Improbable-Muffin-Bronchitis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

-$4.98K

Hit rate

35.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,197

lifetime

Volume

$110.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$92

Open exposure

$2.53K

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-28

last 06-21 11:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

64% — —

Politics

35% 50% $-44

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 253 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+14,680	$5,001	16¢	$2.3K	$-2,726	06-21 10:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+5,541	$2,499	4¢	$249	$-2,250	06-21 10:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	40¢	$1	$-0	05-28 04:40
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+3	$1	20¢	$1	$-0	05-28 04:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	95	$22.6K	27,426	27,423	+3	open	—	05-06 19:33
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	325	$22.2K	49,122	5,008	+44,113	open	—	05-06 19:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	116	$12.9K	28,178	28,178	+0	open	—	04-18 19:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	55	$11.6K	19,143	19,141	+3	open	—	05-06 19:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	65	$7.1K	19,029	8,810	+10,220	open	—	04-24 13:10
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	112	$6.1K	12,748	12,748	+0	open	—	04-21 11:11
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	38	$5.0K	14,693	12	+14,680	open	—	06-21 10:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	52	$4.8K	26,767	26,754	+13	Yes	$-270	05-06 19:35
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	57	$3.0K	14,213	18	+14,194	open	—	06-21 11:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	26	$2.5K	5,550	8	+5,541	open	—	06-21 10:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	37	$2.4K	4,144	4,140	+4	Yes	+$189	05-06 19:37
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	21	$1.5K	10,677	10	+10,667	open	—	06-21 11:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	64	$1.5K	27,510	5,991	+21,519	open	—	04-22 15:39
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.2K	1	1,352	-1,351	open	—	05-31 05:48
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	11	$1.1K	768	767	+1	open	—	05-06 19:31
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	7	$1.1K	1,222	1,220	+2	open	—	05-06 10:27
Thunder vs. Spurs	7	$1.0K	2,441	2	+2,440	open	—	05-28 21:24
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$416	1,138	1,138	+0	open	—	04-01 19:07
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	12	$403	12,101	50	+12,051	open	—	04-22 15:49
wti up or down on april 20 2026	18	$338	3,842	2,020	+1,822	open	—	04-20 13:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$334	0	1,237	-1,237	open	—	05-30 20:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	13	$243	2,756	2,756	+0	Yes	+$37	04-26 09:57
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$162	831	831	+0	open	—	04-05 23:49
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$161	737	737	+0	open	—	04-05 23:48
anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	6	$153	0	476	-476	open	—	06-20 18:08
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$118	802	802	+0	open	—	04-05 23:49
Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$113	622	622	+0	open	—	04-05 23:47
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$112	1,212	0	+1,212	open	—	04-07 20:31
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$111	810	810	+0	open	—	04-05 23:49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$102	1,116	9	+1,107	open	—	04-26 08:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 11:05:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xd0e399…
06-21 11:03:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x389f43…
06-21 11:02:44	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x04f6f9…
06-21 11:02:31	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x7dac32…
06-21 11:02:20	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x25e450…
06-21 11:02:08	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x420703…
06-21 11:01:47	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x2ffd7b…
06-21 11:01:35	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x09f613…
06-21 11:01:04	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x9438fe…
06-21 11:00:26	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x81b491…
06-21 11:00:16	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x2bafa2…
06-21 10:59:59	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x99fa53…
06-21 10:59:23	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xc92f65…
06-21 10:59:13	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xf47915…
06-21 10:58:28	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x6f87de…
06-21 10:57:37	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x6f3ff8…
06-21 10:55:29	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xba8323…
06-21 10:55:01	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0xebbec6…
06-21 10:49:55	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xde946f…
06-21 10:49:38	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xe78729…
06-21 10:47:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	23¢	$0	0x57f65f…
06-21 10:47:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	23¢	$0	0x378d6a…
06-21 10:46:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x02da64…
06-21 10:45:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x39c95a…
06-21 10:45:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0xf33d7f…
06-20 18:08:58	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x0901b6…
06-19 12:18:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0x9cb89f…
