Carefree-Guarantee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$65

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.2%

Resolved

338

Trades

13,397

lifetime

Volume

$79.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-15 05:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 85% $-35

Sports

1% 25% $-30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 405 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1767311100	213	$3.3K	5,431	5,431	+0	open	—	01-01 23:55
btc updown 15m 1767241800	299	$2.6K	5,484	0	+5,484	open	—	01-01 04:43
btc updown 15m 1767244500	278	$2.3K	4,524	0	+4,524	open	—	01-01 05:28
btc updown 15m 1767230100	269	$2.2K	3,775	0	+3,775	open	—	01-01 01:25
btc updown 15m 1767227400	294	$2.0K	3,911	0	+3,911	open	—	01-01 00:43
btc updown 15m 1767226500	211	$1.8K	3,776	0	+3,776	open	—	01-01 00:28
btc updown 15m 1767231900	75	$1.8K	2,803	0	+2,803	open	—	01-01 01:57
btc updown 15m 1767420000	95	$1.7K	3,637	0	+3,637	open	—	01-03 06:06
btc updown 15m 1767229200	195	$1.7K	3,420	0	+3,420	open	—	01-01 01:10
btc updown 15m 1767251700	219	$1.6K	3,090	0	+3,090	open	—	01-01 07:28
btc updown 15m 1767231000	168	$1.6K	2,067	0	+2,067	open	—	01-01 01:44
btc updown 15m 1767316500	330	$1.6K	3,290	0	+3,290	open	—	01-02 01:27
btc updown 15m 1767245400	187	$1.5K	3,022	0	+3,022	open	—	01-01 05:42
btc updown 15m 1767228300	186	$1.5K	2,972	0	+2,972	open	—	01-01 00:58
btc updown 15m 1767240900	184	$1.5K	2,650	0	+2,650	open	—	01-01 04:28
btc updown 15m 1767318300	284	$1.4K	2,795	0	+2,795	open	—	01-02 01:58
btc updown 15m 1767333600	334	$1.3K	1,989	0	+1,989	open	—	01-02 06:13
btc updown 15m 1767291300	185	$1.3K	2,997	0	+2,997	open	—	01-01 18:27
btc updown 15m 1767416400	65	$1.3K	2,671	0	+2,671	open	—	01-03 05:12
btc updown 15m 1767248100	171	$1.2K	2,800	0	+2,800	open	—	01-01 06:28
btc updown 15m 1767246300	179	$1.2K	2,714	0	+2,714	open	—	01-01 05:58
btc updown 15m 1767250800	146	$1.2K	2,124	0	+2,124	open	—	01-01 07:13
btc updown 15m 1767303000	266	$1.1K	2,269	0	+2,269	open	—	01-01 21:43
btc updown 15m 1767407400	67	$1.0K	2,734	0	+2,734	open	—	01-03 02:42
btc updown 15m 1767225600	134	$1.0K	1,804	0	+1,804	open	—	01-01 00:10
btc updown 15m 1767303900	217	$1.0K	1,728	0	+1,728	open	—	01-01 21:55
btc updown 15m 1767304800	229	$923	1,924	0	+1,924	open	—	01-01 22:10
btc updown 15m 1770701400	217	$882	1,465	0	+1,465	open	—	02-10 05:43
btc updown 15m 1770702300	223	$850	1,632	0	+1,632	open	—	02-10 05:57
btc updown 15m 1767417300	52	$848	2,260	0	+2,260	open	—	01-03 05:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 05:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xfcb153…
05-15 05:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xcbee3d…
05-15 05:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x40c93a…
05-15 05:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xbb9cb8…
05-15 05:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x3836c5…
05-15 04:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x556f5e…
05-15 04:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xdec62f…
05-15 04:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3ea0d1…
05-15 04:53:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6a8229…
05-15 03:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x665b46…
05-15 03:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xfb96a6…
05-15 03:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xb89ad8…
05-15 03:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x07d9cc…
05-15 02:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x705ce3…
05-15 02:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x83cdea…
05-15 02:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x978a5e…
05-15 01:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xf70363…
05-15 01:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x2c62fe…
05-15 01:29:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbc0412…
05-15 01:28:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc8f59f…
05-15 01:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x3d2d82…
05-15 01:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xb3fea3…
05-15 01:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x83024b…
05-15 01:09:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x263ec3…
05-15 01:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x6c214d…
05-15 00:39:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2a39b8…
05-15 00:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x224b3c…
05-15 00:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x52c04f…
05-15 00:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe711f5…
05-15 00:28:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xe27883…
05-15 00:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x36d7f6…
05-15 00:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x875460…
05-15 00:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf8484a…
05-15 00:13:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6b8a21…
05-15 00:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8f2270…
