Carefree-Guarantee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

89.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-07 07:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 94% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	1	$1	5	-5	Down	+$1	05-07 05:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	1	$1	5	-5	Up	+$1	05-07 06:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	1	$1	5	-5	open	—	05-07 07:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	1	$1	5	-5	Down	$-4	05-07 04:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	1	$1	5	-5	open	—	05-07 06:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	1	$1	5	-5	Down	+$1	05-07 04:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	1	$1	5	-5	Down	+$1	05-07 04:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	1	$1	5	-5	Up	+$1	05-07 04:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Down	+$0	05-07 04:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Up	+$0	05-07 04:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Down	+$0	05-07 05:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Up	+$0	05-07 06:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Down	+$0	05-07 05:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Up	+$0	05-04 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	1	$0	5	-5	open	—	05-07 06:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Down	+$0	05-07 03:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Up	+$0	05-07 03:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Up	+$0	05-07 03:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Down	+$0	05-07 03:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	1	$0	5	-5	Down	+$0	05-07 06:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	1	$0	5	-5	open	—	05-07 06:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-07 07:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x154f7d…
05-07 06:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xfe9a40…
05-07 06:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x2f28d4…
05-07 06:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x1081c5…
05-07 06:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xba8eef…
05-07 06:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x0004ec…
05-07 06:13:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x54a48f…
05-07 05:48:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x130499…
05-07 05:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xadae65…
05-07 05:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x8508d8…
05-07 04:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x1bf1eb…
05-07 04:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x9ca34e…
05-07 04:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x483cc0…
05-07 04:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xb91525…
05-07 04:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xd407ce…
05-07 04:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x662665…
05-07 03:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x580eb6…
05-07 03:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x7752f1…
05-07 03:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xd04f7f…
05-07 03:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x51d06d…
05-04 23:49:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x4ae186…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	21	$2.97K	113	05-07 07:19
Impossible-Bolt 0xc905…b394	19	$1.59K	27	05-07 07:19
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	16	$12.5K	68	05-07 07:19
Mad-Plot 0x2709…20f5	16	$1.19K	127	05-07 06:59
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	15	$1.38K	112	05-07 07:19
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	14	$1.41K	28	05-07 06:59
Far-Market 0x01ee…618f	10	$2.30K	14	05-07 05:48
Hidden-Chafe 0x500c…0a6f	10	$947	10	05-07 06:59