Insidious-Octavo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$29

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

16.3%

Resolved

Trades

459

lifetime

Volume

$1.53K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-07 14:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

62% — —

Other

37% 25% +$29

Politics

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 76k january 26 1	2	$154	500	500	+0	open	—	01-31 17:11
bitcoin above 82k on january 31	4	$111	115	115	+0	open	—	01-31 14:53
will bitcoin dip to 80k january 26 1	2	$85	115	115	+0	open	—	01-31 16:33
bitcoin above 86k on january 29	3	$56	66	66	+0	open	—	01-29 15:33
will 28 years later bone temple opening weekend box office be less than 16m	2	$40	26	26	+0	open	—	01-17 11:06
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 220 239	3	$32	176	176	+0	open	—	02-07 06:13
bank of japan increases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting	5	$31	5,195	0	+5,195	open	—	03-13 18:51
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 160m and 170m	6	$29	12,627	4,870	+7,757	open	—	04-05 17:54
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 65 89	2	$24	24	23	+1	open	—	04-15 16:17
bitcoin above 78k on february 2	3	$20	26	26	+0	open	—	02-02 12:35
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 390m and 395m by january 31 213	8	$20	1,425	0	+1,425	open	—	01-29 17:11
bitcoin above 94k on january 18	3	$19	543	0	+543	open	—	01-18 14:52
ethereum above 1800 on march 3	2	$18	640	0	+640	open	—	03-03 10:47
no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	5	$18	776	0	+776	open	—	03-17 11:33
Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$18	11	11	+0	open	—	02-03 20:47
bitcoin above 66k on february 10	1	$17	620	0	+620	open	—	02-09 23:11
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	5	$17	704	0	+704	open	—	01-28 16:14
will the price of ethereum be less than 1700 on march 11	1	$17	782	0	+782	open	—	03-09 05:22
btc updown 15m 1775401200	2	$16	17	16	+1	open	—	04-05 15:16
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	9	$15	402	0	+402	Yes	$-15	04-24 19:00
will mrbeast hit 460 million subscribers by january 31	3	$14	2,898	2,898	+0	open	—	01-10 16:14
will solo mio opening weekend box office be greater than 8pt5m	3	$14	431	0	+431	open	—	02-08 09:54
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	1	$14	931	0	+931	open	—	04-06 18:23
will avatar fire and ash 5th weekend box office be between 14pt5m and 16m	1	$14	18	0	+18	open	—	01-19 16:10
will scream 7 opening weekend box office be greater than 65m	2	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	02-28 08:30
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 0 39	3	$13	81	20	+61	open	—	02-14 07:30
bitcoin above 58k on february 28	3	$13	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-28 13:05
bitcoin above 80k on january 30	4	$13	316	0	+316	open	—	01-30 05:54
btc updown 15m 1767882600	3	$13	24	24	+0	open	—	01-08 14:39
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	3	$12	400	400	+0	open	—	02-06 18:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 14:27:16	btc updown 5m 1780842300	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x42deba…
06-07 14:22:45	btc updown 5m 1780842000	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x70b7d5…
06-07 14:17:49	btc updown 5m 1780841700	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x091970…
06-07 14:10:00	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 1 7 2026	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xfec0ba…
06-07 13:52:54	btc updown 5m 1780840200	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf37e39…
06-07 13:49:00	btc updown 5m 1780839900	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xa0d1e0…
06-07 13:37:07	btc updown 5m 1780839300	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x733496…
06-07 11:19:21	btc updown 5m 1780830900	Down	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0xa681a9…
06-07 11:18:03	btc updown 5m 1780830900	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x39de88…
06-07 11:13:39	btc updown 5m 1780830600	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xd67ea0…
06-07 11:04:01	btc updown 5m 1780830000	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xea2287…
06-07 11:03:33	btc updown 5m 1780830000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9e946a…
06-07 11:01:03	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 1 7 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xdd0654…
06-06 13:07:30	btc updown 5m 1780751100	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xdc62c3…
06-06 10:57:51	btc updown 5m 1780743300	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xa7ec65…
06-06 10:21:48	will scary movie score at least 50 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x2a98c8…
06-06 05:08:30	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?	No	BUY	1,492	0¢	$2	0x6f78aa…
06-05 17:17:07	will scary movie score at least 50 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x091e3e…
06-05 17:10:54	will ethereum dip to 1300 june 1 7 2026	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x0702b4…
06-05 16:17:12	ethereum above 1600 on june 5 2026	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x10e789…
06-05 15:06:55	ethereum above 1600 on june 5 2026	No	SELL	12	57¢	$7	0x6e30ae…
06-05 14:47:00	bitcoin above 64k on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x043fe0…
06-05 10:46:45	ethereum above 1600 on june 5 2026	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xbe28ed…
06-05 10:44:31	xrp above 1pt3 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf40c1b…
05-28 15:46:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28?	No	SELL	118	0¢	$0	0xab3fae…
05-28 15:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x18c0d1…
05-28 14:45:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	No	SELL	333	0¢	$0	0x2f796b…
05-28 14:40:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x669762…
05-28 14:38:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28?	Yes	SELL	167	0¢	$0	0x18d100…
05-28 06:42:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x7e40bc…
05-28 06:42:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x99eef8…
05-28 04:28:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?	No	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0xe0f522…
05-27 17:27:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xc00b1a…
05-27 17:06:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	118	1¢	$1	0xea43f3…
05-27 17:05:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x5b3367…
05-27 17:05:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$2	0xb8de1b…
