Insubstantial-Newsstand — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$238

Unrealized P&L

+$566

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

188 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$466

$25.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$133

Open exposure

$548

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-07 12:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 40% +$122

Other

37% 87% +$926

Tech

3% 100% +$32

Politics

2% 50% +$80

Sports

0% 0% -$49

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	-500	-$375	37¢	$-185	+$190	05-18 14:10
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	-500	-$250	36¢	$-177	+$73	05-25 06:32
will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	+200	$174	82¢	$163	-$11	09-29 09:46
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-393	-$270	5¢	$-21	+$249	05-06 14:16
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	-350	-$70	0¢	$-1	+$69	11-07 12:26
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	-380	$3	0¢	$-1	-$3	11-07 12:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 90k on january 3	29	$4.7K	3,952	3,952	+0	Yes	-$86	01-03 14:57
over 100m committed to the ranger public sale 221 979 762 217 192	9	$2.2K	1,444	1,300	+144	No	+$120	01-10 15:57
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$2.0K	1,100	1,100	+0	No	+$136	01-15 14:05
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	14	$1.9K	1,771	1,800	-29	No	+$444	03-18 02:29
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	7	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$50	02-05 15:19
ETHGAS FDV above $100M one day after launch?	6	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$106	01-21 15:24
Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?	9	$1.6K	1,200	543	+657	Yes	+$91	01-22 12:01
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$1.1K	2	1,201	-1,199	No	-$84	01-21 09:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$829	500	500	+0	Yes	+$81	07-14 18:44
will solana reach 100 in june 2026	2	$798	800	0	+800	No	+$2	06-27 06:09
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	7	$707	541	473	+68	No	+$12	02-07 18:28
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	2	$543	300	300	+0	open	—	09-09 13:03
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$498	300	300	+0	No	-$18	05-29 18:25
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	2	$491	300	300	+0	Yes	+$85	09-08 21:42
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	5	$482	600	600	+0	open	—	10-30 12:50
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	3	$375	0	500	-500	open	—	05-18 14:10
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$270	0	393	-393	open	—	05-06 14:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?	1	$267	300	0	+300	Yes	+$33	05-31 21:18
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	15	$250	0	500	-500	open	—	05-25 06:32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	4	$247	240	240	+0	No	+$46	05-18 17:16
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$238	0	283	-283	No	+$238	08-25 16:20
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	5	$214	200	200	+0	No	+$30	02-07 17:37
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	6	$191	206	586	-380	open	—	11-07 12:26
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	2	$178	100	100	+0	No	+$18	05-27 13:57
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$176	100	100	+0	Yes	-$6	03-18 21:31
will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	1	$174	200	0	+200	open	—	09-29 09:46
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	1	$128	160	0	+160	Yes	+$32	09-04 12:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	1	$108	140	0	+140	Yes	+$32	05-08 13:35
Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?	5	$99	910	0	+910	No	-$99	05-27 02:26
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$93	170	0	+170	No	-$93	05-26 16:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 12:26:43	Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	350	20¢	$70	0x5eeae1…
11-07 12:26:33	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	586	16¢	$94	0x5066d2…
10-30 12:50:54	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	394	46¢	$181	0xd37c20…
10-30 10:46:13	Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	20¢	$24	0x12bde6…
10-30 10:45:52	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	206	47¢	$97	0xc30f5e…
09-29 09:46:41	will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x45c262…
09-09 13:03:12	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	87¢	$261	0xe6cc50…
09-08 21:42:04	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	SELL	300	96¢	$288	0x840788…
09-06 01:39:42	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	592	34¢	$201	0x77f516…
09-05 22:14:18	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x8b8996…
09-05 19:04:48	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x4c945a…
09-05 13:39:57	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	300	68¢	$203	0x4225bd…
09-05 06:11:45	Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	18¢	$16	0x84a221…
09-04 21:36:48	Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	18¢	$6	0x6d14ac…
09-04 12:14:16	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	80¢	$128	0xd3f49c…
08-30 12:28:07	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	94¢	$282	0x7b5ccb…
08-25 16:20:03	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	282	84¢	$237	0x011d65…
08-21 05:35:28	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x8666c4…
07-14 18:44:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	91¢	$455	0x3b44c8…
07-14 11:21:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x568b61…
07-12 22:42:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	78¢	$312	0xbc9b38…
06-27 06:09:34	will solana reach 100 in june 2026	No	BUY	181	100¢	$181	0xdc750b…
06-27 05:54:05	will solana reach 100 in june 2026	No	BUY	619	100¢	$618	0xf42b70…
06-06 10:00:42	will wti crude oil wti hit low 85 in june 342	Yes	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x1f42d7…
05-31 21:18:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?	Yes	BUY	300	89¢	$267	0xe07294…
05-29 18:25:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	248	80¢	$199	0x4c1a3e…
