Physical-Espadrille — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.38K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

43.8%

Resolved

276

Trades

1,856

lifetime

Volume

$113.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

$20

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-05

last 10-25 20:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 120 days

Categories

Other

49% 32% -$1,979

Politics

33% 38% -$821

Sports

15% 48% -$370

Tech

2% 8% -$207

Crypto

1% 50% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No		+20	$9	63¢	$13	+$3	09-27 20:43
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes		+20	$12	37¢	$7	-$4	09-27 22:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	23	$7.1K	5,000	5,400	-400	No	-$96	05-10 22:29
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	5	$3.5K	2,000	1,992	+8	Yes	+$23	04-08 20:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	17	$3.2K	3,300	3,300	+0	No	+$18	05-26 00:19
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	7	$2.3K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$222	05-06 15:10
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	2	$2.2K	1,300	1,300	+0	Yes	+$0	04-27 20:02
epl bur mac 2026 04 22 mac	6	$2.1K	1,110	1,110	+0	Yes	+$22	04-22 21:15
Pistons vs. Magic	6	$2.0K	2,041	2,041	+0	Magic	+$36	04-25 19:42
Pistons vs. Magic	8	$2.0K	2,100	2,000	+100	Pistons	+$103	05-02 00:23
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-24?	6	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$15	04-25 00:01
nba tor cle 2026 04 20	3	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	Cavaliers	-$46	04-21 00:52
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	22	$1.9K	2,003	2,003	+0	Yes	-$233	05-21 08:21
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026?	16	$1.8K	773	1,239	-466	Yes	-$50	05-17 11:34
mls col mia 2026 04 18 mia	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$200	04-18 22:46
Magic vs. Pistons	4	$1.8K	2,000	1,500	+500	Pistons	-$166	04-30 01:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	11	$1.7K	1,395	1,395	+0	No	+$2	05-07 20:56
nba hou lal 2026 04 18	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	Lakers	+$30	04-19 02:49
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	7	$1.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$97	05-14 02:27
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	11	$1.6K	2,000	1,500	+500	Timberwolves	+$90	05-11 01:30
arg cat tig 2026 04 12 draw	25	$1.5K	1,582	1,575	+8	Yes	+$66	04-12 23:11
trump announces tariff for iran military cooperation by april 17	20	$1.5K	6,500	6,500	+0	No	-$150	04-10 08:31
nba orl det 2026 04 22	3	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	Pistons	-$90	04-23 00:36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	17	$1.4K	1,900	1,900	+0	Yes	-$206	06-14 20:44
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	6	$1.3K	1,100	1,100	+0	Raptors	-$81	04-26 19:05
epl not ast 2026 04 12 not	3	$1.3K	1,000	990	+10	No	-$15	04-11 15:51
bun moe mai 2026 04 19 moe	4	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$2	04-19 18:36
arg cac pla 2026 04 20 cac	8	$1.3K	1,074	1,073	+1	Yes	+$6	04-20 23:01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	21	$1.2K	1,350	1,350	+0	Yes	+$22	06-14 12:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	7	$1.2K	900	900	+0	Yes	-$1	06-15 15:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	4	$1.2K	850	850	+0	No	-$28	04-19 03:39
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	4	$1.2K	2,030	2,030	+0	No	-$16	04-06 22:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 20:40:27	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	No	SELL	90	93¢	$84	0x7a1675…
10-25 20:40:17	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	SELL	90	92¢	$83	0xb43214…
10-25 19:56:48	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of São Paulo?	No	SELL	31	85¢	$27	0x2b3e74…
10-25 18:52:12	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of São Paulo?	No	BUY	31	12¢	$4	0xe582fd…
10-25 18:51:14	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of São Paulo?	No	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x1d2654…
10-25 18:23:26	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of São Paulo?	No	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x664c74…
10-25 18:03:20	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	No	BUY	90	90¢	$81	0x2156ea…
10-25 18:03:20	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	Yes	BUY	90	90¢	$81	0x1f9d7c…
10-25 17:51:20	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of São Paulo?	No	BUY	24	12¢	$3	0xc27977…
10-25 17:47:45	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of São Paulo?	No	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x258cc0…
10-25 14:15:41	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of São Paulo?	No	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0x732f72…
10-24 14:13:02	Will Pep Guardiola attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0xafba5e…
10-24 14:12:45	Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x3a9948…
10-23 23:48:59	Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0xdaddec…
10-23 23:16:23	Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x78e57c…
10-23 22:45:14	Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x83c1b7…
10-23 22:45:14	Will Luis Enrique attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x535c68…
10-23 20:24:12	Will Pep Guardiola attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x20bf79…
10-17 11:56:15	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x39f2b9…
10-15 23:06:15	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x233ccb…
10-15 23:06:00	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Yes	SELL	60	27¢	$16	0x0bce1d…
10-15 22:42:46	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xac77d8…
10-15 22:23:36	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	8	80¢	$6	0xde2315…
10-15 22:17:14	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x50457e…
10-15 22:02:24	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0x730655…
10-15 22:01:51	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xcafb41…
10-15 21:22:09	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xf1683a…
10-15 21:05:14	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x79a5a8…
10-15 21:05:02	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	19¢	$11	0x89abe6…
10-15 21:04:48	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xf64471…
10-15 00:26:32	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x3fdfec…
10-14 23:03:51	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x928a30…
