Vast-Arrangement — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$60

Unrealized P&L

-$84

Hit rate

38.3%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

106 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$23

$2.63K lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-03-29

last 09-22 14:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Politics

44% 25% -$137

Other

39% 36% -$114

Tech

17% 50% -$281

Crypto

1% 0% -$15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+1,000	$100	2¢	$16	-$84	05-05 12:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	10	$488	901	901	+0	No	+$38	05-23 22:02
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$436	240	240	+0	No	+$37	04-01 01:30
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	6	$343	1,700	0	+1,700	Yes	-$343	06-30 22:19
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$211	309	0	+309	Yes	-$211	04-07 22:15
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$133	0	2,889	-2,889	No	+$133	06-01 23:01
russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	2	$110	908	800	+108	No	-$89	08-10 16:51
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$100	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-05 12:26
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	3	$100	161	0	+161	No	+$61	06-17 02:04
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	4	$87	347	347	+0	No	+$27	03-31 19:40
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$81	47	47	+0	Yes	+$5	04-12 18:19
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	21	$77	533	533	+0	open	—	05-20 11:51
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$70	38	38	+0	Yes	+$0	04-27 13:57
cs2 g2 bb3 2026 04 02	2	$67	123	120	+3	G2	+$27	04-02 16:18
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$60	70	70	+0	Yes	$0	04-01 01:32
Will FaZe make a roster move before May?	5	$53	100	100	+0	Yes	-$47	04-12 16:52
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$50	179	0	+179	No	-$50	05-07 10:13
will trump say khamenei or khomeini during address to the nation	1	$41	100	0	+100	No	-$41	04-01 20:32
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	1	$20	576	0	+576	No	-$20	09-22 14:04
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	1	$16	433	0	+433	No	-$16	06-19 19:01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1?	5	$15	150	0	+150	No	-$15	04-24 20:20
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	12	$15	1,253	0	+1,253	No	-$15	08-05 23:10
cs2 furia mouz 2026 04 15	1	$10	40	0	+40	FURIA	-$10	04-15 22:34
cs2 g2 bb3 2026 04 02 map handicap away 1pt5	1	$10	30	0	+30	BetBoom Team	-$10	04-02 16:20
cs2 vit fal2 2026 04 15	1	$10	30	0	+30	Team Falcons	+$20	04-15 10:16
will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	1	$9	139	0	+139	Yes	-$9	04-01 16:14
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$8	319	0	+319	No	-$8	06-17 13:04
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$6	100	0	+100	No	-$6	08-07 18:24
Will Yabloko win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections?	2	$3	325	0	+325	No	-$3	08-11 17:33
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$3	38	0	+38	No	-$3	05-14 00:21
Will Yabloko win the next Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament elections?	2	$1	123	0	+123	No	-$1	08-11 17:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-22 14:04:45	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	576	3¢	$20	0x2b467b…
08-11 17:33:16	Will Yabloko win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x12db44…
08-11 17:31:28	Will Yabloko win the next Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0x4bf40c…
08-10 16:51:39	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	Yes	SELL	800	1¢	$10	0xb98aed…
08-07 20:43:43	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	Yes	BUY	908	11¢	$99	0xccea74…
08-07 18:27:55	Will Yabloko win the next Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf8b634…
08-07 18:25:42	Will Yabloko win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	BUY	225	0¢	$1	0x2eee91…
08-07 18:24:28	Will Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x355a25…
08-07 18:24:00	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xdd9a33…
08-07 18:24:00	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	95	6¢	$6	0xbe5166…
08-05 23:10:15	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x8117ff…
08-05 23:10:15	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	79	0¢	$0	0x0521be…
08-05 15:55:50	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	129	0¢	$1	0xf43f25…
08-05 15:54:53	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x8e9f2b…
08-05 15:54:44	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	203	0¢	$1	0xc6fd32…
08-05 15:54:42	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	203	0¢	$1	0x2b2f5f…
08-05 15:54:41	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	51	0¢	$0	0xab0a04…
08-05 15:54:41	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	237	0¢	$1	0x92d3a1…
08-05 15:54:41	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x9223aa…
08-05 15:54:41	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x6b6804…
08-05 14:36:15	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xaa3434…
06-30 22:19:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	No	BUY	235	12¢	$27	0xcd17ee…
06-30 21:56:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	No	BUY	47	12¢	$5	0x739b0f…
06-30 21:54:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	No	BUY	318	12¢	$37	0xcaaed7…
06-24 17:03:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	No	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0xf08860…
06-24 17:00:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	No	BUY	60	13¢	$8	0x370b23…
06-24 16:23:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	No	BUY	1,000	26¢	$260	0xc0d8c7…
06-19 19:01:47	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	433	4¢	$16	0x6c95e0…
06-17 13:04:22	Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x879213…
06-17 13:04:11	Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	310	2¢	$8	0xd4cd1b…
