Far-Ranch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.7%

Resolved

Trades

122

lifetime

Volume

$8.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$67

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 05-09 11:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

60% — —

Other

25% — —

Crypto

15% 67% +$1

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$1.6K	6,108	6,108	+0	open	—	03-23 11:44
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$1.2K	4,276	4,276	+0	open	—	04-06 02:44
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$815	19,064	19,064	+0	open	—	02-09 23:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$649	260,437	0	+260,437	open	—	04-10 19:32
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	8	$470	52,491	25,491	+27,000	open	—	04-26 13:10
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$399	112,340	0	+112,340	open	—	03-17 09:55
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	5	$350	212,210	5,000	+207,210	open	—	03-17 00:12
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$303	76,338	35,918	+40,420	open	—	04-26 13:10
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$303	78,687	53,687	+25,000	open	—	03-01 19:25
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$249	34,508	0	+34,508	open	—	01-28 13:24
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	2	$165	12,323	12,323	+0	open	—	02-27 22:33
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$149	37,328	0	+37,328	open	—	03-14 20:41
will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 1	2	$149	304	304	+0	open	—	02-28 07:22
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	2	$129	1,807	1,807	+0	open	—	02-27 22:38
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$110	54,920	0	+54,920	open	—	01-21 22:31
btc updown 5m 1774356000	4	$94	800	200	+600	open	—	03-24 12:45
will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	1	$89	11,233	0	+11,233	open	—	02-28 07:22
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	2	$87	4,014	0	+4,014	open	—	02-09 23:48
will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 2	1	$83	1,376	0	+1,376	open	—	03-02 12:44
will pete hegseth ban claude by march 31	1	$65	10,598	0	+10,598	open	—	02-27 22:38
will bitcoin dip to 60k february 23 march 1	1	$54	4,194	0	+4,194	open	—	03-01 14:14
btc updown 5m 1774716000	6	$52	476	0	+476	open	—	03-28 16:43
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	1	$50	2,273	0	+2,273	open	—	02-19 13:43
will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 2	1	$49	964	0	+964	open	—	03-01 19:28
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	1	$49	710	0	+710	open	—	02-19 13:43
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	2	$49	28,900	0	+28,900	open	—	02-27 17:50
btc updown 5m 1775323200	4	$44	151	9	+141	open	—	04-04 17:22
btc updown 5m 1774357500	4	$30	968	0	+968	open	—	03-24 13:09
btc updown 5m 1775322600	2	$29	21	20	+1	open	—	04-04 17:15
btc updown 5m 1774361100	2	$23	44	44	+0	open	—	03-24 14:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 11:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	274	2¢	$6	0x5bd8e7…
05-07 14:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x5867d8…
05-06 08:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x75553f…
04-26 13:10:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40,420	0¢	$40	0x121b7a…
04-26 13:10:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27,000	0¢	$54	0xb3aca6…
04-10 19:32:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	99,360	0¢	$99	0x14df8c…
04-09 19:26:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	79,400	0¢	$79	0x10ec37…
04-09 11:18:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	29,780	0¢	$89	0x6d37bc…
04-08 18:57:35	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	2,808	1¢	$17	0x8118b0…
04-08 18:57:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,807	1¢	$17	0x12c4dc…
04-08 01:27:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	19,018	0¢	$95	0x96539d…
04-08 00:49:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	10,192	1¢	$92	0x2bdde8…
04-08 00:46:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	9,817	1¢	$88	0xe81c5e…
04-08 00:45:51	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	10,062	1¢	$89	0xdac3fc…
04-07 16:08:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,807	1¢	$20	0xca920c…
04-07 16:06:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	25,000	0¢	$75	0xdb5641…
04-07 16:06:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25,000	0¢	$100	0x9bc37e…
04-06 10:14:35	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,918	0¢	$33	0x60e84c…
04-06 10:14:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	21,978	1¢	$132	0xb8ad51…
04-06 02:44:51	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	3,333	16¢	$533	0x20d609…
04-04 17:39:49	btc updown 5m 1775324100	Up	SELL	43	1¢	$0	0x9dd988…
04-04 17:35:51	btc updown 5m 1775324100	Up	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x396d25…
04-04 17:35:43	btc updown 5m 1775324100	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x30419c…
04-04 17:22:33	btc updown 5m 1775323200	Down	BUY	130	21¢	$27	0xac803f…
04-04 17:21:21	btc updown 5m 1775323200	Up	SELL	9	73¢	$7	0x1b857f…
04-04 17:20:55	btc updown 5m 1775323500	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3416d5…
04-04 17:20:31	btc updown 5m 1775323200	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xec17fa…
04-04 17:19:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,286	1¢	$100	0x5495cc…
04-04 17:16:31	btc updown 5m 1775323200	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2d9550…
04-04 17:16:19	btc updown 5m 1775322900	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x2cd367…
04-04 17:15:41	btc updown 5m 1775322600	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xcff99d…
04-04 17:07:55	btc updown 5m 1775322600	Up	BUY	21	39¢	$8	0x64bfbc…
04-04 17:07:35	btc updown 5m 1775322300	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xb6f37b…
04-04 16:36:53	btc updown 5m 1775320800	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xf79c09…
04-04 16:35:43	btc updown 5m 1775320500	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xa744c7…
