Organic-Test — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19.0K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.7%

Resolved

Trades

4,934

lifetime

Volume

$2.24M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$454

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-07 01:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

79% 33% +$15,910

Other

18% 100% +$3,990

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-900

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 147 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	139	$149.2K	412,589	369,702	+42,887	open	—	04-07 23:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	138	$92.3K	328,180	317,472	+10,709	open	—	05-24 14:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	101	$87.2K	301,972	301,972	+0	open	—	05-30 15:09
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	86	$64.1K	41,657	41,657	+0	open	—	02-27 20:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	38	$52.2K	74,031	72,002	+2,029	open	—	05-25 15:33
will trump visit china by march 31	97	$42.6K	62,123	47,874	+14,249	open	—	03-16 12:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	18	$41.5K	44,472	44,472	+0	open	—	04-25 21:22
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	44	$39.8K	122,462	98,656	+23,806	open	—	04-15 21:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	118	$39.1K	50,455	50,443	+12	open	—	06-20 14:04
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	26	$38.2K	24,072	20,282	+3,791	open	—	04-10 14:43
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	118	$35.2K	26,514	28,846	-2,332	open	—	04-11 05:30
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	21	$34.3K	21,216	21,216	+0	open	—	04-16 15:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	28	$33.8K	23,978	23,978	+0	open	—	02-28 19:31
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	95	$30.0K	46,646	41,830	+4,816	open	—	02-04 20:08
starmer out by june 22 2026	43	$27.2K	23,517	23,517	+0	open	—	06-22 10:22
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	28	$26.3K	23,885	24,002	-117	open	—	07-29 12:50
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	17	$25.1K	18,224	18,470	-246	open	—	06-14 21:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	158	$24.9K	27,033	24,692	+2,341	open	—	04-20 18:24
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	68	$24.7K	30,331	30,303	+28	open	—	06-19 02:21
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	51	$24.5K	39,555	36,558	+2,997	open	—	01-29 19:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	17	$23.6K	25,850	25,850	+0	No	$-911	05-05 14:45
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	52	$23.4K	34,594	36,594	-2,000	open	—	06-14 16:47
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	36	$23.2K	21,326	21,326	+0	open	—	06-08 03:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	59	$23.1K	26,729	26,160	+569	open	—	06-14 21:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	4	$22.8K	13,180	13,180	+0	open	—	04-25 16:17
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	30	$22.7K	15,498	15,498	+0	open	—	04-17 18:37
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	64	$21.9K	81,217	81,217	+0	open	—	06-12 19:13
us forces enter iran by march 7	34	$20.7K	15,420	15,420	+0	open	—	03-05 07:11
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	38	$20.3K	28,440	28,440	+0	open	—	04-21 20:13
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	64	$19.5K	20,235	22,235	-2,000	open	—	03-08 21:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 01:42:33	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	BUY	31	91¢	$28	0x7ad75a…
08-04 19:47:21	Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	SELL	200	79¢	$158	0x60df92…
08-04 19:46:47	Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	SELL	500	79¢	$396	0xcb74b0…
08-04 19:46:29	Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	SELL	250	79¢	$198	0x14392a…
08-04 19:43:27	Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0xb2e26d…
08-04 19:38:39	Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	SELL	297	79¢	$235	0x04cf6e…
08-04 19:37:53	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	962	96¢	$920	0x9255ed…
08-04 18:42:14	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0xe01702…
08-04 18:42:12	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x5c1460…
08-04 18:38:56	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x351247…
08-04 10:44:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,000	43¢	$860	0x3d2604…
08-03 16:19:45	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	278	48¢	$133	0xb92e38…
08-02 03:49:06	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x615c64…
08-02 03:45:27	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	683	48¢	$328	0x1a7f03…
08-02 03:19:05	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	65	48¢	$31	0xbbe35a…
08-02 03:16:44	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	68	48¢	$33	0xb4dc2f…
08-02 03:12:08	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	64	48¢	$31	0x77d95e…
08-02 02:47:41	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0xe54f13…
08-02 02:47:33	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0xd56272…
08-02 02:47:27	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0xd3da2e…
08-02 02:47:20	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x46aa89…
08-02 02:47:14	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0xec5a79…
08-02 02:39:11	icelandic european union membership negotiations referendum passes 20260609135241589	Yes	BUY	682	48¢	$328	0xba8c7b…
08-01 20:56:27	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	Yes	SELL	538	13¢	$72	0x97e6e0…
08-01 03:23:48	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	Yes	BUY	538	37¢	$200	0x88ed17…
07-31 00:53:20	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	2,635	85¢	$2,249	0x128ca7…
07-30 22:25:17	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	878	53¢	$465	0xbf00cf…
07-30 19:31:36	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	1,000	69¢	$690	0xf78e01…
07-30 10:28:15	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	1,429	35¢	$500	0x04a500…
07-30 07:44:23	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	2,085	31¢	$656	0x779115…
07-29 12:50:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	491	90¢	$443	0x9c6242…
07-29 12:49:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	249	90¢	$225	0xdee584…
