Upset-Halfbrother — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.4%

Resolved

313

Trades

794

lifetime

Volume

$32.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-07 12:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 91 days

Categories

Other

65% 83% -$363

Sports

13% 69% +$124

Politics

8% 50% -$29

Crypto

8% 90% +$214

Tech

6% 100% +$63

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 127 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	8	$2.2K	1,536	1,108	+428	Yes	+$134	07-19 22:42
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	7	$1.2K	620	620	+0	open	—	11-07 12:37
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$1.1K	591	591	+0	Yes	+$37	11-04 01:23
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$1.1K	581	581	+0	Yes	+$76	04-25 03:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$1.0K	556	556	+0	Yes	+$46	04-28 00:56
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	3	$955	498	498	+0	Yes	+$29	03-05 10:33
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$935	483	483	+0	Yes	+$17	03-16 03:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$934	500	500	+0	Yes	+$64	10-28 18:14
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	7	$898	466	466	+0	Yes	+$23	02-17 09:34
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$721	281	481	-200	Yes	+$21	01-22 13:24
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	2	$611	430	200	+230	Yes	+$7	09-09 13:13
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$534	300	300	+0	Yes	-$6	06-05 16:22
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 11?	8	$396	400	0	+400	Yes	+$4	09-11 11:51
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 13?	6	$392	420	0	+420	No	-$392	09-13 09:21
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	4	$304	272	180	+92	No	-$26	05-29 04:54
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$262	200	200	+0	Yes	-$50	01-29 04:34
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$234	183	183	+0	No	-$66	05-14 11:53
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	2	$233	149	149	+0	Spurs	+$33	05-09 13:07
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$200	211	0	+211	Yes	+$11	09-09 15:53
Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 200B HKD?	2	$200	201	0	+201	Yes	+$1	09-01 11:21
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 26?	3	$198	200	0	+200	Yes	+$2	08-26 09:02
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 5?	3	$198	100	100	+0	Yes	+$2	09-06 09:06
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 6?	2	$198	200	0	+200	Yes	+$2	09-06 09:04
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 16?	3	$197	100	100	+0	Yes	+$2	08-16 14:17
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 8?	2	$196	200	0	+200	Yes	+$4	09-08 09:15
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 24?	4	$195	200	0	+200	Yes	+$5	08-24 08:53
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	3	$186	110	110	+0	Yes	+$34	06-11 22:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$171	642	100	+542	No	-$103	09-14 14:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	34	$170	172	0	+172	Up	+$2	05-14 05:34
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$161	100	100	+0	Yes	+$3	09-14 14:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 12:37:00	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	620	98¢	$609	0x12d8d9…
11-05 03:01:34	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	94¢	$66	0x029e4d…
11-05 03:01:33	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x5cfeb3…
11-05 03:01:31	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xb5104e…
11-05 03:01:16	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	94¢	$235	0xf8e399…
11-05 03:00:55	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	94¢	$212	0x3c8280…
11-05 02:59:45	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0xdac81b…
11-04 01:23:12	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	591	99¢	$587	0xcdd941…
10-28 18:26:02	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	591	93¢	$550	0xadc656…
10-28 18:14:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0xf08440…
10-28 03:16:55	Spread: Lakers (-1.5)	Lakers	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x1d4f46…
10-18 07:55:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	87¢	$435	0xe198d6…
09-14 14:28:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	542	16¢	$87	0x73bfc8…
09-14 14:16:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0x3749ef…
09-13 09:21:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	80	95¢	$76	0x70f85a…
09-13 09:18:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xc18732…
09-13 09:16:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x40ec1e…
09-13 09:15:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xd38270…
09-13 09:15:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	77	92¢	$71	0xf76360…
09-13 09:15:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x8f978d…
09-12 09:18:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x222974…
09-11 11:51:03	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	144	99¢	$143	0xbcdd50…
09-11 11:27:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x868f84…
09-11 11:17:39	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xe6793b…
09-11 10:20:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x5ef3a1…
09-11 10:19:09	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x543c2e…
09-11 10:18:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$4	0x08330c…
09-11 10:17:24	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xaa695d…
09-10 22:46:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0xb985fd…
09-09 15:53:15	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xfa0d53…
09-09 13:13:22	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0xbdc59f…
09-09 12:44:58	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xc252bf…
09-09 12:37:12	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xd156c1…
09-09 06:47:13	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	430	97¢	$417	0x48fa28…
09-08 09:23:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x7d6280…
09-08 09:18:58	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x231124…
09-08 09:15:06	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x7bd3a2…
09-08 09:14:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x6190c1…
09-07 09:51:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xdec4bf…
09-07 09:15:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x2537d1…
09-07 09:13:45	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x0b3b9d…
09-07 09:11:48	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xe2e0bc…
09-07 09:11:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x717cb1…
09-07 09:11:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	31	98¢	$31	0x6822e9…
09-07 09:10:21	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xc35a32…
09-07 09:07:51	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x5ab85d…
09-07 09:05:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xe1eb5f…
09-07 09:04:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	65	99¢	$65	0x866f44…
09-07 09:04:39	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x99eb35…
09-07 09:04:37	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x33b514…
09-06 09:16:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x93b7a2…
09-06 09:06:43	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 5?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x711d1f…
09-06 09:04:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5007c3…
09-06 09:01:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xface2c…
09-06 04:39:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xdba10d…
09-05 09:58:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xd2411e…
09-05 09:58:40	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd35891…
09-05 09:58:40	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x9abf68…
09-05 09:58:40	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x2ae402…
09-05 09:58:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2e9675…
09-05 09:58:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0xd5c52a…
09-05 09:58:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd45336…
09-05 09:58:34	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xe485fb…
09-05 09:58:34	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x394d24…
09-05 09:58:34	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x261aef…
09-05 07:47:42	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x62107d…
09-05 07:43:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xde0e21…
09-05 07:35:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x4082db…
09-05 07:33:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x9dd2c0…
09-05 07:33:25	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x102431…
09-05 07:31:25	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x6d2b02…
09-05 07:28:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb23075…
09-05 07:27:57	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x78ef66…
09-05 07:27:04	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf1c466…
09-05 07:25:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x8a75c1…
09-05 07:17:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	95	98¢	$93	0x8bab68…
09-05 07:12:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xeaf9e5…
09-05 04:58:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x9eaa85…
09-05 04:51:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x4646e9…
09-04 08:07:03	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x45b3f8…
09-04 08:06:19	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0x82d389…
09-04 08:06:19	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x59d357…
09-04 08:06:18	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6171bc…
09-04 08:06:16	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x520860…
09-04 07:45:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xdfb239…
09-04 07:42:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0xc3bc99…
09-04 07:39:21	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x5b6c23…
09-04 07:34:00	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x7896c1…
09-03 08:15:49	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x44352d…
09-03 08:15:36	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	70	98¢	$69	0x436b24…
09-03 07:41:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xa6191f…
09-03 07:36:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x5a58fb…
09-03 07:36:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xa68a7f…
09-03 07:32:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xd57bc0…
09-03 07:29:57	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x2a6072…
09-02 09:26:25	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x8ea148…
09-02 09:25:37	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2fef27…
09-02 09:02:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x46f41f…
09-02 09:02:19	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9c582d…
09-02 08:25:21	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xc018c0…