(anonymous) 0x82bd44…28335e
hot 2W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$1.20K
Unrealized P&L
+$766
Hit rate
57.0%
Resolved
107
Trades
1,116
lifetime
Volume
$32.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$29
Open exposure
$7.98K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 10-28 13:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 25 days
Categories
Politics
59% 48% +$927
Other
38% 53% +$440
Tech
2% — —
Crypto
1% 0% -$164
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
44 active days in 12wk • peak 93 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes +1,211 $1,059 93¢ $1.1K +$68 10-21 13:51
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +1,064 $667 96¢ $1.0K +$359 10-21 21:31
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +879 $224 93¢ $815 +$591 10-23 00:51
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +587 $217 100¢ $587 +$370 10-22 19:59
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,009 $556 55¢ $555 -$1 10-12 14:19
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +594 $374 88¢ $520 +$146 10-23 13:28
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,009 $443 46¢ $459 +$16 10-12 14:19
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +434 $214 100¢ $432 +$218 10-13 17:53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Yes +594 $297 55¢ $324 +$27 10-21 07:56
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026 No +320 $57 93¢ $298 +$241 10-22 16:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? No +595 $298 46¢ $277 -$21 10-21 07:56
No one announced as next James Bond? No +312 $198 79¢ $246 +$49 10-21 10:35
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 28 Yes +196 $128 100¢ $196 +$68 10-21 20:59
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes +147 $132 98¢ $145 +$13 10-23 09:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? No +639 $234 18¢ $118 -$116 10-19 15:53
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +140 $99 80¢ $112 +$13 10-20 18:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? No +141 $106 76¢ $108 +$2 10-22 10:12
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? No +108 $86 84¢ $91 +$5 10-23 07:24
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? Yes +1,214 $136 6¢ $77 -$59 10-21 13:51
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No +85 $59 82¢ $70 +$11 10-13 19:02
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? No +599 $208 12¢ $70 -$138 10-23 13:28
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes +865 $705 7¢ $61 -$645 10-25 06:14
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +91 $52 62¢ $56 +$4 10-21 21:38
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +91 $39 45¢ $41 +$2 10-21 21:38
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +569 $102 6¢ $37 -$65 10-17 00:48
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +479 $157 6¢ $31 -$126 10-21 21:31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes +142 $40 19¢ $28 -$12 10-20 18:09
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? No +358 $290 7¢ $26 -$264 10-22 16:28
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +40 $18 63¢ $25 +$8 09-28 16:45
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes +40 $20 52¢ $21 +$0 09-28 16:45