05-29 18:25:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0x031f58…
05-29 18:24:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	49	80¢	$40	0x7392ab…
05-27 13:57:09	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xa0898c…
05-27 02:26:50	Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	554	9¢	$50	0x8a5dd3…
05-27 01:56:46	Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$0	0x9c0433…
05-26 20:02:05	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	470	5¢	$24	0xaf623a…
05-26 20:00:43	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 27?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xab9556…
05-26 17:33:13	Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x9505bd…
05-26 17:33:12	Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	333	14¢	$47	0xd64ca2…
05-26 16:59:46	Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x4ff200…
05-26 16:54:08	Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xce16be…
05-26 16:50:28	Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x845efd…
05-26 16:48:29	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x56cca3…
05-26 16:39:54	Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	14¢	$2	0x51a681…
05-26 16:38:53	Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	63	55¢	$35	0x68fbdf…
05-25 06:32:07	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	48	50¢	$24	0x50c410…
05-25 01:16:44	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25?	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xdc9675…
05-24 22:02:26	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x9de071…
05-24 05:05:09	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xffe12b…
05-23 21:56:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x5f516b…
05-23 15:20:49	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x84bd34…
05-23 14:40:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	86¢	$258	0x0f075e…
05-23 02:04:20	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x4bae3c…
05-22 09:20:28	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x6fe549…
05-21 04:50:12	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xe7ed34…
05-20 14:04:23	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0x47452d…
05-18 17:16:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	240	61¢	$146	0xb23ea5…
05-18 14:10:30	Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	404	75¢	$303	0x959dda…
05-18 07:41:55	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xc7c15c…
05-18 07:41:49	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0xc505b6…
05-13 03:50:50	Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	89	75¢	$67	0x968492…
05-12 12:14:01	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	14	50¢	$7	0xf9ab57…
05-11 11:08:28	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0xbf6ccc…
05-11 07:32:40	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0xc41822…
05-11 06:15:26	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0xeceaec…
05-11 00:54:20	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xb2ae7b…
05-09 17:31:34	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	8¢	$14	0x3c94e8…
05-09 12:54:05	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	60	82¢	$49	0xf77a8b…
05-09 11:08:12	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0xc977b6…
05-08 18:51:49	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08?	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x29d16c…
05-08 18:01:53	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	212	50¢	$106	0x835e6e…
05-08 13:35:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	140	77¢	$108	0x7867ca…
05-07 20:25:49	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xdc6236…
05-07 15:41:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xd2405d…
05-06 19:52:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	87	42¢	$37	0xc22e3b…
05-06 19:51:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x656973…
05-06 19:46:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	150	42¢	$63	0x81bb18…
05-06 14:16:40	Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	391	69¢	$268	0xdeb583…
05-05 21:50:52	Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x87da21…
05-04 17:00:26	Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x9b4bf3…
05-04 16:16:58	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xdd101e…
05-04 14:16:38	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	181	47¢	$85	0x7ce795…
05-03 21:22:54	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x1710ce…
05-03 16:43:40	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x1ce26e…
05-03 16:36:08	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x570f2d…
05-02 22:50:44	Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0x638118…
03-18 21:31:59	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	27	85¢	$23	0xdf12a5…
03-18 21:31:59	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	30	85¢	$25	0x2b5ec1…
03-18 21:31:49	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x4ef5b3…
03-18 21:31:41	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	16	85¢	$14	0x262f40…
03-18 21:20:09	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	17	85¢	$14	0x97df95…
03-18 02:29:43	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0x31dafe…
03-09 15:22:19	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x9274e8…
02-17 22:29:23	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	253	87¢	$220	0x02356b…
02-17 21:58:41	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0x8a57f2…
02-17 21:14:45	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$0	0x690806…
02-13 11:48:03	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	450	65¢	$292	0x4ddc5f…
02-12 23:42:59	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	74	71¢	$53	0x3224ba…
02-12 20:05:59	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	76	71¢	$54	0x308a03…
02-07 18:28:21	Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x68bb8f…
02-07 18:28:13	Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	SELL	63	20¢	$13	0x6ad7f6…
02-07 17:43:11	Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	SELL	337	86¢	$290	0xe5ba89…
02-07 17:43:03	Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	SELL	63	86¢	$54	0x3335cd…
02-07 17:37:27	Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	SELL	192	61¢	$117	0x01a8e7…