Harmful-Incident — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.6K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$50.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$877

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 06-07 19:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

40% 75% -$3,227

Politics

34% 78% +$437

Tech

16% 0% -$8,165

Crypto

6% 75% +$84

Sports

3% 67% +$264

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-07).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	2	$5.4K	3,056	3,056	+0	open	—	05-22 13:39
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	1	$5.2K	7,034	0	+7,034	Yes	-$5,166	06-07 19:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$4.5K	4,862	0	+4,862	No	+$362	05-22 13:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$4.0K	4,195	1,301	+2,895	No	+$935	05-21 18:22
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23?	1	$3.3K	3,549	0	+3,549	Yes	-$3,300	05-23 19:59
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	1	$3.0K	3,971	0	+3,971	Yes	-$2,999	06-02 17:53
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A	1	$2.5K	2,885	0	+2,885	paiN	+$385	05-21 07:45
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?	2	$2.5K	1,622	1,622	+0	No	+$98	05-13 16:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$2.3K	1,333	1,333	+0	No	+$331	05-13 17:00
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19?	1	$2.1K	2,577	0	+2,577	No	+$490	05-19 17:36
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10?	1	$1.7K	1,977	0	+1,977	No	+$277	05-10 10:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$1.6K	1,739	0	+1,739	No	+$139	05-07 15:49
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1.3K	1,546	0	+1,546	No	-$1,299	05-13 16:58
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals	1	$1000	1,493	0	+1,493	Pittsburgh Pirates	+$493	05-21 18:23
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In	1	$1000	1,188	0	+1,188	Team WE	-$1,000	05-23 09:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$1000	1,194	0	+1,194	No	+$194	05-07 15:48
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-23?	1	$1000	1,282	0	+1,282	No	+$282	05-23 09:07
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs MANA eSports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Group A	1	$1000	1,133	0	+1,133	GenOne	+$133	05-23 09:09
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-05-23?	1	$1000	1,163	0	+1,163	No	+$163	05-23 09:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$1000	1,430	0	+1,430	No	+$431	05-07 15:49
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-23?	1	$700	972	0	+972	Yes	-$700	05-23 09:08
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$700	808	0	+808	No	-$700	05-13 17:02
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$600	645	0	+645	Yes	+$45	05-13 17:03
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	2	$336	600	0	+600	Knicks	-$336	05-23 14:59
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	1	$200	308	0	+308	Knicks	+$108	05-21 18:19
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$131	134	0	+134	No	+$3	05-27 17:17
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	1	$125	130	0	+130	Gen.G	+$5	05-27 10:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	6	$116	186	186	+0	Up	-$34	05-24 16:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	5	$107	621	121	+500	Up	-$3	05-08 02:34
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-23?	1	$100	127	0	+127	No	+$27	05-23 10:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 19:06:09	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	7,034	73¢	$5,166	0x0bf7a1…
06-02 17:53:32	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,971	76¢	$2,999	0x131c9c…
05-27 17:17:41	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	134	98¢	$131	0x537ae1…
05-27 10:22:52	LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Gen.G	BUY	130	96¢	$125	0xceb466…
05-26 07:57:06	LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x799ff8…
05-24 16:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0xe0d5e9…
05-24 16:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	131	8¢	$10	0xb920e2…
05-24 16:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0x94e516…
05-24 16:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xe87fe2…
05-24 16:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	44	69¢	$30	0x18da70…
05-24 16:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x6e34be…
05-24 16:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xba1428…
05-23 20:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x0b67bc…
05-23 19:59:34	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23?	No	BUY	3,549	93¢	$3,300	0xa4c60b…
05-23 14:59:42	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	400	56¢	$224	0xc2b8eb…
05-23 14:59:21	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x2d7343…
05-23 10:57:04	Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-23?	No	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xdfb708…
05-23 09:09:31	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs MANA eSports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Group A	GenOne	BUY	1,133	88¢	$1,000	0x14ef65…
05-23 09:08:34	Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-23?	No	BUY	972	72¢	$700	0xefd0e6…
05-23 09:07:38	Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-05-23?	No	BUY	1,163	86¢	$1,000	0x93664d…
05-23 09:07:11	Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-23?	No	BUY	1,282	78¢	$1,000	0x88e77e…
05-23 09:03:22	LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In	LNG Esports	BUY	1,188	84¢	$1,000	0xb361ed…
05-22 13:39:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2,913	93¢	$2,700	0x80d6a9…
05-22 13:39:04	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	SELL	3,056	89¢	$2,715	0x761e12…
05-22 13:38:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1,949	92¢	$1,800	0xb9d900…
05-21 18:23:22	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	1,493	67¢	$1,000	0xce0173…
05-21 18:22:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,301	80¢	$1,040	0x3c83e6…
05-21 18:21:44	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	BUY	3,056	88¢	$2,700	0xf3617f…
05-21 18:19:24	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	308	65¢	$200	0xe10f11…
05-21 07:45:10	Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A	paiN	BUY	2,885	87¢	$2,500	0x8c36c0…
05-19 17:36:49	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19?	No	BUY	2,577	81¢	$2,087	0x801a7c…
05-13 17:03:22	Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	645	93¢	$600	0x3724bd…
05-13 17:02:26	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	808	87¢	$700	0x287c4b…
05-13 17:00:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	SELL	1,333	100¢	$1,331	0x7b9ff4…
05-13 16:58:46	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,546	84¢	$1,299	0xbcb359…
05-13 16:56:38	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?	No	SELL	1,622	80¢	$1,298	0x8dcd63…
05-13 12:51:47	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?	No	BUY	1,622	74¢	$1,200	0xba0cc6…
05-12 02:19:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,410	83¢	$2,000	0xdca8bd…
05-10 10:40:24	Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10?	No	BUY	1,977	86¢	$1,700	0x804406…
05-08 05:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x56b9b2…
05-08 05:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xbe1daa…
05-08 04:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x0ed2ab…
05-08 04:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	49	71¢	$35	0x7f78c9…
05-08 04:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x9db3b1…
05-08 02:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x5ef889…
05-08 02:36:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x65f01e…
05-08 02:34:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x31da7d…
05-08 02:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x80c00b…
05-08 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x04f0b8…
05-08 02:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	96	28¢	$27	0xf94970…
05-08 02:32:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x90e29a…
05-08 02:28:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x2247c1…
05-07 15:49:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	1,739	92¢	$1,600	0x2e940f…
05-07 15:49:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,786	56¢	$1,000	0x37f0c5…
05-07 15:49:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,430	70¢	$1,000	0xb379cd…
05-07 15:48:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1,333	75¢	$1,000	0x7340ab…
05-07 15:48:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1,194	84¢	$1,000	0x645d36…