Untimely-Sovereignty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.0%

Resolved

107

Trades

120

lifetime

Volume

$1.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-23 13:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

51% 96% +$2

Politics

29% 100% +$4

Crypto

16% 95% -$1

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	2	$101	51	51	+0	No	+$0	08-13 01:12
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	2	$99	54	54	+0	No	+$2	10-23 09:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$93	49	49	+0	No	-$1	08-25 12:58
LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$77	39	39	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 01:11
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$56	56	0	+56	Yes	+$0	10-05 01:15
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	09-16 02:32
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$54	54	0	+54	No	+$0	08-05 07:01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	1	$54	55	0	+55	No	+$1	09-14 10:37
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$51	51	0	+51	Yes	+$0	08-17 12:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$0	08-15 12:25
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	08-10 14:09
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$1	08-13 12:39
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	08-27 23:45
will xi jinping visit us by september 23	1	$44	44	0	+44	Yes	+$0	09-23 11:13
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	08-27 15:07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	09-04 08:03
Will Solana reach $160 in September?	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	09-28 06:25
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	09-10 01:58
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	1	$27	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	06-26 18:56
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	07-30 20:20
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	05-31 14:16
will xrp dip to 0pt8 in march 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	03-31 02:08
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	2	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	10-23 13:41
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-29 14:59
amzn above 180 on february 27 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	Yes	+$0	02-25 08:24
will spy reach 770 in june 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	06-28 13:43
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	1	$7	7	0	+7	Yes	+$0	04-29 16:20
will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	06-28 17:49
Will Solana reach $170 in September?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	09-27 08:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	10-01 02:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 13:41:32	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x05a645…
10-23 09:33:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	54	93¢	$50	0xc0f7ce…
10-21 22:42:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	54	90¢	$49	0x6f9ea9…
10-17 13:41:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0x5bb8f9…
10-09 11:26:43	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x07cf14…
10-08 17:14:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x3c99e4…
10-05 01:15:16	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x604d69…
10-01 02:56:35	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x03ad97…
09-28 06:25:08	Will Solana reach $160 in September?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xf72eea…
09-27 08:22:42	Will Solana reach $170 in September?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf883cb…
09-23 11:13:55	will xi jinping visit us by september 23	Yes	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xb9485b…
09-22 13:29:13	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xde49af…
09-19 08:17:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in September?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1d9554…
09-16 02:32:00	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x2d2aec…
09-14 10:37:37	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	No	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x58e33d…
09-10 01:58:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x50a9c1…
09-10 01:11:48	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	39	98¢	$39	0xa999d2…
09-09 18:44:51	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	39	98¢	$39	0x610ffc…
09-04 08:03:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0x903ff8…
09-03 11:03:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0xa82d61…
08-27 23:45:33	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x74afb5…
08-27 15:07:31	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x6ec761…
08-26 21:01:39	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x07c09b…
08-26 11:41:06	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x081e59…
08-25 12:58:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	49	93¢	$46	0x6c15f3…
08-25 07:13:06	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x083ab3…
08-23 20:39:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	49	96¢	$47	0xe6e862…
08-23 14:22:04	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x5db323…
08-23 09:22:30	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf0999e…
08-17 12:22:57	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$51	0x8d5744…
08-15 12:25:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x3464b1…
08-13 12:39:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	50	98¢	$50	0x76db62…
08-13 08:19:15	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3e6f8d…
08-13 01:12:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x57cb4d…
08-12 02:21:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x5a8a69…
08-10 14:09:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x1d4ed8…
08-09 04:19:34	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5e00a5…
08-08 04:36:12	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc6506c…
08-06 01:38:56	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbf59dd…
08-05 07:01:21	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x06182f…
07-30 20:20:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x39cda7…
07-29 09:05:32	will ethereum reach 2300 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x78af4a…
07-27 05:33:49	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x202748…
07-27 03:55:43	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfede17…
07-25 13:30:00	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfb5948…
07-24 05:08:43	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xade761…
07-23 18:26:40	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x642e70…
07-22 18:37:19	will bitcoin dip to 37pt5k in july 2026 944	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x50f902…
07-21 19:16:48	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf42818…
07-17 15:56:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x339936…
07-05 13:25:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x80c234…
06-29 14:59:32	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfc34d7…
06-29 03:32:04	will ng dip to 2 60 in june 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe6dde5…
06-28 17:49:11	will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xdbf976…
06-28 13:43:56	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xe4b571…
06-28 06:08:11	will coin reach 195 in june 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xcb27b1…
06-27 12:57:47	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x952960…
06-26 18:56:22	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x817ed3…
05-31 14:16:42	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x4bc213…
05-11 09:47:30	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0e170e…
05-09 16:20:21	Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x7ac1b8…
05-09 10:49:41	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbac44b…
05-09 05:36:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1b2a6d…
05-09 04:52:29	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0b6fbd…
05-09 03:26:03	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xba8704…
05-08 07:14:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5b12e8…
05-08 02:38:41	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb1c1e9…
05-06 05:32:12	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc8a094…
04-29 16:20:24	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xac593f…
04-23 07:07:52	Will BNB dip to $300 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0779dc…
04-21 04:44:34	Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5d79ba…
04-20 18:53:36	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $200 end of April?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb58d91…
04-19 15:54:46	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf288ac…
04-19 12:45:18	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0cfc42…
04-18 17:15:58	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x90dd82…
04-18 01:23:14	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x743da9…
04-17 14:25:10	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x324513…
04-15 03:52:08	Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x5ad31e…
04-14 07:14:25	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1498a3…
04-13 14:52:23	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1e6bae…
03-31 02:08:55	will xrp dip to 0pt8 in march 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x9f7c20…
03-30 18:44:43	amzn above 250 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7554a4…
03-26 09:12:03	nvda above 220 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc596b7…
03-26 07:06:45	tsla above 470 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x04f296…
03-24 01:04:21	aapl above 310 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9cab3f…
03-20 13:53:15	will tesla be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcb5804…
03-19 15:14:07	tsla above 470 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x12c3d2…
03-17 20:27:53	will xrp dip to 0pt6 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x617583…
03-14 00:18:07	will alibaba have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9390ec…
03-13 04:08:17	will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaea85a…
03-12 05:36:49	bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8507a3…
03-11 00:49:03	nflx above 200 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x74298d…
03-07 21:14:53	will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb826eb…
03-05 23:26:47	will tesla be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x232334…
03-04 21:15:13	nflx above 20 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x91806e…
03-03 17:02:31	will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 889	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x86b14e…
02-25 20:01:52	meta above 820 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xa436f8…
02-25 08:24:10	amzn above 180 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x9e2016…
02-23 13:24:32	aapl above 230 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xcf3a88…
02-22 23:09:56	msft above 465 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x9fb7a5…