Far-Ranch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.82K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

34.0%

Resolved

Trades

146

lifetime

Volume

$11.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$82

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 07-29 08:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Other

49% 0% -$5,173

Politics

41% 38% +$835

Crypto

10% 41% -$415

Tech

1% 0% -$65

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-29).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$1.6K	6,108	6,108	+0	No	+$794	03-23 11:44
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$1.2K	4,276	4,276	+0	Yes	+$456	04-06 02:44
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	8	$1.2K	95,131	0	+95,131	No	-$1,199	06-11 21:42
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$815	19,064	19,064	+0	Yes	+$616	02-09 23:45
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	7	$784	202,356	0	+202,356	No	-$784	06-11 21:42
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$649	260,437	0	+260,437	Yes	-$649	04-10 19:32
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$539	19,598	0	+19,598	No	-$539	06-14 21:55
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$500	27,700	0	+27,700	No	-$500	06-15 23:24
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	8	$470	52,491	25,491	+27,000	No	-$134	04-26 13:10
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$400	49,357	0	+49,357	No	-$400	06-14 21:55
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$399	112,340	0	+112,340	No	-$399	03-17 09:55
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	5	$350	212,210	5,000	+207,210	No	-$260	03-17 00:12
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$303	76,338	35,918	+40,420	No	-$87	04-26 13:10
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$303	78,687	53,687	+25,000	Yes	-$195	03-01 19:25
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$262	14,843	0	+14,843	No	-$262	06-15 23:25
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$249	34,508	0	+34,508	No	-$249	01-28 13:24
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	2	$165	12,323	12,323	+0	No	-$35	02-27 22:33
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$149	37,328	0	+37,328	Yes	-$149	03-14 20:41
will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 1	2	$149	304	304	+0	No	+$29	02-28 07:22
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	2	$129	1,807	1,807	+0	No	-$10	02-27 22:38
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$110	54,920	0	+54,920	No	-$110	01-21 22:31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$99	24,778	0	+24,778	No	-$99	07-29 08:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 12:40 UTC	4	$94	800	200	+600	Down	+$62	03-24 12:45
will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	1	$89	11,233	0	+11,233	No	-$89	02-28 07:22
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	2	$87	4,014	0	+4,014	No	-$87	02-09 23:48
will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 2	1	$83	1,376	0	+1,376	No	-$83	03-02 12:44
will pete hegseth ban claude by march 31	1	$65	10,598	0	+10,598	Yes	-$65	02-27 22:38
will bitcoin dip to 60k february 23 march 1	1	$54	4,194	0	+4,194	No	-$54	03-01 14:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 16:40 UTC	6	$52	476	0	+476	Down	-$52	03-28 16:43
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	1	$50	2,273	0	+2,273	No	-$50	02-19 13:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-29 08:26:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24,778	0¢	$99	0xdaa28f…
06-15 23:25:19	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,843	2¢	$262	0x54091f…
06-15 23:24:57	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27,700	2¢	$500	0xe27216…
06-14 21:55:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,415	3¢	$278	0x7cbf16…
06-14 21:55:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,132	1¢	$100	0x902e6c…
06-11 21:43:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,270	2¢	$81	0x888987…
06-11 21:43:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,500	1¢	$100	0x72e981…
06-11 21:42:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	99,000	0¢	$99	0x4d630a…
06-11 21:42:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33,333	0¢	$100	0xf11365…
06-07 05:12:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,118	0¢	$41	0x717bac…
06-03 18:39:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,913	3¢	$180	0x817f1d…
06-03 18:39:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24,725	1¢	$200	0xd6847e…
05-25 17:41:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,225	1¢	$85	0xe2722b…
05-25 17:41:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13,427	1¢	$200	0xd0c4dd…
05-22 20:56:06	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,205	1¢	$90	0x1570c7…
05-22 20:55:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20,000	0¢	$100	0xe54fe4…
05-22 09:50:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,382	1¢	$94	0x51708e…
05-09 11:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	274	2¢	$6	0x5bd8e7…
05-07 14:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x5867d8…
05-07 14:33:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,516	3¢	$261	0x70b13a…
05-07 14:32:52	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,286	1¢	$100	0x66470b…
05-06 08:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x75553f…
05-06 08:28:00	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,217	3¢	$296	0x762c0d…
05-06 08:27:44	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12,838	1¢	$77	0xb25ca1…
05-06 08:27:44	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17,776	1¢	$123	0x31c501…
04-29 18:12:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,932	4¢	$117	0xfaa678…
04-29 18:11:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24,231	1¢	$200	0x210c91…
04-26 13:10:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40,420	0¢	$40	0x121b7a…
04-26 13:10:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27,000	0¢	$54	0xb3aca6…
04-10 19:32:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	99,360	0¢	$99	0x14df8c…
04-09 19:26:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	79,400	0¢	$79	0x10ec37…
04-09 11:18:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	29,780	0¢	$89	0x6d37bc…
