Royal-Shovel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$72

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.93K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$117

Open exposure

$15

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-24 16:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

83% 98% +$68

Politics

12% 100% +$2

Tech

5% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No		+15	$15	100¢	$15	+$0	10-24 16:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	1	$210	210	+210	No	+$0	06-11 03:37
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	1	$208	210	+210	No	+$2	06-02 07:19
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$208	208	+208	No	+$0	05-31 07:17
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$206	208	+208	No	+$2	05-30 03:07
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	1	$205	205	+205	No	+$0	05-17 02:04
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	1	$205	206	+206	No	+$1	05-28 09:27
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	1	$205	205	+205	No	+$0	05-25 08:06
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$205	205	+205	No	+$0	05-19 08:10
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 440 459	1	$195	195	+195	No	+$0	01-11 07:29
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 440 459	1	$192	195	+195	No	+$4	01-08 02:42
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 340 359	1	$189	189	+189	No	+$0	01-03 07:33
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$166	166	+166	No	+$0	05-09 07:03
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$165	165	+165	No	+$0	05-13 08:44
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$165	165	+165	No	+$0	05-06 06:16
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	1	$163	205	+205	No	+$42	05-16 05:30
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$163	165	+165	No	+$2	05-04 06:31
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	1	$163	163	+163	No	+$0	04-28 06:44
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 160 179	1	$162	163	+163	No	+$1	04-22 08:36
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	1	$162	163	+163	Yes	+$1	04-30 07:29
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 360 379	1	$159	159	+159	No	+$0	04-06 11:21
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 180 199	1	$159	159	+159	No	+$0	04-12 07:12
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in April 2026?	1	$159	159	+159	No	+$0	04-13 08:32
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	1	$157	157	+157	No	+$0	04-02 06:53
elon musk of tweets march 2026 960 999	1	$155	155	+155	No	+$0	03-22 03:54
elon musk of tweets march 2026 1120 1159	1	$154	154	+154	No	+$0	03-26 07:08
elon musk of tweets march 9 march 11 0 39	1	$151	153	+153	No	+$2	03-10 01:57
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 40 64	1	$150	154	+154	No	+$4	03-18 07:32
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by march 13	1	$150	150	+150	No	+$0	03-13 07:20
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 0 39	1	$148	150	+150	No	+$2	02-15 07:30
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 340 359	1	$148	148	+148	No	+$1	02-12 07:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 16:04:57	Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x31bb4c…
09-11 10:11:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x1e0c66…
09-11 10:09:49	Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xcd3c39…
08-29 13:54:16	Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x85d7a2…
07-27 06:46:30	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x4fa0af…
06-11 03:37:33	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0xbe0fef…
06-02 07:19:20	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	210	99¢	$208	0xf9436c…
05-31 07:17:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	208	100¢	$208	0xc8a09b…
05-30 03:07:19	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	208	99¢	$206	0xc123ee…
05-28 09:27:56	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	206	100¢	$205	0xfa31e1…
05-25 08:06:53	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0xb1fc0d…
05-19 08:10:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0xef1c62…
05-17 02:04:37	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0xc11e56…
05-16 05:30:32	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	205	80¢	$163	0xe7dc2d…
05-13 09:07:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xfe120a…
05-13 08:44:36	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x093aae…
05-09 07:03:30	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	166	100¢	$166	0x264de3…
05-06 06:16:24	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x2343f7…
05-04 06:31:48	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	165	99¢	$163	0xe4524d…
04-30 07:29:22	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	163	100¢	$162	0x5bda5d…
04-28 06:44:16	Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	163	100¢	$163	0x8ecc00…
04-22 08:36:24	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 160 179	No	BUY	163	100¢	$162	0xca580d…
04-19 11:29:48	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 0 39	No	BUY	62	96¢	$59	0x6faab4…
04-19 11:23:46	donald trump of truth social posts april 14 april 21 140 159	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xdaa968…
04-13 08:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	159	100¢	$159	0xef9dcf…
04-12 07:12:01	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 180 199	No	BUY	159	100¢	$159	0xa272d7…
04-06 11:21:53	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 360 379	No	BUY	159	100¢	$159	0xef7d25…
04-02 06:53:03	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	No	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0x054c7c…
03-30 08:45:16	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xcb96ae…
03-30 08:44:58	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	131	100¢	$130	0xcc509d…
03-26 07:08:59	will openai have the best ai model for math on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbffd06…
03-26 07:08:51	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1120 1159	No	BUY	154	100¢	$154	0x535c77…
03-22 03:54:25	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x06f46d…
03-22 03:54:19	elon musk of tweets march 2026 960 999	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0x44a2ec…
03-18 07:32:05	elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 40 64	No	BUY	154	98¢	$150	0xe7ad4f…
03-16 11:15:25	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x1c74c2…
03-16 11:15:19	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xffab56…
03-13 07:21:09	will anthropic have the 2 ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0x58b7a8…
03-13 07:21:01	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x21c380…
03-13 07:20:55	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by march 13	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xe1f597…
03-10 01:57:03	elon musk of tweets march 9 march 11 0 39	No	BUY	153	98¢	$151	0x15fe68…
03-04 09:34:05	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 20 39	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xbcb7d6…
02-28 09:46:49	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xb50354…
02-28 09:46:39	will elon musks net worth be between 660b and 670b on february 28	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf42cee…
02-28 09:46:27	will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x69ac38…
02-28 09:46:21	will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xee89dc…
02-28 09:46:13	will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb1edb0…
02-28 09:44:59	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	58	99¢	$58	0xe63dbb…
02-15 07:30:49	elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 0 39	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x173e31…
02-12 07:26:39	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 340 359	No	BUY	148	100¢	$148	0xc6830f…
02-05 02:55:23	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 160 179	No	BUY	148	100¢	$148	0x1de46f…
02-02 07:06:32	elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 0 39	No	BUY	148	100¢	$147	0xb67516…
01-30 09:50:36	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0x57c265…
01-26 09:54:07	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	147	99¢	$146	0xbc0961…
01-24 11:02:22	elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 260 279	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0xe731d0…
01-17 02:03:32	elon musk of tweets january 2026 1280 1319	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x10f4dd…
01-11 07:29:22	elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 440 459	No	BUY	195	100¢	$195	0x350b6c…
01-08 02:42:43	elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 440 459	No	BUY	195	98¢	$192	0x353594…
01-03 07:33:59	elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 340 359	No	BUY	189	100¢	$189	0x9cc3d0…