Powerless-Kilt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$326

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.3%

Resolved

296

Trades

1,988

lifetime

Volume

$86.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$44

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 18:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Other

62% 52% +$308

Tech

25% 72% +$334

Politics

13% 79% -$380

Crypto

1% 69% +$64

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	27	$3.1K	2,388	1,463	+925	Yes	+$75	03-05 18:13
elon musk 48h tweets january 5 january 7 120 129	10	$2.9K	1,528	1,528	+0	No	+$88	01-07 14:01
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	14	$2.4K	1,948	1,058	+890	Yes	+$217	04-24 03:22
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on the frontiermath benchmark	47	$2.3K	2,921	677	+2,244	No	+$1,278	01-31 14:59
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 65 89	57	$2.2K	1,404	1,306	+98	Yes	+$77	02-02 16:00
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	49	$1.9K	1,585	863	+722	No	+$510	02-28 16:49
will anthropic have the 2 ai model at the end of february 2026	33	$1.8K	1,578	854	+724	Yes	+$78	02-28 17:00
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	11	$1.6K	1,264	1,264	+0	Yes	+$32	02-07 19:50
elon musk 48h tweets january 5 january 7 110 119	13	$1.6K	834	834	+0	No	+$29	01-07 13:36
elon musk 48h tweets january 5 january 7 130 139	17	$1.5K	1,302	1,302	+0	No	-$663	01-07 15:22
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 480 499	48	$1.2K	968	968	+0	No	+$147	01-02 15:46
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 500 519	14	$1.1K	1,221	1,221	+0	Yes	+$1,063	01-02 16:49
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 90 114	40	$1.1K	900	550	+350	Yes	+$69	02-04 16:16
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on humanitys last exam by january 31 459	10	$1.1K	968	210	+759	No	+$41	02-01 04:33
will google have the second best ai model at the end of january 2026	5	$1.1K	653	653	+0	Yes	+$14	01-28 20:39
will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of february 2026	19	$1.1K	655	617	+38	Yes	+$121	02-26 08:31
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	2	$1.0K	504	504	+0	No	+$4	02-05 04:12
will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	23	$984	1,184	406	+778	Yes	+$303	03-16 17:47
elon musk 48h tweets january 5 january 7 140plus	33	$973	1,179	1,001	+178	Yes	-$161	01-07 16:44
will google have the 3 ai model at the end of january 2026	21	$942	878	180	+698	Yes	+$113	01-31 15:03
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	10	$873	445	445	+0	Yes	-$3	02-06 17:45
elon musk 48h tweets january 5 january 7 100 109	3	$860	439	439	+0	No	+$17	01-07 12:57
will google have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	1	$855	877	0	+877	Yes	+$21	03-26 20:20
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	8	$831	1,016	0	+1,016	Yes	+$185	04-29 05:23
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	10	$816	466	466	+0	No	+$88	04-15 07:19
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	7	$753	634	634	+0	Yes	+$27	04-23 16:47
will claude 5 not be released by february 28 2026	10	$722	381	381	+0	Yes	+$34	02-23 11:03
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	12	$720	591	211	+380	No	-$341	06-16 16:46
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 340 359	24	$707	1,257	1,257	+0	No	+$3	02-10 14:45
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 460 479	13	$691	1,463	39	+1,424	No	-$652	01-02 16:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 18:09:39	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xd370db…
10-27 10:53:21	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	85¢	$31	0xdce4db…
10-27 10:53:02	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	84¢	$31	0x47e6c9…
10-27 10:50:23	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	9¢	$7	0xf5f666…
10-27 09:03:53	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	Yes	SELL	128	0¢	$0	0xa508ef…
10-27 02:04:14	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xce351e…
10-26 18:28:09	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xcb0473…
10-26 13:07:41	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xd22f0d…
10-26 13:06:57	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	75¢	$21	0x55a8da…
10-26 12:59:36	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc196f6…
10-26 12:59:30	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	53¢	$11	0x0f52fd…
10-25 16:51:20	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0xff2e89…
10-25 16:42:33	Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	87	94¢	$82	0xb87b46…
10-25 16:31:57	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	170	73¢	$124	0xec7f0d…
10-25 16:25:06	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	51	90¢	$46	0xfed06b…
10-25 16:24:45	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x6af37e…
10-25 16:22:20	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 20% or higher?	Yes	BUY	81	90¢	$73	0xcc8625…
10-25 15:58:11	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	62	91¢	$56	0x33c9b2…
10-25 15:38:00	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x09796a…
10-25 14:17:24	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xc791d8…
10-25 14:16:33	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x123b94…
10-25 06:54:35	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	Yes	BUY	128	30¢	$38	0x21a640…
10-25 02:10:30	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x0a734c…
10-24 20:00:27	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x0719ac…
10-24 19:32:50	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	44¢	$27	0xfeba2a…
10-24 19:32:21	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	32¢	$21	0xdf9d39…
10-24 19:11:48	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	58¢	$32	0x993681…
10-24 19:08:56	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	57¢	$83	0x4cdf6e…
