Reflecting-Arrest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

27.0%

Resolved

257

Trades

377

lifetime

Volume

$4.01K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 10-25 02:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 112 days

Categories

Other

46% 54% -$5

Crypto

38% 59% -$7

Politics

10% 62% +$1

Pop-Culture

5% 0% -$2

Tech

1% 50% +$0

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+5	$2	31¢	$1	-$1	08-07 11:47
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+2	$1	68¢	$1	+$0	10-09 14:50
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	+1	$1	66¢	$1	$0	09-14 13:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx opens up or down on february 13 2026	2	$370	290	290	+0	Up	-$7	02-13 01:59
will there be 10 12 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	2	$342	200	200	+0	Yes	-$2	01-26 15:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 03:45 UTC	3	$341	173	173	+0	Down	-$2	01-27 03:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 03:30 UTC	2	$341	171	171	+0	Up	+$2	01-27 03:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 03:15 UTC	4	$340	172	170	+2	Up	$0	01-27 03:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 04:30 UTC	2	$324	174	173	+0	Down	+$9	01-27 04:42
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$320	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	01-26 15:18
spx opens up or down on february 12 2026	2	$282	200	200	+0	Up	-$2	02-12 03:30
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	4	$213	144	144	+0	No	-$1	02-17 01:06
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$186	200	200	+0	Yes	-$2	01-26 12:55
will bangladesh jamaat e islami win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	2	$100	277	277	+0	No	+$0	02-12 02:54
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	2	$87	70	70	+0	No	+$0	01-26 06:21
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$65	205	205	+0	No	+$0	01-26 12:04
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	2	$56	67	67	+0	No	+$0	02-15 00:00
cl up or down on march 12 2026	2	$43	23	23	+0	Up	+$3	03-13 00:04
spx opens up or down on march 13 2026	5	$42	28	28	+0	Up	+$2	03-13 12:50
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	2	$27	20	20	+0	No	-$1	03-14 01:54
cl up or down on march 10 2026	3	$20	13	13	+0	Down	$0	03-11 02:39
ethereum up or down on february 3	2	$15	31	0	+31	Down	-$1	02-03 03:55
highest temperature in shanghai on march 13 2026 13c	2	$15	17	14	+3	Yes	-$5	03-13 00:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 04:15 UTC	3	$14	15	2	+13	Up	-$12	01-27 04:28
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	3	$14	13	9	+3	Yes	-$7	03-27 18:07
will global temperature increase by more than 1pt24c in february 2026	4	$14	12	12	+0	No	+$0	02-27 23:54
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes 363	3	$13	120	20	+100	No	-$4	01-25 01:33
spx opens up or down on february 5 2026	4	$12	12	6	+6	Down	$0	02-05 14:59
spx opens up or down on february 6 2026	4	$12	12	6	+6	Up	+$0	02-06 15:25
spx opens up or down on march 18 2026	2	$9	6	6	+0	Down	+$3	03-18 13:20
ndx up or down on march 18 2026	4	$8	8	7	+1	Down	-$2	03-18 12:29
tsla up or down on february 9 2026	4	$8	12	6	+6	Up	+$3	02-09 11:22
solana up or down on february 7	4	$8	12	4	+8	Up	+$2	02-07 13:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 02:36:57	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x920b55…
10-25 02:36:44	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x41765c…
10-25 02:33:35	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x75351f…
10-09 14:50:55	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xb6d002…
10-09 14:50:45	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x90a60c…
10-09 14:50:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xef5c12…
10-05 08:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0b4273…
10-05 01:36:26	solana up or down on october 5 2026	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x5983a7…
10-03 12:12:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x4ad289…
10-03 12:12:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xbc54fb…
10-03 12:10:50	Solana Up or Down on October 3?	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x96771a…
09-27 15:00:08	solana up or down on september 27 2026	Up	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xdddc6a…
09-27 03:07:24	solana up or down on september 27 2026	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x851209…
09-27 03:07:05	ethereum up or down on september 27 2026	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xbafc33…
09-26 11:02:26	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x90fb3f…
09-26 11:02:00	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x2d74e9…
09-26 11:01:17	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 28?	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x6fcb79…
09-26 11:00:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x8ec7b7…
09-14 13:25:37	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x9a63a3…
09-14 13:24:01	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x35654a…
09-14 13:23:07	Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xf65551…
09-14 13:21:58	Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on September 14?	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xadc9e0…
09-02 00:26:54	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x8a8b81…
09-02 00:26:18	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x714085…
08-31 01:55:54	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xa7bbc8…
08-31 01:55:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xc1a4ce…