07-29 12:38:38	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	631	93¢	$589	0x21c35c…
07-29 12:37:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	420	92¢	$388	0xf9e641…
07-29 12:35:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	737	92¢	$679	0x50c2bc…
07-29 12:35:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x0064e5…
07-29 12:35:35	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	561	92¢	$516	0x45a796…
07-29 12:22:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	1,772	93¢	$1,649	0x4c1095…
07-29 12:15:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	3,452	84¢	$2,917	0x18cec0…
07-29 12:15:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	3,636	80¢	$2,909	0xd09fee…
07-29 12:14:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	11,299	25¢	$2,773	0x0f54f5…
07-29 11:47:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	1,340	37¢	$493	0x284f8f…
07-29 11:47:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	1,501	33¢	$499	0x5d3738…
07-29 11:47:20	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	1,694	28¢	$477	0x9af589…
07-29 11:01:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	2,032	24¢	$495	0x2baeeb…
07-29 10:57:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0x312dd6…
07-29 10:50:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	2,057	21¢	$437	0xd58a5f…
07-29 10:44:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	2,673	18¢	$490	0x733d32…
07-29 10:40:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	1,333	87¢	$1,165	0x100146…
07-29 10:37:53	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	438	80¢	$350	0xf4be0f…
07-29 10:37:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	236	78¢	$184	0xb00c0f…
07-29 10:37:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	40	78¢	$31	0x17f47c…
07-28 22:41:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	957	65¢	$622	0x942fd3…
07-28 22:41:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	1,353	80¢	$1,079	0x87d54f…
07-28 22:40:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	4,058	80¢	$3,232	0xd328b1…
07-28 22:18:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	87	75¢	$65	0xc5bbdd…
07-28 22:15:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	957	67¢	$638	0x40d14f…
07-28 22:13:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	2,748	73¢	$2,000	0xe8663c…
07-28 22:12:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	2,750	73¢	$2,000	0xf33b86…
07-28 17:20:58	will houthis successfully target shipping on july 28 2026 20260722225036921	Yes	SELL	93	65¢	$60	0xc0eb14…
07-28 17:07:58	will houthis successfully target shipping on july 28 2026 20260722225036921	Yes	BUY	11	39¢	$4	0x36b12d…
07-28 17:07:16	will houthis successfully target shipping on july 28 2026 20260722225036921	Yes	BUY	11	32¢	$3	0xad14bb…
07-28 17:06:47	will houthis successfully target shipping on july 28 2026 20260722225036921	Yes	BUY	772	21¢	$165	0x34f991…
07-28 15:20:17	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	989	4¢	$41	0x1a8d48…
07-27 23:32:42	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	SELL	3,465	98¢	$3,392	0xcebb94…
07-27 18:35:22	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	9,689	2¢	$213	0x90e8e3…
07-27 17:08:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	1,822	3¢	$53	0xc948d6…
07-27 17:05:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	11,511	2¢	$209	0xfb16d6…
07-27 16:26:37	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	1,466	90¢	$1,320	0x54f4e1…
07-27 16:26:36	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	44	90¢	$40	0x166e76…
07-27 16:26:34	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	1,289	90¢	$1,160	0x9c3f93…
07-27 16:26:27	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x5206e5…
07-27 16:26:24	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	82	90¢	$74	0x56ad03…
07-27 16:26:22	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x83993b…
07-27 16:26:22	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x1ab9da…
07-27 16:26:21	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	1,955	90¢	$1,760	0xe3c1a6…
07-27 16:26:21	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x05117c…
07-27 16:26:19	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	142	90¢	$127	0xc72a2b…
07-27 16:25:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	1,561	5¢	$78	0x6a41c2…
07-27 15:06:48	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	2,439	40¢	$981	0x4dc6d3…
07-27 15:02:54	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	2,564	38¢	$980	0x461822…
07-25 03:22:03	will houthis successfully target shipping on july 24 2026 20260722225036917	Yes	SELL	45	85¢	$38	0xb902f4…
07-25 02:40:30	will houthis successfully target shipping on july 24 2026 20260722225036917	Yes	SELL	55	85¢	$47	0xb86524…
07-25 02:24:18	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	4,263	8¢	$347	0x6208ba…
07-24 22:12:25	will houthis successfully target shipping on july 24 2026 20260722225036917	Yes	SELL	90	85¢	$76	0x685afe…
07-24 21:58:39	will houthis successfully target shipping on july 24 2026 20260722225036917	Yes	SELL	462	89¢	$411	0x993a6f…
07-24 19:53:28	Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	BUY	398	72¢	$287	0x1ab843…
07-24 19:53:27	Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	BUY	949	68¢	$645	0x115187…
07-24 19:47:13	will houthis successfully target shipping on july 24 2026 20260722225036917	Yes	SELL	150	80¢	$120	0xa873d4…
07-24 19:38:07	will houthis successfully target shipping on july 24 2026 20260722225036917	Yes	BUY	802	30¢	$241	0xfb10a5…
07-24 16:21:01	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	12	12¢	$2	0xc6289a…
07-24 16:21:00	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0xfa4cb7…
07-24 16:21:00	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	481	12¢	$58	0x373173…
07-24 16:21:00	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	15	12¢	$2	0x038bc7…
07-24 16:20:58	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0xd864cd…
07-24 16:19:55	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	12	12¢	$2	0xd92530…
07-24 16:19:54	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x6e917d…
07-24 16:19:54	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x6bf9c7…
07-24 16:19:28	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	250	12¢	$30	0x85fbe5…
07-24 16:18:22	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	SELL	374	12¢	$45	0x2bb19f…