04-08 18:57:35	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	2,808	1¢	$17	0x8118b0…
04-08 18:57:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,807	1¢	$17	0x12c4dc…
04-08 01:27:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	19,018	0¢	$95	0x96539d…
04-08 00:49:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	10,192	1¢	$92	0x2bdde8…
04-08 00:46:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	9,817	1¢	$88	0xe81c5e…
04-08 00:45:51	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	10,062	1¢	$89	0xdac3fc…
04-07 16:08:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,807	1¢	$20	0xca920c…
04-07 16:06:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	25,000	0¢	$75	0xdb5641…
04-07 16:06:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25,000	0¢	$100	0x9bc37e…
04-06 10:14:35	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,918	0¢	$33	0x60e84c…
04-06 10:14:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	21,978	1¢	$132	0xb8ad51…
04-06 02:44:51	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	3,333	16¢	$533	0x20d609…
04-04 17:39:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:35 UTC	Up	SELL	43	1¢	$0	0x9dd988…
04-04 17:35:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:35 UTC	Up	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x396d25…
04-04 17:35:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:35 UTC	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x30419c…
04-04 17:22:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	130	21¢	$27	0xac803f…
04-04 17:21:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:20 UTC	Up	SELL	9	73¢	$7	0x1b857f…
04-04 17:20:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3416d5…
04-04 17:20:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xec17fa…
04-04 17:19:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,286	1¢	$100	0x5495cc…
04-04 17:16:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2d9550…
04-04 17:16:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x2cd367…
04-04 17:15:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:10 UTC	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xcff99d…
04-04 17:07:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:10 UTC	Up	BUY	21	39¢	$8	0x64bfbc…
04-04 17:07:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 17:05 UTC	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xb6f37b…
04-04 16:36:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xf79c09…
04-04 16:35:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 16:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xa744c7…
04-04 16:35:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 16:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xb4d2cc…
04-04 16:34:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 16:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x916515…
04-04 16:34:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 16:35 UTC	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x36e8a8…
04-04 16:32:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x2bb021…
04-04 16:32:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 16:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xdffe7b…
04-04 16:08:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x58a8ff…
04-04 16:08:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 16:05 UTC	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xbee5ea…
04-04 15:31:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x57729d…
04-04 15:31:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x05da8a…
04-04 15:31:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xa2cd51…
04-04 13:18:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x8ad152…
04-04 13:18:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xf03bd0…
04-04 13:06:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x3df976…
04-04 13:06:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x890959…
04-04 13:05:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	3,333	6¢	$200	0x3476b2…
03-28 16:43:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0xa1e704…
03-28 16:43:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	113	9¢	$10	0x903d7a…
03-28 16:42:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x3206e0…
03-28 16:42:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	103	10¢	$10	0x3f5c7a…
03-28 16:42:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0x5e0a54…
03-28 16:40:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x4f2872…
03-25 22:26:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	942	33¢	$311	0x8b0cf9…
03-24 14:31:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0xb18004…
03-24 14:31:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x671b8c…
03-24 14:23:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x849e86…
03-24 14:08:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 14:05 UTC	Down	SELL	44	44¢	$19	0xcfc3a6…
03-24 14:07:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 14:05 UTC	Down	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0xdc4c00…
03-24 13:09:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x6a3acb…
03-24 13:08:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x6c15a0…
03-24 13:07:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x08c6c7…
03-24 13:07:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	118	8¢	$10	0x78d508…
03-24 12:53:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfb9ef5…
03-24 12:53:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4d6354…
03-24 12:51:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x23b5d2…
03-24 12:51:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xf09ad2…
03-24 12:50:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x1d4f70…
03-24 12:45:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 12:40 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x22adb5…
03-24 12:45:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 12:40 UTC	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x62dac5…
03-24 12:44:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 12:40 UTC	Down	SELL	200	39¢	$78	0x13a7e4…
03-24 12:43:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 12:40 UTC	Down	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xb431a9…
03-23 21:49:29	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,918	0¢	$55	0x841afe…