10-24 19:08:41	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0xd2cbee…
10-24 19:08:02	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	23¢	$37	0xb9d486…
06-29 10:18:32	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	Yes	SELL	313	85¢	$266	0xb457c0…
06-16 16:46:31	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x91f949…
06-16 13:06:49	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x8b1e20…
06-16 13:06:46	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	184	90¢	$165	0x5e148f…
06-12 17:45:01	Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	BUY	36	65¢	$23	0xe550bf…
06-12 17:42:52	Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	BUY	42	65¢	$27	0xa88511…
06-09 18:16:34	Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0x28e566…
06-09 18:12:21	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	142	7¢	$10	0xab7c75…
06-07 02:11:07	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0x12ddaf…
06-06 17:11:13	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	31	66¢	$21	0x18f683…
06-06 17:08:52	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	57	66¢	$38	0x145ce9…
06-06 17:08:24	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x5bbced…
06-03 10:05:06	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x532d20…
06-03 09:32:53	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	35¢	$11	0x6ea3df…
06-03 09:29:52	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	35¢	$22	0x5648ba…
06-03 08:37:22	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x840266…
06-03 08:30:52	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	273	96¢	$262	0xb23871…
06-03 07:41:40	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x7ea830…
06-02 00:34:35	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	Yes	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x76d73c…
05-31 17:37:40	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	83¢	$80	0xa5269f…
05-31 15:16:09	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0xee2254…
05-29 10:21:42	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	86¢	$13	0xcd0123…
05-28 18:10:15	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0xbe3a08…
05-28 18:04:11	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x708afb…
05-28 18:03:20	Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0xc399f3…
05-28 17:49:17	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0x84eaeb…
05-28 05:05:52	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	212	5¢	$10	0x108a4c…
05-27 22:24:18	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0x2a3069…
05-27 21:31:57	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x724e1a…
05-27 15:28:44	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0xb3fd61…
05-27 15:28:44	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x47b820…
05-27 14:32:53	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0xd24b80…
05-27 14:19:00	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xfe6344…
05-27 13:21:52	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x236594…
05-27 11:33:29	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	3¢	$2	0x823ddf…
05-27 11:32:56	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	33¢	$10	0xdeabfa…
05-27 11:32:36	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	33¢	$11	0xf4b472…
05-26 15:57:14	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	10¢	$2	0xc97953…
05-26 15:32:28	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xc200d0…
05-25 03:17:57	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x42edeb…
05-24 12:20:52	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	5¢	$1	0x84f2ba…
05-24 10:39:21	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x4d20f7…
05-24 10:20:34	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x439a6e…
05-24 10:12:04	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0xb75cde…
05-24 10:10:12	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	217	80¢	$173	0x13354b…
05-24 10:07:51	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	386	78¢	$301	0x218ad8…
05-24 09:40:10	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x11697b…
05-24 04:59:09	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	5¢	$2	0x601e4b…
05-24 04:57:46	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0xf4301b…
05-24 04:57:25	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x24610f…
05-24 04:49:21	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	5¢	$2	0x448c7d…
05-24 04:19:50	Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	BUY	22	65¢	$15	0x86e436…
05-23 09:42:36	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xbc0688…
05-23 03:57:58	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	193	98¢	$189	0x13d311…
05-23 02:16:23	Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0x360388…
05-22 17:58:00	Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x12c3ab…
05-21 17:46:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	134	93¢	$125	0x603e50…
05-21 17:45:25	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x955d6b…
05-21 17:08:51	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x9641bf…
05-21 11:15:08	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x84af9d…
05-21 02:44:28	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0xbf4d7e…
05-21 01:29:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	300	95¢	$285	0x3c3bd9…
05-21 01:22:25	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	151	97¢	$146	0x109b83…
05-20 05:38:17	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	124	96¢	$119	0x0dd5ae…
05-20 01:17:21	Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xd2a703…
05-19 19:44:32	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x2743f2…
05-19 18:09:44	Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0x9a7010…
05-19 18:05:41	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x5da80e…
05-19 18:05:34	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	123	2¢	$2	0x247977…
05-19 18:05:27	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x4f0bda…