Private-Disk — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$175

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

80.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 09-03 12:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Politics

51% 75% -$171

Other

25% 64% -$26

Tech

18% 100% +$15

Sports

4% 75% +$7

Crypto

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		-16	-$16	100¢	$-16	$0	05-02 04:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$241	129	129	+0	Yes	+$1	05-27 01:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$207	216	0	+216	No	+$9	06-03 01:51
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$200	211	0	+211	Yes	-$200	06-09 07:10
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	2	$187	98	98	+0	Yes	+$3	05-21 02:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$151	199	0	+199	No	+$48	05-27 01:32
will ppso win the most seats in the 2026 costa rican legislative assembly election	2	$93	47	47	+0	Yes	+$1	02-03 06:54
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	2	$93	47	47	+0	Yes	+$1	01-28 06:46
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	2	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	03-29 03:33
ukraine officially agrees to a us backed ceasefire framework by march 31 214	2	$37	19	19	+0	No	+$0	03-29 03:33
will israel strike gaza on february 2 2026	1	$36	38	0	+38	No	+$2	02-03 06:57
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$31	0	32	-32	No	-$1	01-02 05:32
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	1	$31	34	0	+34	Yes	+$3	01-06 02:11
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	05-21 02:24
will christian mccaffrey be the 2025 2026 nfl comeback player of the year	1	$30	32	0	+32	Yes	+$2	01-28 06:47
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	1	$29	0	29	-29	No	$0	01-20 01:24
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	2	$27	14	14	+0	Yes	+$1	05-11 13:36
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	2	$27	21	21	+0	Yes	-$9	05-21 02:24
Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	+$0	05-27 01:32
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$26	15	15	+0	Yes	+$4	05-02 04:26
will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	1	$25	37	0	+37	Yes	+$12	04-04 02:01
israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by march 31 2026 824	1	$23	24	0	+24	No	+$1	03-23 02:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$22	0	60	-60	Yes	-$38	04-30 09:30
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	1	$22	25	0	+25	Yes	+$3	05-21 02:25
Iran leadership change by March 13?	1	$21	23	0	+23	No	+$2	03-10 08:29
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$20	22	0	+22	No	+$2	03-10 08:29
over 30m committed to the ranger public sale 951	1	$20	22	0	+22	Yes	+$2	01-09 02:06
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	1	$19	23	0	+23	Yes	+$4	05-02 04:27
will artemis ii launch by february 28	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	02-15 07:29
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	2	$18	20	20	+0	open	—	09-03 12:31
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$17	22	0	+22	Yes	+$6	04-11 07:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-03 12:31:16	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x6d0f14…
06-09 07:12:09	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xc5d973…
06-09 07:10:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xd71e53…
06-03 01:51:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	216	96¢	$207	0xb1c094…
05-27 01:34:34	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x5ee3cf…
05-27 01:32:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	199	76¢	$151	0x6e3c66…
05-27 01:32:23	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	129	94¢	$121	0xab9ea7…
05-27 01:32:09	Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x760316…
05-21 02:25:39	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	89¢	$22	0x414911…
05-21 02:25:20	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	129	93¢	$120	0xab725c…
05-21 02:24:39	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	97¢	$95	0xef7552…
05-21 02:24:32	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	Yes	SELL	21	44¢	$9	0x9cb9d5…
05-21 02:24:27	Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4d5ff6…
05-11 13:36:49	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	Yes	BUY	21	87¢	$18	0x78a97e…
05-11 13:36:17	Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xa17a61…
05-02 04:27:40	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	21	77¢	$16	0x1c211f…
05-02 04:27:24	Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	23	81¢	$19	0xbfeb26…
05-02 04:26:58	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	1,444	1¢	$13	0x6b777c…
05-02 04:26:40	Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x7f2eec…
05-02 04:26:34	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xc51f68…
04-30 09:30:18	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	94¢	$92	0x8549dd…
04-30 09:30:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	37¢	$22	0xf4bf29…
04-11 07:18:29	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	22	75¢	$17	0x70958f…
04-11 07:18:13	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0x8d836c…
04-04 02:01:15	will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	Yes	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x2323d3…
04-04 02:00:15	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x6870db…
03-29 03:34:24	Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$13	0x72b8d7…
03-29 03:33:58	Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x76cbcb…
03-29 03:33:12	ukraine officially agrees to a us backed ceasefire framework by march 31 214	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x702a1a…
03-29 03:33:04	will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xe0ab4e…
03-23 02:56:53	ukraine officially agrees to a us backed ceasefire framework by march 31 214	No	BUY	19	98¢	$18	0x023b4f…
03-23 02:55:19	israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by march 31 2026 824	No	BUY	24	97¢	$23	0x30dc42…
03-10 08:29:43	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0x322d35…
03-10 08:29:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xe37cb9…
03-05 02:17:19	will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xef623a…
03-02 01:57:11	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0x1402b3…
02-15 07:29:15	will artemis ii launch by february 28	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xd8dae4…
02-15 07:28:31	will karmine corp win the lec 2026 versus	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xb18846…
02-13 03:56:59	Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0x6131ff…
02-13 03:56:31	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0x1b948c…
02-03 06:57:16	will israel strike gaza on february 2 2026	No	BUY	38	94¢	$36	0x443f51…
02-03 06:56:10	will giannis antetokounmpo be traded to the miami heat	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x19cf2f…
02-03 06:54:58	will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	Yes	BUY	17	68¢	$11	0x280b71…
02-03 06:54:34	will ppso win the most seats in the 2026 costa rican legislative assembly election	Yes	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0xda7178…
01-28 06:47:59	will christian mccaffrey be the 2025 2026 nfl comeback player of the year	Yes	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x3e8023…
01-28 06:46:57	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	Yes	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0xe867c3…
01-24 02:03:04	will ppso win the most seats in the 2026 costa rican legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0x4ec01d…
01-20 01:25:16	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	Yes	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0x60aaf6…
01-20 01:24:26	Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0xfcd053…
01-09 02:06:20	over 40m committed to the ranger public sale 819 688	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x37d916…
01-09 02:06:10	over 30m committed to the ranger public sale 951	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x8e7566…
01-06 02:11:33	over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	Yes	BUY	34	92¢	$31	0x86db70…
01-02 05:32:35	Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0x28d047…