELL	128	1¢	$2	0xfec26b…
03-26 07:03:01	will iran strike the united kingdom by march 31	Yes	SELL	180	1¢	$2	0xbcf95d…
03-26 05:11:13	will iran strike the united kingdom by march 31	Yes	BUY	257	1¢	$3	0x4e1dfd…
03-26 05:11:13	will iran strike the united kingdom by march 31	Yes	BUY	261	1¢	$3	0x0573c8…
03-23 08:43:01	val srb rose 2026 03 23	ROSE	BUY	463	13¢	$60	0x9b573d…