Reflecting-Arrest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

5.8%

Resolved

Trades

321

lifetime

Volume

$3.93K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 06-10 10:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

46% 33% $-1

Crypto

38% 20% $-3

Politics

10% — —

Pop-Culture

5% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx opens up or down on february 13 2026	2	$370	290	290	+0	open	—	02-13 01:59
will there be 10 12 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	2	$342	200	200	+0	open	—	01-26 15:58
btc updown 15m 1769485500	3	$341	173	173	+0	open	—	01-27 03:59
btc updown 15m 1769484600	2	$341	171	171	+0	open	—	01-27 03:45
btc updown 15m 1769483700	4	$340	172	170	+2	open	—	01-27 03:30
btc updown 15m 1769488200	2	$324	174	173	+0	open	—	01-27 04:42
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$320	200	200	+0	open	—	01-26 15:18
spx opens up or down on february 12 2026	2	$282	200	200	+0	open	—	02-12 03:30
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	4	$213	144	144	+0	open	—	02-17 01:06
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$186	200	200	+0	open	—	01-26 12:55
will bangladesh jamaat e islami win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	2	$100	277	277	+0	open	—	02-12 02:54
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	2	$87	70	70	+0	open	—	01-26 06:21
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$65	205	205	+0	open	—	01-26 12:04
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	2	$56	67	67	+0	open	—	02-15 00:00
cl up or down on march 12 2026	2	$43	23	23	+0	open	—	03-13 00:04
spx opens up or down on march 13 2026	5	$42	28	28	+0	open	—	03-13 12:50
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	2	$27	20	20	+0	No	$-1	03-14 01:54
cl up or down on march 10 2026	3	$20	13	13	+0	open	—	03-11 02:39
ethereum up or down on february 3	2	$15	31	0	+31	open	—	02-03 03:55
highest temperature in shanghai on march 13 2026 13c	2	$15	17	14	+3	open	—	03-13 00:04
btc updown 15m 1769487300	3	$14	15	2	+13	open	—	01-27 04:28
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	3	$14	13	9	+3	open	—	03-27 18:07
will global temperature increase by more than 1pt24c in february 2026	4	$14	12	12	+0	open	—	02-27 23:54
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes 363	3	$13	120	20	+100	open	—	01-25 01:33
spx opens up or down on february 5 2026	4	$12	12	6	+6	open	—	02-05 14:59
spx opens up or down on february 6 2026	4	$12	12	6	+6	open	—	02-06 15:25
spx opens up or down on march 18 2026	2	$9	6	6	+0	open	—	03-18 13:20
ndx up or down on march 18 2026	4	$8	8	7	+1	open	—	03-18 12:29
tsla up or down on february 9 2026	4	$8	12	6	+6	open	—	02-09 11:22
solana up or down on february 7	4	$8	12	4	+8	open	—	02-07 13:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 10:11:52	solana up or down on june 10 2026	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf1edec…
06-10 10:11:39	ethereum up or down on june 10 2026	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x3b1d4d…
06-10 10:10:57	wti up or down on june 10 2026	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x26b6f0…
06-10 10:10:33	spy up or down on june 10 2026	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe5edeb…
06-05 14:30:24	googl up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xaa96af…
05-27 11:48:21	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x7afbac…
05-27 11:46:31	Ethereum Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x7fdaeb…
05-17 14:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17?	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x85bf12…
05-17 02:30:53	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x32c91e…
05-17 02:30:31	Solana Up or Down on May 17?	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x3344f4…
05-17 02:29:15	Ethereum Up or Down on May 17?	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xfb8914…
05-15 05:33:25	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xeeb607…
05-15 05:33:11	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x58540d…
05-15 05:32:09	Ethereum Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x5eb756…
05-15 05:29:16	XRP Up or Down on May 15?	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x12ac29…
05-10 01:19:19	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x196d87…
05-10 01:19:01	XRP Up or Down on May 10?	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x274210…
05-07 23:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x95e282…
05-07 23:57:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x2a164b…
05-06 06:18:36	Ethereum Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x3d8340…
05-06 06:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf8c7f9…
05-04 13:00:34	XRP Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xbadcb0…
05-03 03:59:50	Ethereum Up or Down on May 3?	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x5d82a4…
05-03 03:59:38	XRP Up or Down on May 3?	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x940cc4…
04-29 01:30:32	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x57ca79…
04-29 01:25:44	Solana Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7be404…
04-17 12:59:46	ethereum up or down on april 17 2026	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x421e9d…
04-17 12:53:54	spx up or down on april 17 2026	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x75b4d3…
04-11 15:26:49	solana up or down on april 11 2026	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x69ec86…
04-11 15:25:19	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x4a67da…
04-09 23:26:31	Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xdfca2d…
04-09 15:13:01	ndx up or down on april 9 2026	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x0bf38c…
04-09 15:11:31	bitcoin up or down on april 9 2026	Down	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x4f0656…
04-09 11:53:55	spx opens up or down on april 9 2026	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc59a07…
04-09 05:30:09	spx opens up or down on april 9 2026	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x0562d8…
04-09 05:29:03	bitcoin up or down on april 9 2026	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x30cc6f…
04-08 12:15:07	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xc010d0…
04-07 23:00:39	nik up or down on april 8 2026	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x721edd…
04-07 06:00:45	xauusd up or down on april 7 2026	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x58bca2…
04-06 14:00:55	ndx up or down on april 6 2026	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xfd99a8…
04-06 14:00:51	ndx up or down on april 6 2026	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x68af1d…