10-14 22:58:12	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xc8a27e…
10-10 19:36:04	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	150	14¢	$21	0x88e26e…
10-10 19:34:00	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xf57e6e…
10-10 19:17:55	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xdc0427…
10-10 18:44:30	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xc0b9ca…
10-10 18:44:30	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xc0b9ca…
10-10 15:52:15	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xe8d21e…
10-06 00:59:43	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 11?	No	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x1eea11…
10-06 00:15:22	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 11?	No	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x0ec84b…
10-05 22:23:23	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 11?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x141f6b…
10-04 20:38:17	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x14915f…
10-04 20:25:49	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x180fa4…
10-04 11:32:02	Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	14	40¢	$6	0x16bfb5…
10-04 11:32:02	Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x04093f…
10-04 11:32:01	Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x4945a9…
10-03 18:38:53	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x661ff9…
10-03 17:53:03	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x0fbda4…
10-03 00:38:00	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x39a063…
10-03 00:30:14	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xb9637a…
10-03 00:08:38	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 35 and 40 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x470309…
10-03 00:08:32	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 35 and 40 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x1f6943…
10-03 00:06:30	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	14	4¢	$1	0x138920…
10-02 23:59:48	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 35 and 40 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x7c4288…
10-02 23:59:48	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x122e51…
10-02 23:59:05	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 35 and 40 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x5b0236…
10-02 23:59:03	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x6fa9cf…
10-02 23:15:29	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x756046…
10-02 23:15:27	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 35 and 40 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x8d7af1…
10-02 22:08:50	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x9d9cf1…
10-01 23:27:21	over 35m committed to the jumper public sale	No	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x473523…
10-01 20:18:05	over 35m committed to the jumper public sale	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xdacc6d…
10-01 20:09:11	over 35m committed to the jumper public sale	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x43bdf3…
10-01 20:09:09	over 35m committed to the jumper public sale	No	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0x07c9e4…
10-01 20:09:08	Over $35M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0x97dbb2…
09-29 21:46:54	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x4cee8a…
09-29 21:34:32	next astra model 6pt1 released by october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xf50b4f…
09-27 22:08:09	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xcca1d9…
09-27 20:43:56	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xb7bf6b…
09-27 20:10:42	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xd7abd9…
09-27 20:10:42	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xb860fe…
09-26 15:37:26	Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x9017aa…
09-26 15:36:47	Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x7257b7…
09-26 15:36:47	Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x7257b7…
09-26 15:13:26	Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0x6a901f…
09-26 15:13:26	Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$1	0x61d0ed…
09-26 15:11:38	Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xac85e8…
09-19 01:41:27	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0x529668…
09-19 01:41:16	trump x greenland deal signed by september 25	Yes	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0xa3fa8a…
09-19 00:56:36	trump x greenland deal signed by september 25	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x373caa…
09-19 00:24:24	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x70827b…
09-07 08:40:15	Will Ben Dudman win the next Meander Valley mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0x388e4c…
09-04 17:50:57	Will Ben Dudman win the next Meander Valley mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x9feaf5…
09-04 16:52:09	will openais astra model debut as 1 text arena 20260901081919669	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x83b20a…
09-04 16:17:21	will openais astra model debut as 1 text arena 20260901081919669	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xf11a14…
09-04 14:14:16	will openais astra model debut as 1 text arena 20260901081919669	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x5b1a98…
09-04 14:14:03	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	200	78¢	$157	0x3a5496…
09-04 14:11:39	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x36063d…
09-04 14:10:48	will openais astra model debut as 1 text arena 20260901081919669	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xa3bf2a…
09-01 20:07:15	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	No	SELL	60	36¢	$22	0xf7b5ac…
09-01 20:07:04	will the next mythos class model debut with a humanitys last exam score of 60 or higher	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x069fb2…
09-01 20:06:57	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	61¢	$24	0x1b1182…
09-01 18:56:15	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xa931b6…
09-01 18:54:33	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe20f30…
09-01 18:14:03	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x312545…
09-01 18:14:03	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x0c73db…
09-01 18:14:01	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x91a52d…
09-01 18:09:45	will the next mythos class model debut with a humanitys last exam score of 60 or higher	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x410b1c…
09-01 17:56:36	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xb201a6…