Lively-Claim — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

13.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$11.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$168

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 05-12 12:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

92% 100% +$12

Politics

6% 0% $-6

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	03-03 12:06
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	10	$588	600	600	+0	Yes	$-6	02-28 07:27
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	3	$586	315	315	+0	open	—	03-03 09:05
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	19	$88	1,019	1,231	-212	Down	+$12	05-12 12:08
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$58	30	30	+0	open	—	03-03 12:07
eth updown 15m 1769652900	2	$40	21	21	+0	open	—	01-29 02:28
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	1	$29	30	0	+30	open	—	03-03 12:16
infinex fdv above 600m one day after launch 441 573 316 497	1	$24	25	0	+25	open	—	01-29 02:29
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 4 546	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-03 12:14
xrp updown 15m 1769649300	1	$20	24	0	+24	open	—	01-29 01:24
sol updown 15m 1769649300	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	01-29 01:24
eth updown 15m 1769649300	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	01-29 01:24
will bitcoin dip to 64k february 2 8	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	02-04 01:21
sol updown 15m 1769648400	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	01-29 01:14
xrp updown 15m 1769648400	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	01-29 01:14
eth updown 15m 1769650200	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	01-29 01:44
eth updown 15m 1769648400	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	01-29 01:14
Moonbirds FDV above $600M one day after launch?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	01-29 02:29
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-03 13:55
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-03 12:37
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	2	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	03-03 12:07
btc updown 15m 1769649300	1	$15	15	0	+15	open	—	01-29 01:25
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	03-03 12:07
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	03-03 12:07
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	03-03 12:07
Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	2	$11	20	20	+0	open	—	05-12 12:08
will grok 4pt20 be released on february 9 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	02-04 01:22
will the next dutch government be vvd cda d66	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	02-04 01:22
will the total number of tsa passengers for february 3 be less than 2000000	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	02-04 01:23
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	01-29 02:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 12:08:38	Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x200766…
05-12 12:08:31	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	76	1¢	$1	0xb16d0f…
05-12 12:07:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x0bfd53…
05-12 12:07:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	200	1¢	$3	0x9008e1…
05-12 12:06:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	200	1¢	$3	0xab09c7…
05-12 12:06:49	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	200	1¢	$3	0xd5027f…
05-12 11:57:01	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	46	4¢	$2	0xcc193f…
05-12 11:46:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	400	2¢	$10	0xfae140…
05-12 11:08:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0x1ab30f…
05-12 10:50:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	12	3¢	$0	0x6e687d…
05-12 09:24:09	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	278	8¢	$22	0xaaeb08…
05-12 09:10:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	278	3¢	$8	0xf7efbe…
05-12 09:01:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	88	5¢	$4	0x66bdc3…
05-12 08:56:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0x9e337c…
05-12 08:31:17	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	81	11¢	$9	0x3c1006…
05-12 08:30:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	55	4¢	$2	0xb65faa…
05-12 08:29:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	55	5¢	$3	0x855941…
05-12 08:16:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xbbf5f8…
05-12 07:45:03	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xcb1a14…
05-12 07:35:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x2e60a1…
05-12 07:30:51	Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xa2b5b8…
03-03 13:55:43	Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x1a81c9…
03-03 12:37:57	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0xf4df35…
03-03 12:16:53	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xce2087…
03-03 12:14:59	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 4 546	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x2da5ee…
03-03 12:07:47	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x8d0162…
03-03 12:07:33	Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xa4aa03…
03-03 12:07:25	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xc8d5f7…
03-03 12:07:19	US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0xdd533f…
03-03 12:07:09	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x3d7f33…
03-03 12:06:29	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5,000	98¢	$4,925	0x4659d4…
03-03 12:03:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,930	0x490521…
03-03 09:05:15	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	No	SELL	39	92¢	$36	0x1f21e3…
03-03 09:04:31	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	No	SELL	276	93¢	$256	0x352895…
03-01 00:14:35	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	No	BUY	315	93¢	$293	0x121e25…
02-28 07:27:27	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	SELL	300	80¢	$240	0xf66e09…
02-27 18:04:31	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	BUY	300	82¢	$246	0x6324a2…
02-27 07:04:59	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	123	17¢	$21	0xeb6063…
02-27 06:41:34	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0xc1662d…
02-27 05:51:28	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x544cd7…
02-27 05:00:02	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	47	17¢	$8	0xe833aa…
02-27 04:21:00	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	118	17¢	$20	0xc3886d…
02-26 09:54:36	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	226	17¢	$38	0x5329ad…
02-26 09:30:28	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	26	17¢	$4	0x06cc2f…
02-26 09:23:32	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	47	17¢	$8	0xee0366…
02-24 23:49:10	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x2e3391…
02-04 01:24:02	US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x6d6d2c…
02-04 01:23:12	will the total number of tsa passengers for february 3 be less than 2000000	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xdbea12…
02-04 01:23:04	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x338d05…
02-04 01:22:26	will the next dutch government be vvd cda d66	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xc64048…
02-04 01:22:18	will grok 4pt20 be released on february 9 2026	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x7bb84f…
02-04 01:21:52	will bitcoin dip to 64k february 2 8	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x2d2479…
01-29 02:29:52	infinex fdv above 600m one day after launch 441 573 316 497	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x5d4e59…
01-29 02:29:20	Moonbirds FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4ae2f0…
01-29 02:28:42	eth updown 15m 1769652900	Up	SELL	21	98¢	$20	0xb910be…
01-29 02:27:22	eth updown 15m 1769652900	Up	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xea5559…
01-29 02:22:52	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x8c074b…
01-29 02:21:56	Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x987a3a…
01-29 02:21:44	Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4af1a1…
01-29 02:21:20	Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0745d2…
01-29 02:20:36	Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xc53a36…
01-29 01:44:38	eth updown 15m 1769650200	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xdebcf6…
01-29 01:25:34	btc updown 15m 1769649300	Down	BUY	15	96¢	$15	0x083007…
01-29 01:24:52	xrp updown 15m 1769649300	Down	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x6c1130…
01-29 01:24:38	sol updown 15m 1769649300	Down	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x021265…
01-29 01:24:24	eth updown 15m 1769649300	Down	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x4364dc…
01-29 01:14:30	eth updown 15m 1769648400	Down	BUY	21	98¢	$20	0xa82e6e…
01-29 01:14:20	sol updown 15m 1769648400	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe3d05c…
01-29 01:14:10	xrp updown 15m 1769648400	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x09c0fa…