Harmful-Incident — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$360

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$33.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$717

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 06-07 19:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

51% 100% +$333

Tech

24% — —

Other

11% — —

Crypto

9% 86% +$27

Sports

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	1	$5.2K	7,034	0	+7,034	open	—	06-07 19:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$4.5K	4,862	0	+4,862	open	—	05-22 13:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$4.0K	4,195	1,301	+2,895	open	—	05-21 18:22
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	1	$3.0K	3,971	0	+3,971	open	—	06-02 17:53
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A	1	$2.5K	2,885	0	+2,885	open	—	05-21 07:45
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?	2	$2.5K	1,622	1,622	+0	open	—	05-13 16:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$2.3K	1,333	1,333	+0	open	—	05-13 17:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$1.6K	1,739	0	+1,739	No	+$139	05-07 15:49
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1.3K	1,546	0	+1,546	open	—	05-13 16:58
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals	1	$1000	1,493	0	+1,493	open	—	05-21 18:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$1000	1,194	0	+1,194	No	+$194	05-07 15:48
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs MANA eSports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Group A	1	$1000	1,133	0	+1,133	open	—	05-23 09:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$1000	1,430	0	+1,430	open	—	05-07 15:49
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$700	808	0	+808	open	—	05-13 17:02
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$600	645	0	+645	open	—	05-13 17:03
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	2	$336	600	0	+600	open	—	05-23 14:59
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	1	$200	308	0	+308	open	—	05-21 18:19
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$131	134	0	+134	open	—	05-27 17:17
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	1	$125	130	0	+130	open	—	05-27 10:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	6	$116	186	186	+0	open	—	05-24 16:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	5	$107	621	121	+500	Up	$-3	05-08 02:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	1	$100	115	0	+115	open	—	05-24 16:53
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	1	$100	112	0	+112	open	—	05-26 07:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	3	$85	75	49	+26	Up	+$11	05-08 04:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	1	$25	56	0	+56	open	—	05-23 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	1	$25	31	0	+31	Up	+$6	05-08 05:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	1	$25	30	0	+30	Down	+$5	05-08 02:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	1	$25	26	0	+26	Up	+$1	05-08 02:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	1	$25	26	0	+26	Down	+$1	05-08 05:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	1	$24	30	0	+30	Down	+$6	05-08 02:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 19:06:09	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	7,034	73¢	$5,166	0x0bf7a1…
06-02 17:53:32	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,971	76¢	$2,999	0x131c9c…
05-27 17:17:41	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	134	98¢	$131	0x537ae1…
05-27 10:22:52	LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Gen.G	BUY	130	96¢	$125	0xceb466…
05-26 07:57:06	LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x799ff8…
05-24 16:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0xe0d5e9…
05-24 16:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	131	8¢	$10	0xb920e2…
05-24 16:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0x94e516…
05-24 16:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xe87fe2…
05-24 16:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	44	69¢	$30	0x18da70…
05-24 16:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x6e34be…
05-24 16:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xba1428…
05-23 20:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x0b67bc…
05-23 14:59:42	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	400	56¢	$224	0xc2b8eb…
05-23 14:59:21	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x2d7343…
05-23 09:09:31	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs MANA eSports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Group A	GenOne	BUY	1,133	88¢	$1,000	0x14ef65…
05-22 13:39:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2,913	93¢	$2,700	0x80d6a9…
05-22 13:38:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1,949	92¢	$1,800	0xb9d900…
05-21 18:23:22	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	1,493	67¢	$1,000	0xce0173…
05-21 18:22:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,301	80¢	$1,040	0x3c83e6…
05-21 18:19:24	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	308	65¢	$200	0xe10f11…
05-21 07:45:10	Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A	paiN	BUY	2,885	87¢	$2,500	0x8c36c0…
05-13 17:03:22	Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	645	93¢	$600	0x3724bd…
05-13 17:02:26	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	808	87¢	$700	0x287c4b…
05-13 17:00:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	SELL	1,333	100¢	$1,331	0x7b9ff4…
05-13 16:58:46	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,546	84¢	$1,299	0xbcb359…
05-13 16:56:38	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?	No	SELL	1,622	80¢	$1,298	0x8dcd63…
05-13 12:51:47	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?	No	BUY	1,622	74¢	$1,200	0xba0cc6…
05-12 02:19:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,410	83¢	$2,000	0xdca8bd…
05-08 05:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x56b9b2…
05-08 05:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xbe1daa…
05-08 04:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x0ed2ab…
05-08 04:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	49	71¢	$35	0x7f78c9…
05-08 04:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x9db3b1…
05-08 02:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x5ef889…
05-08 02:36:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x65f01e…
05-08 02:34:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x31da7d…
05-08 02:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x80c00b…
05-08 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x04f0b8…
05-08 02:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	96	28¢	$27	0xf94970…
05-08 02:32:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x90e29a…
05-08 02:28:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x2247c1…
05-07 15:49:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	1,739	92¢	$1,600	0x2e940f…
05-07 15:49:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,786	56¢	$1,000	0x37f0c5…
05-07 15:49:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,430	70¢	$1,000	0xb379cd…
05-07 15:48:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1,333	75¢	$1,000	0x7340ab…
05-07 15:48:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1,194	84¢	$1,000	0x645d36…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	23	$85.5K	964	06-01 04:51
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	22	$34.2K	335	06-09 18:44
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	16	$11.9K	3,339	06-09 15:58
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	15	$104.8K	1,552	06-09 15:27
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	14	$6.32K	474	05-27 07:56
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	13	$59.8K	6,386	06-09 14:24
Sympathetic-Back 0x0d2d…7ff5	12	$132.1K	4,982	05-27 10:30
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	12	$9.61K	935	05-24 16:59