06-19 12:17:43	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0x5f8607…
06-19 12:17:17	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x77048b…
06-19 12:15:59	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,174	23¢	$500	0xa0c6fe…
06-18 04:47:32	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xf0b08f…
06-18 04:47:13	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x8d9158…
06-18 04:47:05	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xd8b502…
06-18 04:46:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x60d043…
06-18 04:46:23	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x1deaf4…
06-18 04:25:05	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x84add7…
06-18 04:21:10	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,795	28¢	$500	0x491438…
06-17 12:39:56	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0xdd376c…
06-17 12:39:02	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0xbe87a4…
06-17 12:38:16	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8a6c97…
06-17 12:37:17	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0xbdc41b…
06-17 12:07:53	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x0d45d3…
06-17 12:06:59	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2,500	8¢	$200	0x8fb3c1…
06-17 11:54:44	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x19f25a…
06-17 11:54:11	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x2aac9d…
06-17 11:53:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x335ea7…
06-17 11:52:23	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0x3f0432…
06-17 11:42:38	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x027a86…
06-17 11:35:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,667	30¢	$500	0xd2936b…
06-17 11:30:29	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,395	29¢	$1,000	0xee0c4a…
06-13 08:59:00	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x073ebc…
06-13 08:58:37	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xcc0971…
06-13 08:58:10	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xe828d0…
06-13 08:57:21	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2,178	14¢	$300	0x6596c2…
06-13 08:54:46	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	SELL	8	31¢	$2	0xe7e190…
06-13 08:54:28	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x06ebb4…
06-13 08:53:04	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x7ae7e4…
06-13 08:52:48	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xc60ecb…
06-13 08:51:24	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	SELL	429	32¢	$139	0x7f3d8d…
06-03 16:24:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0xd224ff…
06-03 16:24:03	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0x29cb05…
06-03 16:23:52	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0x7ddb3d…
06-03 16:23:25	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0x8b4b0b…
06-03 16:22:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,941	17¢	$500	0xb614d5…
06-03 16:21:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xc5290f…
06-03 16:21:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x00a4c2…
06-03 16:20:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x43132e…
06-03 16:20:27	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x7684d8…
06-03 16:19:49	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,316	38¢	$500	0xfee1be…
06-01 23:25:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x24edfe…
06-01 23:12:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x0963a8…
06-01 23:12:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x0dbe9e…
06-01 23:12:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xcb3853…
06-01 23:11:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1	39¢	$0	0xfb7634…
06-01 23:06:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,250	40¢	$500	0xad1596…
06-01 22:58:59	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0xf0a7bf…
06-01 22:58:45	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x8eb273…
06-01 22:58:27	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x93f91e…
06-01 22:58:19	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0x0c5734…
06-01 22:57:17	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,021	10¢	$500	0x79056c…
06-01 16:12:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xbc5663…
06-01 16:12:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x44e2c6…
06-01 16:12:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x7e82e0…
06-01 16:11:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7b280a…
06-01 16:10:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,282	39¢	$500	0xa2a9cd…
05-31 19:02:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0xa314a0…
05-31 19:01:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0xfa1cb9…
05-31 19:01:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0xf8552f…
05-31 19:01:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x8417a4…
05-31 19:00:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0x6054ca…
05-31 19:00:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	50¢	$500	0x5d0bc1…
05-31 17:09:03	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0x8f7738…
05-31 17:08:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0x022e27…
05-31 17:08:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0xb7c4a0…
05-31 17:08:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0xa38a99…
05-31 17:08:25	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x97c1ae…
05-31 17:08:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0xbb1cf3…
05-31 17:07:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x28f5dc…
05-31 16:58:23	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,635	31¢	$500	0x4ed480…
05-31 09:16:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0x3a9008…