Thoughtful-Proportion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.24K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.3%

Resolved

1,872

Trades

5,081

lifetime

Volume

$13.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 16:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 253 days

Categories

Other

61% 13% -$1,616

Politics

18% 11% -$227

Crypto

14% 31% -$128

Sports

6% 13% -$163

Tech

1% 7% -$104

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 149 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	40	$666	20,186	12,084	+8,103	Yes	-$114	01-28 13:25
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	25	$412	1,301	1,301	+0	Yes	+$124	05-17 15:50
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	3	$402	844	400	+444	No	+$394	05-26 02:21
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	54	$310	10,596	3,191	+7,405	Yes	-$56	03-04 17:24
will mrbeasts next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 264	8	$309	357	390	-33	Yes	+$221	01-08 10:36
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	28	$222	1,926	1,726	+200	No	+$38	05-04 07:33
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 400m and 440m by january 31	4	$177	1,820	2,009	-189	No	-$111	01-21 01:57
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	15	$147	38,237	31,207	+7,030	No	-$57	01-20 16:17
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Who wins the toss?	4	$147	117	117	+0	Kolkata Knight Riders	+$28	05-08 14:45
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings - Who wins the toss?	4	$145	97	96	+1	Mumbai Indians	+$47	04-23 13:38
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 560 579	6	$130	220	104	+116	Yes	+$28	01-09 16:47
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	11	$128	882	882	+0	Yes	+$41	05-04 07:32
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	7	$125	1,203	1,103	+100	No	+$13	01-31 12:49
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?	10	$118	218	211	+7	No	+$104	08-19 15:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	39	$115	783	683	+100	Yes	-$5	07-29 16:48
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	19	$113	21,647	1,445	+20,201	Yes	-$34	05-31 01:47
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-09 12:15 UTC	3	$107	158	148	+10	Up	-$21	01-09 12:28
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2?	11	$104	1,803	1,417	+386	No	-$45	05-18 14:34
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	6	$104	128	128	+0	Sean Strickland	+$58	05-10 04:45
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	5	$103	100	100	+0	Yes	+$67	05-09 08:31
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans - Who wins the toss?	5	$100	80	79	+1	Royal Challengers Bangalore	+$17	04-24 13:38
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans	2	$99	62	62	+1	Royal Challengers Bangalore	+$24	04-24 18:13
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	8	$97	198	198	+0	Yes	+$68	04-05 02:43
will the us collect between 100b and 200b in revenue in 2025	9	$90	1,098	1,098	+0	No	-$2	02-03 12:24
crint ind nzl 2026 01 21	10	$85	897	252	+645	India	-$50	01-21 15:32
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3?	5	$85	114	114	+0	Yes	+$63	05-05 03:55
will israel strike lebanon on january 16 2026	12	$84	5,237	0	+5,237	No	-$84	01-20 16:18
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 65 89	10	$83	208	208	+0	Yes	+$31	02-02 16:06
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings - Who wins the toss?	4	$79	62	62	+0	Delhi Capitals	+$14	05-05 13:31
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals	15	$76	251	210	+41	Delhi Capitals	-$1	05-17 18:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xbd56cc…
10-26 16:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	27¢	$0	0x4b5e6c…
10-26 16:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xb39ac3…
10-26 15:59:53	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x7b8be9…
10-26 15:56:06	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xcfe47f…
10-26 15:53:51	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x0161f9…
10-26 15:25:08	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	46	6¢	$3	0x8abb15…
10-26 10:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xd247f8…
10-26 10:41:42	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xb776ad…
10-26 10:41:03	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	375	0¢	$2	0x59fa4f…
10-26 09:14:27	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	31	9¢	$3	0xe24a90…
10-26 09:12:36	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	92	1¢	$1	0xb89e22…
10-26 09:12:17	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6b6e0e…
10-26 09:10:20	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xa88e3c…
10-26 09:09:50	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x6a146b…
10-24 13:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x43ec47…
10-24 13:37:32	Ireland Tour of Namibia ODIs: Namibia vs Ireland	Ireland	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xcd59d7…
10-23 16:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x8b315a…
10-23 16:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x678735…
10-23 16:27:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x105886…
10-23 16:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd75450…
10-23 16:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x395528…
10-23 16:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x8646ac…
10-23 16:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xfc6323…
10-23 16:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x18491f…
10-23 16:08:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0x35c3e4…
10-23 16:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x7062bc…
10-23 15:59:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x893d1c…
10-23 15:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x0aa05a…
10-23 15:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0xacd0f3…
10-23 15:31:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xa52951…
10-23 15:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb26ab9…
