Uncomfortable-Spacing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$716

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

31.2%

Resolved

1,225

Trades

5,890

lifetime

Volume

$82.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$53

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 10-20 06:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

60% 54% -$633

Politics

19% 31% -$99

Crypto

13% 59% +$81

Sports

5% 29% -$28

Tech

2% 25% -$36

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 642 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+50	$43	90¢	$45	+$3	06-24 09:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+60	$14	12¢	$7	-$7	09-09 08:25
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	+20	$7	3¢	$1	-$7	09-17 17:15
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	-$3	78¢	$0	+$3	09-08 22:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	293	$19.4K	19,292	19,172	+120	Yes	-$166	09-07 18:56
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	235	$13.1K	13,158	13,098	+60	No	-$228	09-07 20:38
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	176	$6.1K	3,140	3,190	-50	No	+$1	05-30 23:55
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	153	$2.8K	2,750	2,750	+0	open	—	06-24 15:07
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	51	$2.5K	2,099	2,099	+0	Yes	+$6	06-26 16:12
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	82	$2.3K	1,898	1,898	+0	open	—	06-25 19:16
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	40	$2.2K	1,163	1,163	+0	No	+$5	05-29 05:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	50	$2.1K	2,061	2,056	+5	Yes	-$18	09-10 10:56
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	102	$1.7K	1,714	1,714	+0	open	—	06-29 10:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	52	$991	944	944	+0	No	-$13	05-07 19:14
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	135	$941	1,093	837	+256	Yes	-$84	05-29 06:46
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	101	$937	1,035	1,035	+0	Yes	-$12	07-26 02:37
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	25	$701	441	391	+50	open	—	06-24 09:51
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	24	$646	415	415	+0	No	+$5	05-31 15:15
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	21	$595	553	553	+0	No	+$10	06-29 21:12
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	14	$568	348	348	+0	No	+$10	09-11 02:57
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	21	$561	299	299	+0	No	+$1	05-29 05:34
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves?	32	$538	649	649	+0	Yes	-$1	05-08 08:02
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$532	656	656	+0	No	-$13	06-29 21:13
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	15	$530	412	412	+0	Yes	-$6	06-29 23:16
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants	116	$517	564	527	+37	San Diego Padres	-$25	05-06 21:11
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Dellien vs Valentin Royer	130	$504	480	480	+0	Valentin Royer	-$11	05-24 19:27
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	16	$497	509	509	+0	open	—	06-01 14:33
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	15	$480	577	474	+102	Yes	-$49	09-09 21:43
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	22	$475	440	440	+0	Yes	-$36	07-01 13:35
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	7	$458	386	386	+0	Yes	-$4	06-27 18:13
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	13	$369	373	373	+0	open	—	09-13 09:40
Panathinaikos vs. Valencia	48	$368	393	393	+0	Valencia	-$9	05-06 19:40
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Belinda Bencic vs Bianca Andreescu	50	$363	580	580	+0	Belinda Bencic	-$7	05-07 16:43
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?	7	$340	335	335	+0	No	-$13	05-17 12:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 06:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x11e927…
10-20 06:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x52b7c9…
10-20 06:20:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xdcceb8…
10-20 06:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x3f5078…
10-20 06:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x3f4bc1…
10-20 06:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa52177…
10-20 06:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x7033f9…
10-20 06:01:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xfffbb1…
10-20 06:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x3ffa27…
10-20 06:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x759de6…
10-20 05:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa49f19…
10-20 05:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3c869a…
10-20 05:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x72d596…
10-20 05:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xc76519…
10-20 05:42:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3f1b8e…
10-20 05:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x741f99…
10-20 05:41:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xa035a5…
10-20 05:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9f959c…
10-20 05:31:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xb66085…
10-20 05:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x77e0fe…
10-20 05:16:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xd68627…
10-20 05:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf2278a…
10-20 05:12:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x8127f5…
10-20 05:03:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x56301e…
10-20 05:02:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x9da504…
10-20 05:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x258b15…
10-20 04:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x0bff15…
10-20 04:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x42e343…
10-20 04:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x5b262f…
10-20 04:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x9710c0…
10-20 04:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x590fd5…
10-20 04:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x3a76e4…
10-20 04:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x97dadd…
10-20 04:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x3e4a46…
10-20 04:37:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xf0ee61…
10-20 04:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd6c95f…
10-20 04:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb0228b…
10-20 04:20:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x5024ce…
10-20 04:06:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xd79414…
10-20 04:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x7d7a76…
10-20 03:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x1207da…
10-20 03:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x964440…
10-20 03:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x28b5c4…
10-20 03:56:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xd2ae6f…
10-20 03:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xcc0f61…
10-20 03:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xb4cc47…
10-20 03:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xc7088e…
10-20 03:38:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x8cf324…
10-20 03:37:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xaf5683…
10-20 03:36:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x25953c…
10-20 03:32:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa74604…
10-20 03:22:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7cdf78…
10-20 03:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xd795f9…
10-20 03:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5eda24…
10-20 03:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x4dd1cb…
10-20 03:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xc1bcb5…
10-20 03:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xf7241d…
10-20 02:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xee5e47…
10-20 02:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xec2106…
10-20 02:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xc73fd6…
10-20 02:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x674f46…
10-20 02:40:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x0a9657…
10-20 02:36:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x6e0136…
10-20 02:26:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x6ec64a…
10-20 02:25:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x4ce1fb…
10-20 02:22:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xd212ce…
10-20 02:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xa7d0aa…
10-20 02:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xcb981e…
10-20 02:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xdc8ac0…
10-20 02:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2c97d7…
10-20 02:13:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x629762…
10-20 02:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc3d0e2…
10-20 02:06:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xdf197f…
10-20 02:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x04d7d4…
10-20 02:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xf29f22…
10-20 01:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x879e4c…
10-20 01:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x3494de…
10-20 01:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x12cefc…
10-20 01:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x1d2acd…
10-20 01:41:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xa8b971…
10-20 01:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xad1665…
10-20 01:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x32a566…
10-20 01:37:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x48f3f1…
10-20 01:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xddaeac…
10-20 01:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5ea2a6…
10-20 01:32:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xf3e8aa…
10-20 01:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x7f356f…
10-20 01:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x3a0cee…
10-20 01:27:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xf879c5…
10-20 01:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5d8bbf…
10-20 01:21:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x2bfb6b…
10-20 01:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x41d85e…
10-20 01:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x31bbfa…
10-20 01:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xefba6d…
10-20 01:11:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xdcea2c…
10-20 01:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x30a82b…
10-20 01:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf5268f…
10-20 01:06:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x549b3c…
10-20 01:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x12f9dc…
10-20 01:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x612fe5…