Improbable-Muffin-Bronchitis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

35.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,272

lifetime

Volume

$114.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$90

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-28

last 07-19 10:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

63% — —

Politics

36% 50% $-44

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	95	$22.6K	27,426	27,423	+3	open	—	05-06 19:33
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	325	$22.2K	49,122	5,008	+44,113	open	—	05-06 19:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	116	$12.9K	28,178	28,178	+0	open	—	04-18 19:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	55	$11.6K	19,143	19,141	+3	open	—	05-06 19:32
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	83	$8.1K	14,693	22,824	-8,132	open	—	07-19 05:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	65	$7.1K	19,029	8,810	+10,220	open	—	04-24 13:10
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	112	$6.1K	12,748	12,748	+0	open	—	04-21 11:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	52	$4.8K	26,767	26,754	+13	Yes	$-270	05-06 19:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	53	$3.4K	5,550	21,764	-16,215	open	—	07-09 08:40
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	57	$3.0K	14,213	18	+14,194	open	—	06-21 11:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	37	$2.4K	4,144	4,140	+4	Yes	+$189	05-06 19:37
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	21	$1.5K	10,677	10	+10,667	open	—	06-21 11:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	64	$1.5K	27,510	5,991	+21,519	open	—	04-22 15:39
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.2K	1	1,352	-1,351	open	—	05-31 05:48
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	11	$1.1K	768	767	+1	open	—	05-06 19:31
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	7	$1.1K	1,222	1,220	+2	open	—	05-06 10:27
Thunder vs. Spurs	7	$1.0K	2,441	2	+2,440	open	—	05-28 21:24
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$416	1,138	1,138	+0	open	—	04-01 19:07
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	12	$403	12,101	50	+12,051	open	—	04-22 15:49
wti up or down on april 20 2026	18	$338	3,842	2,020	+1,822	open	—	04-20 13:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$334	0	1,237	-1,237	open	—	05-30 20:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	13	$243	2,756	2,756	+0	Yes	+$37	04-26 09:57
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$162	831	831	+0	open	—	04-05 23:49
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$161	737	737	+0	open	—	04-05 23:48
anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	6	$153	0	476	-476	open	—	06-20 18:08
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$118	802	802	+0	open	—	04-05 23:49
Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$113	622	622	+0	open	—	04-05 23:47
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$112	1,212	0	+1,212	open	—	04-07 20:31
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$111	810	810	+0	open	—	04-05 23:49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$102	1,116	9	+1,107	open	—	04-26 08:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 10:40:22	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4b915f…
07-19 05:58:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x115689…
07-19 05:58:39	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x2dcd79…
07-19 05:58:33	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xdd892f…
07-19 05:58:10	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	13¢	$1	0x545403…
07-19 05:57:51	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0x7fec5d…
07-19 05:57:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	13¢	$4	0x541f33…
07-19 05:57:18	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	13¢	$10	0xaac273…
07-19 05:56:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa5f067…
07-19 05:56:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xf2bce3…
07-19 05:55:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	13¢	$52	0xebd3b8…
07-19 05:54:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	13¢	$260	0x77fb63…
07-17 03:50:52	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	14¢	$0	0x368284…
07-17 03:50:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	14¢	$0	0x967f05…
07-17 03:50:03	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0xbcc88b…
07-17 03:49:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0x911dbb…
07-17 03:49:07	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0xa81669…
07-17 03:48:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	14¢	$56	0x740703…
07-17 03:48:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	14¢	$210	0x670c98…
07-17 00:49:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,958	14¢	$974	0x571286…
07-09 16:28:50	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xf84982…
07-09 16:28:29	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x26477e…
07-09 16:28:19	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x52c06c…
07-09 16:27:59	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x8ddc0e…
07-09 16:27:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x03df38…
07-09 16:27:43	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x7fded7…
07-09 16:27:17	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x4fcdf0…
07-09 16:26:50	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xb77ee1…
07-09 16:26:26	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0x4b5a8e…
07-09 16:25:53	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x759939…
07-09 16:25:35	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	12¢	$3	0xb15fb1…
07-09 16:25:07	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	12¢	$8	0x9cdd88…
07-09 16:24:49	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0xc8d1e7…
07-09 16:24:19	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	12¢	$60	0x903e1d…
07-09 16:23:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	12¢	$120	0x53a58b…
07-09 16:23:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	13¢	$130	0x873bef…
07-09 16:22:20	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	13¢	$130	0x4e5378…
07-09 08:40:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xfa6995…
07-09 08:40:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xa5845e…
07-09 08:40:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x647584…
07-09 08:40:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x9b0904…
07-09 08:40:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x0b0665…
07-09 08:39:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xc61d29…
07-09 08:39:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x8976d2…
07-09 08:39:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xbcefed…
07-09 08:39:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x9de099…
07-09 08:39:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x1ff590…
07-09 08:38:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x4ab600…
07-09 08:38:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xaf129c…
07-09 08:37:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xfedfcc…
07-09 08:35:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x32800f…
07-09 08:35:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xc73a6f…
07-09 08:34:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0xb94484…
07-09 08:34:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x15f8cf…
07-09 08:34:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x180d69…
07-09 08:34:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	22	4¢	$1	0xb52078…
07-09 08:34:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x4caa1c…
07-09 08:33:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0xdfe34e…
07-09 08:33:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	150	4¢	$6	0x4b29be…
07-09 08:33:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	300	4¢	$12	0x78bd49…
07-09 08:33:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	650	4¢	$26	0xdcc499…
07-09 08:32:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	4¢	$60	0x1c6a86…
07-09 08:32:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	4,000	4¢	$160	0x588027…
07-09 08:32:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	15,000	4¢	$600	0x439651…
07-09 01:35:59	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xcde6e9…
07-09 01:35:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x93e279…
07-09 01:35:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x613c1e…
07-09 01:35:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xddeafb…
07-09 01:35:19	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xeb593e…
07-09 01:34:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x175e4d…
07-09 01:33:58	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0x712c03…
07-09 01:33:41	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x87fabc…
07-09 01:33:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x68134e…
07-09 01:33:13	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x1bcafd…
07-09 01:32:52	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7,500	13¢	$993	0xaea9a0…
06-21 11:05:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xd0e399…
06-21 11:03:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x389f43…
06-21 11:02:44	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x04f6f9…
06-21 11:02:31	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x7dac32…
06-21 11:02:20	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x25e450…
06-21 11:02:08	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x420703…
06-21 11:01:47	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x2ffd7b…
06-21 11:01:35	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x09f613…
06-21 11:01:04	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x9438fe…
06-21 11:00:26	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x81b491…
06-21 11:00:16	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x2bafa2…
06-21 10:59:59	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x99fa53…
06-21 10:59:23	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xc92f65…
06-21 10:59:13	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xf47915…
06-21 10:58:28	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x6f87de…
06-21 10:57:37	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x6f3ff8…
06-21 10:55:29	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xba8323…
06-21 10:55:01	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0xebbec6…
06-21 10:49:55	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xde946f…
06-21 10:49:38	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xe78729…
06-21 10:47:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	23¢	$0	0x57f65f…
06-21 10:47:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	23¢	$0	0x378d6a…
06-21 10:46:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x02da64…
06-21 10:45:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x39c95a…
06-21 10:45:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0xf33d7f…