05-15 00:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa2df4a…
05-15 00:03:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xcc3900…
05-14 23:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xea37da…
05-14 23:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3a0e19…
05-14 23:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x353bc4…
05-14 23:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x53f420…
05-14 23:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x50c1c5…
05-14 23:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc0cbbd…
05-14 23:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x06e047…
05-14 23:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb9252c…
05-14 23:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xf8d27f…
05-14 23:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xca89ea…
05-14 23:03:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9bf4e8…
05-14 23:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa4c1d4…
05-14 23:00:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x26a5de…
05-14 22:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x8a30b5…
05-14 22:54:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x41dace…
05-14 22:53:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe1dde8…
05-14 22:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xd86684…
05-14 22:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xa994ed…
05-14 22:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe22f73…
05-14 22:33:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x15c6fe…
05-14 22:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8246fd…
05-14 22:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbf9817…
05-14 22:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x668074…
05-14 22:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3fff18…
05-14 22:09:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x2617b9…
05-14 22:09:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0a56d3…
05-14 22:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8cb01a…
05-14 21:58:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6e2f5d…
05-14 21:58:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4bf1da…
05-14 21:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x941dd2…
05-14 21:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x48a095…
05-14 21:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe72d6b…
05-14 21:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x497a88…
05-14 21:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x14c7a4…
05-14 21:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6a96c6…
05-14 21:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xed2fa6…
05-14 21:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x7fab39…
05-14 21:33:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x98c7bd…
05-14 21:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2a8d4d…
05-14 21:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe83beb…
05-14 21:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x17b5ae…
05-14 21:23:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa31d61…
05-14 21:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe7cde1…
05-14 21:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x632232…
05-14 21:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc186ba…
05-14 21:13:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6a588e…
05-14 21:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0c1b4b…
05-14 21:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x1a41bc…
05-14 21:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x4c6cbd…
05-14 21:03:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb469da…
05-14 20:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0f68e6…
05-14 20:54:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x75d2ed…
05-14 20:48:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb181ed…
05-14 20:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa087f3…
05-14 20:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5d4b5f…
05-14 20:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x247438…
05-14 20:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x1a4e59…
05-14 20:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3e3ab5…
05-14 20:28:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x6dd053…
05-14 20:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xc619b8…
05-14 20:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbe54ee…
05-14 20:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb1263c…
05-14 20:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xd2ef21…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de	879	$1.85K	3,950	05-15 05:29
(anonymous) 0x38e5…8a4a	841	$255.4K	71,811	05-15 05:28
(anonymous) 0x8852…c569	818	$92.7K	22,662	05-15 05:28
(anonymous) 0x88f4…d4db	786	$205.0K	26,618	05-15 05:28
Dry-Solvency 0x5d3c…c298	786	$44.3K	6,194	05-15 05:26
Joyful-Algorithm 0xf16a…f999	786	$29.9K	2,004	05-15 05:26
Worldly-Miracle 0x7041…5c73	775	$63.2K	18,425	05-15 05:28
Animated-Health 0x4d8b…a00d	769	$60.7K	7,369	05-15 05:25