04-04 16:35:37	btc updown 5m 1775320500	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xb4d2cc…
04-04 16:34:41	btc updown 5m 1775320500	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x916515…
04-04 16:34:33	btc updown 5m 1775320500	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x36e8a8…
04-04 16:32:57	btc updown 5m 1775320200	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x2bb021…
04-04 16:32:51	btc updown 5m 1775320200	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xdffe7b…
04-04 16:08:31	btc updown 5m 1775318700	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x58a8ff…
04-04 16:08:25	btc updown 5m 1775318700	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xbee5ea…
04-04 15:31:49	btc updown 5m 1775316600	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x57729d…
04-04 15:31:41	btc updown 5m 1775316600	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x05da8a…
04-04 15:31:37	btc updown 5m 1775316600	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xa2cd51…
04-04 13:18:21	btc updown 5m 1775308500	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x8ad152…
04-04 13:18:15	btc updown 5m 1775308500	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xf03bd0…
04-04 13:06:27	btc updown 5m 1775307900	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x3df976…
04-04 13:06:17	btc updown 5m 1775307900	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x890959…
04-04 13:05:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	3,333	6¢	$200	0x3476b2…
03-28 16:43:43	btc updown 5m 1774716000	Up	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0xa1e704…
03-28 16:43:13	btc updown 5m 1774716000	Up	BUY	113	9¢	$10	0x903d7a…
03-28 16:42:59	btc updown 5m 1774716000	Up	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x3206e0…
03-28 16:42:39	btc updown 5m 1774716000	Up	BUY	103	10¢	$10	0x3f5c7a…
03-28 16:42:27	btc updown 5m 1774716000	Up	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0x5e0a54…
03-28 16:40:41	btc updown 5m 1774716000	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x4f2872…
03-25 22:26:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	942	33¢	$311	0x8b0cf9…
03-24 14:31:19	btc updown 5m 1774362600	Down	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0xb18004…
03-24 14:31:11	btc updown 5m 1774362600	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x671b8c…
03-24 14:23:17	btc updown 5m 1774362000	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x849e86…
03-24 14:08:53	btc updown 5m 1774361100	Down	SELL	44	44¢	$19	0xcfc3a6…
03-24 14:07:45	btc updown 5m 1774361100	Down	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0xdc4c00…
03-24 13:09:19	btc updown 5m 1774357500	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x6a3acb…
03-24 13:08:51	btc updown 5m 1774357500	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x6c15a0…
03-24 13:07:29	btc updown 5m 1774357500	Up	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x08c6c7…
03-24 13:07:23	btc updown 5m 1774357500	Up	BUY	118	8¢	$10	0x78d508…
03-24 12:53:25	btc updown 5m 1774356600	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfb9ef5…
03-24 12:53:15	btc updown 5m 1774356600	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4d6354…
03-24 12:51:25	btc updown 5m 1774356600	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x23b5d2…
03-24 12:51:19	btc updown 5m 1774356600	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xf09ad2…
03-24 12:50:41	btc updown 5m 1774356600	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x1d4f70…
03-24 12:45:11	btc updown 5m 1774356000	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x22adb5…
03-24 12:45:03	btc updown 5m 1774356000	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x62dac5…
03-24 12:44:15	btc updown 5m 1774356000	Down	SELL	200	39¢	$78	0x13a7e4…
03-24 12:43:29	btc updown 5m 1774356000	Down	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xb431a9…
03-23 21:49:29	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,918	0¢	$55	0x841afe…
03-23 21:49:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7,692	1¢	$100	0xc379de…
03-23 11:44:35	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	6,108	20¢	$1,222	0xdb641e…
03-21 19:47:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	942	20¢	$188	0x016d0d…
03-19 14:12:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	5,836	7¢	$409	0xbb65d5…
03-19 10:33:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	272	7¢	$19	0xaf51a6…
03-19 10:32:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	706	3¢	$19	0x19f730…
03-18 21:11:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	706	4¢	$28	0x20434b…
03-17 09:55:59	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	24,882	0¢	$100	0x748426…
03-17 00:12:51	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	24,908	0¢	$100	0xe3daeb…
03-17 00:12:37	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	80,000	0¢	$80	0x705639…
03-14 20:41:29	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	37,328	0¢	$149	0x4b6d83…
03-14 19:47:09	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	50,125	0¢	$100	0xf2215f…
03-14 19:47:03	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	79,000	0¢	$79	0xad5b75…
03-12 19:42:31	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	48,210	0¢	$96	0x873675…
03-10 22:18:55	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	12,425	1¢	$99	0x2d2e1d…
03-02 12:44:13	will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 2	Yes	BUY	1,376	6¢	$83	0x9112f8…
03-01 19:28:03	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 2	Yes	BUY	964	5¢	$49	0x8dd54b…
03-01 19:25:17	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	25,000	0¢	$50	0x5a6815…
03-01 14:14:35	will bitcoin dip to 60k february 23 march 1	Yes	BUY	4,194	1¢	$54	0x6411d2…
03-01 14:12:47	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	53,687	0¢	$54	0x794c09…
03-01 13:55:53	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	49,710	0¢	$99	0xeca802…
02-28 21:51:15	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	3,977	2¢	$99	0x324f3a…
02-28 07:22:27	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	Yes	BUY	11,233	1¢	$89	0xb2f88d…
02-28 07:22:01	will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 1	Yes	SELL	304	29¢	$89	0xbf0363…