04-06 14:00:43	ndx up or down on april 6 2026	Down	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0xe804b2…
04-06 07:35:05	ethereum up or down on april 6 2026	Down	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x48502f…
04-06 00:25:27	ndx up or down on april 6 2026	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x229534…
04-06 00:23:49	ethereum up or down on april 6 2026	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x542ac6…
04-04 23:38:21	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 6 12	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x67d56e…
04-04 14:31:35	ethereum up or down on april 4 2026	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x284556…
04-04 13:59:35	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 5 2026 27c	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x0bfe29…
04-04 03:19:43	nvda close above 180 on april 6 2026	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xcf9805…
04-04 03:13:45	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 5 2026 28c	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x1eeb9a…
04-04 03:13:01	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 4 2026 27c	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xae70a3…
04-02 23:35:15	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xdcc9b6…
04-02 19:28:29	ndx up or down on april 2 2026	Up	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xd2b783…
04-02 19:28:29	ndx up or down on april 2 2026	Up	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x7357a0…
04-02 14:59:55	ndx up or down on april 2 2026	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xbda504…
04-02 13:42:21	bitcoin up or down on april 2 2026	Up	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0x482386…
04-02 13:12:59	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 3 2026 29c	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xc5cf58…
04-02 13:12:47	highest temperature in shenzhen on april 3 2026 27c	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x878876…
04-01 12:41:21	spx up or down on april 1 2026	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xdb86c4…
04-01 04:16:23	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 1?	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x2a5c15…
04-01 04:12:37	ndx up or down on april 1 2026	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xcaefda…
04-01 04:10:57	spx up or down on april 1 2026	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x049614…
03-31 14:41:19	solana up or down on march 31 2026	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd1bbc0…
03-31 14:25:23	xrp up or down on march 31 2026	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x5dbc8d…
03-31 14:22:57	spx up or down on march 31 2026	Down	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x106998…
03-31 14:09:17	bitcoin up or down on march 31 2026	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x1a419f…
03-31 10:51:07	pltr up or down on march 31 2026	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf7522f…
03-31 10:42:37	spx up or down on march 31 2026	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x597ce4…
03-31 10:26:23	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xbd7df7…
03-31 10:25:41	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x7d817e…
03-31 10:24:59	ndx up or down on march 31 2026	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xa5f93c…
03-31 08:02:47	will nvda dip to 152 in march	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb78338…
03-31 08:02:11	will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 31	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xffb520…
03-31 07:57:59	ethereum up or down on march 31 2026	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x63e223…
03-31 07:54:17	xagusd up or down on march 31 2026	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xbe34c1…
03-30 14:55:07	rut up or down on march 30 2026	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x8f4605…
03-30 14:53:39	ndx up or down on march 30 2026	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x568f8e…
03-30 14:11:37	ndx up or down on march 30 2026	Down	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x27bf22…
03-30 13:50:15	spx up or down on march 30 2026	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x24b9dd…
03-30 13:49:21	tsla close above 370 on march 30 2026	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xfbdfd1…
03-30 13:47:31	ndx up or down on march 30 2026	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x90101d…
03-29 10:41:38	bitcoin up or down on march 29 2026	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x905685…
03-29 01:42:36	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd7f0c1…
03-28 13:27:43	xrp up or down on march 28 2026	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xbdb3ad…
03-28 00:38:03	highest temperature in shenzhen on march 28 2026 26c	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x6310f8…
03-28 00:30:15	highest temperature in shenzhen on march 29 2026 29c	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x70fc71…
03-28 00:21:55	btc updown 4h 1774656000	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xf428f4…
03-28 00:17:09	btc updown 4h 1774656000	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x21f5b3…
03-27 18:44:11	nflx up or down on march 27 2026	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xed1266…
03-27 18:07:57	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x757a0e…
03-27 17:55:53	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	No	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0xba7b56…
03-27 17:55:35	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xce8383…
03-27 15:31:47	bitcoin above 66k on march 27	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x4c3a0c…
03-27 15:02:05	will bitcoin dip to 64k on march 27	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xe30a24…
03-27 11:39:11	ndx up or down on march 27 2026	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xc933fc…
03-27 11:38:55	spx up or down on march 27 2026	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x261fa6…
03-26 14:07:59	highest temperature in shanghai on march 27 2026 16c	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x2e149d…
03-26 14:07:53	highest temperature in shanghai on march 27 2026 15c	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xfff544…
03-26 14:06:39	ndx up or down on march 26 2026	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb23e76…
03-24 12:07:49	spx opens up or down on march 24 2026	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xeab18d…