Dull-Commitment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$204

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

83.9%

Resolved

Trades

3,769

lifetime

Volume

$33.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$88

1 position

First seen

2026-03-31

last 06-10 00:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

63% 75% +$135

Crypto

30% — —

Other

6% 50% +$69

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 1172 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No		-97	$-91	90¢	$-88	+$3	05-31 21:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	41	$19.3K	16,358	16,358	+0	open	—	04-27 18:26
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	13	$729	845	845	+0	open	—	05-01 02:00
es2 rso eib 2026 04 02 total 1pt5	2	$630	518	518	+0	open	—	04-02 19:44
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?	15	$425	298	298	+0	open	—	05-30 18:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$371	226	226	+0	open	—	05-30 13:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	139	$294	635	0	+635	open	—	06-02 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	66	$283	600	0	+600	open	—	06-02 01:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	60	$268	352	0	+352	open	—	06-02 00:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	102	$260	527	0	+527	open	—	06-02 00:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	82	$245	502	0	+502	open	—	06-02 00:06
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	7	$198	171	169	+3	open	—	04-27 18:17
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	2	$185	105	105	+0	open	—	05-31 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	61	$164	245	0	+245	open	—	06-02 02:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	16	$163	315	0	+315	open	—	05-31 21:25
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$163	129	127	+2	open	—	04-27 18:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	22	$155	418	291	+127	open	—	05-31 22:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	75	$134	290	0	+290	open	—	06-01 01:14
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	4	$122	158	72	+86	Yes	+$68	04-28 05:56
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$105	67	67	+0	open	—	04-28 00:24
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?	1	$100	535	0	+535	open	—	04-26 10:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$100	159	0	+159	No	+$59	04-26 14:29
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	4	$99	61	61	+0	open	—	04-11 18:15
btc updown 5m 1775091900	3	$91	90	84	+6	open	—	04-02 01:08
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	1	$91	0	97	-97	open	—	05-31 21:29
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	1	$90	100	0	+100	open	—	04-27 19:19
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?	1	$74	93	0	+93	open	—	04-25 13:14
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	3	$70	40	40	+0	open	—	04-28 03:43
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	4	$68	85	63	+21	open	—	05-01 07:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	5	$66	85	0	+85	open	—	05-31 21:24
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?	2	$64	34	34	+0	open	—	04-09 09:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 03:11:51	btc updown 5m 1781061000	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xc6575f…
06-10 03:11:51	btc updown 5m 1781061000	Down	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x429a84…
06-10 03:11:51	btc updown 5m 1781061000	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x173f5a…
06-10 02:36:37	btc updown 5m 1781058900	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xa634a8…
06-10 02:36:37	btc updown 5m 1781058900	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x40673d…
06-10 02:26:16	btc updown 5m 1781058300	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x050d99…
06-10 01:55:54	btc updown 5m 1781056500	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x65c5d1…
06-10 01:55:54	btc updown 5m 1781056500	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x5745ab…
06-10 01:50:58	btc updown 5m 1781056200	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xdb3dc8…
06-10 01:50:58	btc updown 5m 1781056200	Up	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x5c17cf…
06-10 01:50:57	btc updown 5m 1781056200	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xfde005…
06-10 01:50:57	btc updown 5m 1781056200	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xd5eacf…
06-10 01:50:57	btc updown 5m 1781056200	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xa8291a…
06-10 01:50:57	btc updown 5m 1781056200	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x6375ca…
06-10 01:50:57	btc updown 5m 1781056200	Up	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x225117…
06-10 01:50:57	btc updown 5m 1781056200	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x19fd5a…
06-10 01:32:40	btc updown 5m 1781055000	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe618b2…
06-10 01:32:40	btc updown 5m 1781055000	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xe0e21c…
06-10 01:32:40	btc updown 5m 1781055000	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xd0a469…
06-10 01:32:40	btc updown 5m 1781055000	Down	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0xc5339a…
06-10 01:32:40	btc updown 5m 1781055000	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x927180…
06-10 01:15:48	btc updown 5m 1781054100	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x6d5ab8…
06-10 01:15:46	btc updown 5m 1781054100	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x3a86aa…
06-10 01:15:46	btc updown 5m 1781054100	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x14ab58…
06-10 01:00:49	btc updown 5m 1781053200	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x6fd4e5…
06-10 01:00:49	btc updown 5m 1781053200	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x03ebf4…
06-10 00:55:43	btc updown 5m 1781052900	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb28aa0…
06-10 00:27:48	btc updown 5m 1781051100	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xd70197…
06-10 00:27:48	btc updown 5m 1781051100	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xce8527…
06-10 00:27:48	btc updown 5m 1781051100	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xbdd33c…
06-10 00:27:48	btc updown 5m 1781051100	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xbdcddd…