05-27 14:01:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	No	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0xffa204…
05-27 10:20:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xcce685…
05-27 10:20:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x2e40de…
05-24 04:47:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24?	Yes	SELL	750	0¢	$1	0x2fd7eb…
05-22 10:16:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x37330c…
05-22 10:06:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0xfc777d…
05-22 10:05:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x967c95…
05-21 06:40:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24?	Yes	BUY	750	0¢	$2	0x11abda…
05-21 06:35:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x226c44…
05-21 06:31:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x43be4e…
05-21 06:31:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xc1b30e…
05-15 10:51:14	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xcb27c0…
05-03 12:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe22fd7…
04-30 11:26:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x26a7d3…
04-30 11:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x2c3885…
04-28 10:34:52	Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0x1af881…
04-28 10:18:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xce2a72…
04-28 10:18:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28?	No	BUY	95	1¢	$1	0x7a0ca7…
04-26 15:18:08	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	54	9¢	$5	0x89ec49…
04-26 15:16:38	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	SELL	75	2¢	$1	0x940e9b…
04-26 15:11:12	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xe135ac…
04-26 13:54:52	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xf3f2d8…
04-26 06:23:20	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0xf44891…
04-26 06:16:18	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x593716…
04-25 13:05:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0x1a23f4…
04-25 12:51:30	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	0¢	$1	0x578fcf…
04-24 19:00:14	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xf141b4…
04-24 15:16:20	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x8fe522…
04-24 15:15:36	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x849dd4…
04-24 15:15:10	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,000	0¢	$3	0xaa762d…
04-24 15:14:32	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1b53f4…
04-22 11:02:34	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	Yes	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0xa10690…
04-21 15:10:40	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x9ae32a…
04-21 08:54:36	bitcoin above 80k on april 21	Yes	BUY	286	1¢	$2	0x212f6e…
04-21 08:54:14	bitcoin above 74k on april 21	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xd46f54…
04-20 10:26:44	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 65 89	Yes	BUY	51	6¢	$3	0x164895…
04-20 09:50:40	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 65 89	Yes	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0xb24664…
04-19 18:12:32	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 90 114	Yes	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0xabb43d…
04-19 18:11:04	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	Yes	SELL	198	0¢	$0	0x0ad39c…
04-19 12:42:42	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	Yes	BUY	132	1¢	$1	0x9d291f…
04-18 18:47:12	ethereum above 2200 on april 19	No	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0xe0ea60…
04-18 18:45:42	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xcd4a55…
04-18 12:32:04	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be less than 10m	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x4b44b6…
04-18 11:46:04	ethereum above 2300 on april 18	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x82bf2d…
04-18 11:45:50	ethereum above 2300 on april 18	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x858504…
04-18 11:43:10	ethereum above 2200 on april 18	No	BUY	518	0¢	$2	0xda3bb4…
04-18 11:41:58	bitcoin above 74k on april 18	No	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x4ace3a…
04-18 04:31:22	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	53	6¢	$3	0xd8cdbb…
04-18 04:25:24	Will the People's Bank of China decrease rates in April?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x95c660…
04-18 04:25:12	Will the People's Bank of China increase rates in April?	Yes	BUY	87	1¢	$1	0x052ed4…
04-18 04:11:48	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xa36d7f…
04-17 14:30:04	bitcoin above 78k on april 17	Yes	SELL	23	23¢	$5	0x411e82…
04-17 14:10:52	will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be greater than 20m	Yes	BUY	95	1¢	$1	0x41ed94…
04-17 14:04:28	bitcoin above 80k on april 17	Yes	SELL	464	1¢	$4	0xb4629b…
04-17 09:14:46	bitcoin above 80k on april 17	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xfbd497…
04-17 09:14:32	bitcoin above 78k on april 17	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x64515d…
04-16 10:07:46	bitcoin above 78k on april 16	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x9e2c13…
04-15 16:22:28	bitcoin above 78k on april 16	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xcc8f9f…
04-15 16:17:14	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 65 89	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x286d8f…
04-15 15:36:44	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 65 89	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x26d285…
04-12 07:52:03	will you me tuscany opening weekend box office be between 9m and 10m	Yes	BUY	64	2¢	$1	0xc9d791…
04-11 13:58:33	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 90 114	Yes	BUY	65	2¢	$1	0x71bae5…
04-11 13:57:49	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 90 114	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xcf6a83…
04-10 15:19:55	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 115 139	Yes	BUY	109	1¢	$1	0x01ac6a…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	160	$24.9K	6,881	06-06 19:59
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	156	$27.4K	11,107	04-16 21:51
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	140	$292.8K	6,955	06-06 04:57
Rundown-Regard 0x39aa…583c	112	$98.3K	2,175	06-05 07:06
Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81	111	$3.78K	1,751	03-27 09:14
Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f	102	$325.0K	7,197	05-25 05:45
Intelligent-Length 0xdb5a…3965	92	$1.07M	11,344	06-05 15:58
Crooked-Noir 0x4ee2…46e1	89	$348.3K	16,407	06-06 21:25