06-17 02:04:39	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	143	62¢	$89	0x295c02…
06-17 01:09:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x1159bc…
06-17 01:09:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xb0961f…
06-01 23:01:24	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	2,889	5¢	$133	0x8e72ee…
05-23 22:02:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	105	20¢	$21	0x4b8701…
05-23 21:51:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xd23d86…
05-23 21:46:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	474	21¢	$98	0x1d36b9…
05-23 20:35:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	474	19¢	$90	0x72be59…
05-23 19:47:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	165	11¢	$18	0xa567ad…
05-23 16:38:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	165	9¢	$15	0x906341…
05-23 16:37:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	73	91¢	$66	0xe92f99…
05-20 11:51:56	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	533	6¢	$30	0x2ac2de…
05-14 00:21:40	Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	38	7¢	$3	0x2eb8ee…
05-07 20:53:53	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	202	9¢	$18	0xb3b52a…
05-07 20:53:51	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0x67e29f…
05-07 20:53:35	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xecffee…
05-07 20:53:23	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x9a7c3e…
05-07 20:53:23	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x24ff30…
05-07 20:52:55	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x68985d…
05-07 20:52:36	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x0c7488…
05-07 20:52:18	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xb8cef3…
05-07 20:52:15	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xf36b13…
05-07 20:51:20	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xb584c6…
05-07 20:51:19	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x3c20a1…
05-07 20:51:10	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	9¢	$11	0x4a02d0…
05-07 20:50:47	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x76e048…
05-07 20:50:31	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x38cf31…
05-07 20:50:26	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x5f5275…
05-07 20:49:56	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	9¢	$10	0x1f0b57…
05-07 20:49:46	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xef0920…
05-07 20:49:46	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x622e58…
05-07 20:49:28	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0x9be6dc…
05-07 20:49:14	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xeca8fc…
05-07 10:13:33	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0x47d09f…
05-07 10:12:53	Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	253	4¢	$10	0x19bcee…
05-07 10:06:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	73	69¢	$50	0x12210c…
05-06 10:00:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	85	71¢	$61	0xacbc9a…
05-05 12:26:42	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x49ab4d…
04-27 13:57:36	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	38	92¢	$35	0x0bd20e…
04-26 11:35:36	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0xeef33b…
04-24 20:20:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x1de2ac…
04-24 20:19:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x7fd91e…
04-24 20:18:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0x5ed95a…
04-24 20:18:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x44f2a6…
04-24 20:18:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x2e64f6…
04-15 22:34:20	cs2 furia mouz 2026 04 15	MOUZ	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x3c3402…
04-15 10:16:30	cs2 vit fal2 2026 04 15	Team Falcons	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xaa207b…
04-12 18:19:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	47	91¢	$43	0x59dc75…
04-12 16:52:07	Will FaZe make a roster move before May?	No	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x99ba13…
04-12 16:16:15	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	47	81¢	$38	0x043fb2…
04-12 15:02:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x13dec8…
04-07 22:15:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	155	64¢	$100	0x47f673…
04-07 21:03:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	124	71¢	$88	0xe9eb7d…
04-07 21:03:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	16	71¢	$11	0xe2a4d9…
04-07 20:28:35	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0xe2d8ae…
04-06 14:49:23	Will FaZe make a roster move before May?	No	BUY	65	50¢	$32	0xd6c861…
04-06 14:44:47	Will FaZe make a roster move before May?	No	BUY	23	50¢	$12	0x8114d8…
04-06 14:34:29	Will FaZe make a roster move before May?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3f2adc…
04-06 01:29:51	Will FaZe make a roster move before May?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x6668c9…
04-02 16:20:01	cs2 g2 bb3 2026 04 02 map handicap away 1pt5	G2	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x4b71bb…
04-02 16:18:39	cs2 g2 bb3 2026 04 02	BetBoom Team	SELL	120	39¢	$47	0x7ef096…
04-02 15:56:47	cs2 g2 bb3 2026 04 02	BetBoom Team	BUY	123	16¢	$20	0xe1ed19…
04-01 20:32:45	will trump say khamenei or khomeini during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xd48da1…
04-01 16:14:19	will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	No	BUY	139	6¢	$9	0xf6e77c…
04-01 01:32:29	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	70	43¢	$30	0x71afb2…
04-01 01:30:59	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	240	99¢	$237	0x83888b…
03-31 19:42:05	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0xa30afb…
03-31 19:40:37	Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	347	16¢	$57	0x2f39e4…
03-31 00:12:01	Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x3d867a…
03-30 20:37:33	Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	8¢	$10	0x017e76…