06-10 00:27:48	btc updown 5m 1781051100	Down	BUY	1	47¢	$1	0xad38ad…
06-10 00:27:48	btc updown 5m 1781051100	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x76ea43…
06-10 00:02:09	btc updown 5m 1781049600	Down	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0xe6204d…
06-10 00:02:07	btc updown 5m 1781049600	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$2	0x96d769…
06-10 00:00:52	btc updown 5m 1781049600	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x52b10d…
06-10 00:00:51	btc updown 5m 1781049600	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x080fce…
06-09 23:32:19	btc updown 5m 1781047800	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xfdd109…
06-09 23:32:19	btc updown 5m 1781047800	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xf34cc8…
06-09 23:32:19	btc updown 5m 1781047800	Down	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xdcc6ca…
06-09 23:32:19	btc updown 5m 1781047800	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x95b50c…
06-09 23:32:19	btc updown 5m 1781047800	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x8870bd…
06-09 23:32:19	btc updown 5m 1781047800	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x6f9355…
06-09 22:56:42	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xb009e5…
06-09 22:56:42	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x692ba5…
06-09 22:56:42	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	0	42¢	$0	0x6662e6…
06-09 22:56:42	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x5498e2…
06-09 22:56:42	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x22c979…
06-09 22:56:40	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa2aad2…
06-09 22:56:40	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	1	43¢	$0	0x8b5e11…
06-09 22:56:40	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x631b84…
06-09 22:56:39	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xf8a6db…
06-09 22:56:39	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xc3a65b…
06-09 22:56:39	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xc360bb…
06-09 22:56:39	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x75ea01…
06-09 22:56:39	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x700c22…
06-09 22:56:39	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2c366a…
06-09 22:56:37	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xcfa915…
06-09 22:56:37	btc updown 5m 1781045700	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x3aebcb…
06-09 20:00:09	btc updown 5m 1781035200	Up	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0xed00e9…
06-09 20:00:09	btc updown 5m 1781035200	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xe2cd61…
06-09 20:00:09	btc updown 5m 1781035200	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$4	0x97cea9…
06-09 20:00:09	btc updown 5m 1781035200	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x82288c…
06-09 20:00:09	btc updown 5m 1781035200	Up	BUY	1	46¢	$1	0x7a5884…
06-09 20:00:09	btc updown 5m 1781035200	Up	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x4b13a0…
06-09 20:00:09	btc updown 5m 1781035200	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x3342df…
06-09 20:00:09	btc updown 5m 1781035200	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x2d280d…
06-09 20:00:09	btc updown 5m 1781035200	Up	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x28110f…
06-02 02:18:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xef0a85…
06-02 02:18:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x53a810…
06-02 02:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9da0dd…
06-02 02:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xd9a948…
06-02 02:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x2e2991…
06-02 02:18:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x6e150c…
06-02 02:17:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x13d8d2…
06-02 02:17:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xa1fb00…
06-02 02:17:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x96beb3…
06-02 02:17:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x180178…
06-02 02:17:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x14243f…
06-02 02:17:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xc48e7b…
06-02 02:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0xd8fbe8…
06-02 02:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x9feb52…
06-02 02:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x6f53cb…
06-02 02:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$4	0x5f448b…
06-02 02:17:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x8f7c16…
06-02 02:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc575f2…
06-02 02:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	92¢	$2	0xb3d02b…
06-02 02:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x7a6490…
06-02 02:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x317288…
06-02 02:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x0c2a92…
06-02 02:17:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xe473f5…
06-02 02:16:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x53c95e…
06-02 02:16:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x593e3b…
06-02 02:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xf5b04c…
06-02 02:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x7e2ba6…
06-02 02:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x1c19d7…
06-02 02:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xa9fa1e…
06-02 02:16:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	87¢	$3	0xdb974f…
06-02 02:16:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xcc8d95…
06-02 02:16:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x6ac784…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x8852…c569	677	$97.7K	10,553	06-10 03:14
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	677	$53.7K	14,071	06-10 03:13
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	676	$351.6K	11,470	06-10 03:15
Alive-Supermarket 0x927f…d215	672	$88.2K	8,210	06-10 03:10
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	671	$209.6K	69,796	06-10 03:14
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	670	$206.0K	33,931	06-10 03:14
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	666	$1.91M	71,507	06-10 03:14
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	666	$234.7K	45,342	06-10 03:14