10-23 15:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0xcfcc21…
10-23 15:26:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x90a0f4…
10-23 15:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0x8ea4f1…
10-23 15:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0xf1ea64…
10-23 15:15:56	UAE Tri-Nations ODIs: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe	Zimbabwe	BUY	23	5¢	$1	0x0ab5fc…
10-23 10:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xad235b…
10-23 10:36:20	Zimbabwe Women Tour of India ODIs: India Women vs Zimbabwe Women	Zimbabwe Women	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2573df…
10-23 06:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x387141…
10-23 06:53:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x913db2…
10-23 06:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x608f9e…
10-23 06:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xf88b54…
10-23 06:42:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x2328dd…
10-23 06:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x92634d…
10-23 06:41:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x9b0411…
10-22 16:23:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf82395…
10-22 16:17:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x048051…
10-22 16:14:45	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	Sri Lanka	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfdf80f…
10-22 16:14:12	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	England	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x54bbc5…
10-22 16:13:24	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	Sri Lanka	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xfa1abc…
10-22 16:12:08	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	England	SELL	12	66¢	$8	0xfb5bdd…
10-22 16:10:32	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	England	SELL	12	38¢	$4	0x8e3591…
10-22 16:06:54	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	England	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xceb4a3…
10-22 16:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x50b901…
10-22 16:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0x065f81…
10-22 16:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x5d03d6…
10-22 16:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0xf315d2…
10-22 16:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xcea072…
10-22 16:00:11	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	England	BUY	6	23¢	$2	0x1421a6…
10-22 15:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	69¢	$2	0x10d0b2…
10-22 15:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x24bb17…
10-22 15:57:27	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	Sri Lanka	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0xd76ed4…
10-22 15:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0xe22ebb…
10-22 15:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x811fef…
10-22 15:47:23	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	Sri Lanka	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x150af9…
10-22 15:43:23	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	Sri Lanka	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x9ca11d…
10-20 05:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x4128a3…
10-20 04:59:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x72c512…
10-20 04:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0xee66af…
10-20 04:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x5ca30b…
10-20 04:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0x9e15ab…
10-20 04:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xbbe709…
10-20 04:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x165681…
10-20 04:21:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x075a8a…
10-20 04:18:27	Will MrBeast's next video get less than 109 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x38f607…
10-20 04:17:32	Will MrBeast's next video get less than 109 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x8aacb7…
10-19 02:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x869913…
10-19 02:22:59	Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 104 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0xb062a0…
10-19 02:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x647f4d…
10-19 02:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xe892e7…
10-19 02:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0x5cbd19…
10-19 02:11:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xa714aa…
10-19 02:09:38	Will MrBeast's next video get 104 million or more views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x95ffe6…
10-19 02:09:26	Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 104 million views on day 2?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x0877bb…
10-17 20:01:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x0e0bfe…
10-17 18:41:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	88	0¢	$0	0x8ea271…
10-17 01:51:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x95a4e3…
10-17 01:51:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x02054a…
10-17 01:49:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x485c95…
10-17 01:48:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	SELL	66	4¢	$3	0xb093f5…
10-16 16:59:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xfb240c…
10-16 16:29:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 16:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xe58891…
10-16 16:29:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 16:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x391bb4…
10-16 16:13:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x2c4fbb…
10-16 16:12:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xee3d7a…
10-16 16:10:37	lol mvk kc 2026 10 16	MVK Esports	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x50014d…
10-16 05:55:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x362ee2…
10-16 05:53:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0xab0529…
10-15 18:34:56	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x6af18c…