Grimy-Vestment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

Trades

161

lifetime

Volume

$4.42K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 06-12 20:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

84% 75% +$36

Other

11% — —

Crypto

5% 15% $-27

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	3	$537	283	283	+0	open	—	04-25 19:06
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	2	$434	237	237	+0	open	—	04-25 19:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	2	$405	208	208	+0	No	+$5	05-08 20:21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$274	172	172	+0	No	+$34	04-29 08:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$244	140	140	+0	open	—	05-17 20:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$241	271	271	+0	open	—	05-22 22:21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	3	$239	128	128	+0	open	—	04-29 08:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	2	$211	116	116	+0	open	—	04-27 16:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$205	108	108	+0	open	—	05-10 21:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$202	103	103	+0	No	+$2	05-10 21:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	05-02 21:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	4	$152	90	90	+0	open	—	05-25 06:21
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	9	$125	276	276	+0	No	$-5	05-08 20:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	3	$110	117	0	+117	Down	+$7	05-05 21:19
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	1	$100	119	0	+119	open	—	04-25 19:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	2	$90	53	53	+0	open	—	04-25 19:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	2	$75	44	44	+0	open	—	04-23 16:40
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	2	$59	35	35	+0	open	—	04-23 11:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	7	$58	856	36	+821	open	—	05-25 22:15
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$58	128	128	+0	open	—	04-21 20:39
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	13	$58	274	167	+108	open	—	05-12 20:46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$46	29	29	+0	open	—	05-25 06:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	6	$34	139	39	+100	Down	$-8	05-06 18:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$29	22	22	+0	open	—	05-07 21:58
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	4	$27	61	61	+0	open	—	04-20 18:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	3	$25	31	0	+31	Down	$-3	05-05 21:28
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	05-05 20:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$18	13	13	+0	open	—	05-21 21:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$16	351	305	+45	open	—	05-07 21:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	5	$14	35	0	+35	Down	$-14	05-05 21:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 20:58:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xdb93be…
06-12 20:56:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xf4f98e…
05-25 22:15:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	385	1¢	$5	0xf0e7cf…
05-25 06:24:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0x9013d8…
05-25 06:21:47	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	89¢	$26	0x7233e5…
05-25 06:21:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	90	91¢	$82	0x458299…
05-23 23:15:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x1a1517…
05-23 23:14:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x77be63…
05-23 19:34:15	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x07099f…
05-23 19:32:49	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0xc453aa…
05-23 19:31:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x1d2687…
05-23 19:29:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x5cc1ea…
05-23 14:11:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xe39ccb…
05-23 10:16:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	36	62¢	$22	0x587c22…
05-22 22:34:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x2f186d…
05-22 22:21:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0xa8515b…
05-21 21:06:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	81¢	$10	0x093c44…
05-21 21:06:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xa62eff…
05-21 17:21:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x633e48…
05-17 20:27:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0xdd60eb…
05-12 20:46:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x082e73…
05-12 10:46:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x23a737…
05-11 08:13:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x7bf5b2…
05-10 21:32:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x365914…
05-10 21:31:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	SELL	108	98¢	$105	0x46059d…
05-10 17:44:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x24902a…
05-10 17:43:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	98	7¢	$7	0x494b07…
05-10 11:23:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xa3de8d…
05-10 11:23:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x540057…
05-09 18:23:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x750eda…
05-09 18:18:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x91786f…
05-09 10:20:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0cb513…
05-08 20:21:55	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0x937a44…
05-08 20:21:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	208	99¢	$205	0xa0e950…
05-07 22:30:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x506496…
05-07 22:26:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xae3b6e…
05-07 22:04:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x226239…
05-07 22:04:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x5b0b17…
05-07 21:58:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	12	85¢	$11	0xc9dae4…
05-07 21:37:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0x06d026…
05-07 21:33:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	36	10¢	$3	0x95854b…
05-07 21:32:45	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	16¢	$1	0x86eea7…
05-07 21:32:37	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	18	16¢	$3	0xadfea4…
05-07 21:31:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x0148c4…
05-07 21:31:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	305	2¢	$6	0x685dd5…
05-07 21:26:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	69	29¢	$20	0x9c68ea…
05-07 21:26:13	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	9	25¢	$2	0x0c605a…
05-07 17:24:42	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe1699d…
05-07 17:23:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x48dc81…
05-07 17:22:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xc0d729…
05-07 17:22:09	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x68e184…
05-07 17:20:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x0541ec…
05-06 18:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xae0b7a…
05-06 18:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	19	38¢	$7	0x769def…
05-06 18:49:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xc1e12d…
05-06 18:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x4187b0…
05-06 18:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x0f60c5…
05-06 18:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xbb7575…
05-06 18:42:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x56f050…
05-06 18:41:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x4d7f4b…
05-06 18:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x0f750f…
05-06 18:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x7db607…
05-06 18:38:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x184e5f…
05-06 18:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x54b1db…
05-06 18:30:44	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xbab85a…
05-05 22:53:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x1ff07a…
05-05 22:53:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x1ecda8…
05-05 22:53:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x789e1a…
05-05 21:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb69151…
05-05 21:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xdfc101…
05-05 21:36:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x82d69b…
05-05 21:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x615383…
05-05 21:32:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x1d0ba6…
05-05 21:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x69d149…
05-05 21:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x22d17c…
05-05 21:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x114818…
05-05 21:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x18293f…
05-05 21:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x202be1…
05-05 21:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x8a4186…
05-05 21:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x73ba10…
05-05 21:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x5d45da…
05-05 21:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x413ec3…
05-05 21:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x64373d…
05-05 21:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x49db84…
05-05 21:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xa29dd6…
05-05 21:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x93322d…
05-05 20:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xec0813…
05-05 20:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x7abae2…
05-05 20:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x9862b5…
05-05 20:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5da6be…
05-05 20:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xf3b48d…
05-05 20:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xe91a53…
05-05 20:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x0b03fa…
05-05 20:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x467270…
05-05 20:35:06	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x420d3c…
05-05 09:49:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	85	84¢	$72	0x2be256…
05-05 09:46:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x04fd2a…
05-05 09:46:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	58	49¢	$29	0xd5e503…
05-04 15:13:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	220	27¢	$58	0x79e240…
05-04 13:45:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	47¢	$95	0xa47579…