08-31 01:55:01	spx up or down on august 31 2026	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x71e6f8…
08-31 01:54:25	bitcoin up or down on august 31 2026	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf3a194…
08-10 14:11:06	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x9c51c3…
08-10 14:10:34	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 11?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xc2e6b5…
08-10 14:09:15	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xfcd0be…
08-10 14:08:42	Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x2525cc…
08-09 13:19:55	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 10?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x284912…
08-09 13:19:49	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7d7c86…
08-09 13:19:42	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 10?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x796c9e…
08-09 13:18:48	trump approval up or down this week 1786098036073	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3a1b63…
08-07 11:47:33	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x7ba42f…
08-07 11:44:34	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x20cee5…
08-07 11:44:04	Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xf83dbd…
07-26 03:44:49	spx opens up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xd30c4d…
07-12 14:03:25	spx up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x1a2634…
07-12 14:02:55	ethereum up or down on july 12 2026	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x5b99a0…
07-11 09:35:56	bitcoin up or down on july 11 2026	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x17e6a9…
07-11 09:34:55	solana up or down on july 11 2026	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xebc117…
07-05 09:33:32	ethereum up or down on july 5 2026	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x7c1223…
07-05 09:32:59	spx opens up or down on july 6 2026	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xe99538…
07-05 09:32:05	bnb up or down on july 5 2026	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x5627f1…
07-05 09:31:20	bitcoin up or down on july 5 2026	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x8d8e66…
07-05 09:28:04	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x135a43…
07-04 03:26:47	solana up or down on july 4 2026	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb25742…
06-13 06:39:33	spy up or down on june 15 2026	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x22f3c9…
06-10 10:13:37	Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7d52fe…
06-10 10:11:52	solana up or down on june 10 2026	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf1edec…
06-10 10:11:39	ethereum up or down on june 10 2026	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x3b1d4d…
06-10 10:10:57	wti up or down on june 10 2026	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x26b6f0…
06-10 10:10:33	spy up or down on june 10 2026	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe5edeb…
06-05 14:30:24	googl up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xaa96af…
05-27 11:48:21	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x7afbac…
05-27 11:47:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0x33a689…
05-27 11:46:31	Ethereum Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x7fdaeb…
05-17 14:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17?	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x85bf12…
05-17 02:30:53	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x32c91e…
05-17 02:30:31	Solana Up or Down on May 17?	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x3344f4…
05-17 02:29:15	Ethereum Up or Down on May 17?	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xfb8914…
05-15 05:33:25	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xeeb607…
05-15 05:33:11	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x58540d…
05-15 05:32:09	Ethereum Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x5eb756…
05-15 05:29:16	XRP Up or Down on May 15?	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x12ac29…
05-15 05:28:57	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x25a60a…
05-15 05:28:45	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x669b27…
05-10 01:19:19	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x196d87…
05-10 01:19:01	XRP Up or Down on May 10?	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x274210…
05-07 23:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x95e282…
05-07 23:57:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x2a164b…
05-06 06:18:36	Ethereum Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x3d8340…
05-06 06:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf8c7f9…
05-04 13:00:34	XRP Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xbadcb0…
05-03 03:59:50	Ethereum Up or Down on May 3?	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x5d82a4…
05-03 03:59:38	XRP Up or Down on May 3?	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x940cc4…
04-29 01:30:32	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x57ca79…
04-29 01:25:44	Solana Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7be404…
04-28 14:55:28	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x8e0f81…
04-17 12:59:46	ethereum up or down on april 17 2026	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x421e9d…
04-17 12:53:54	spx up or down on april 17 2026	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x75b4d3…
04-11 15:26:49	solana up or down on april 11 2026	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x69ec86…
04-11 15:25:19	will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x4a67da…
04-09 23:26:31	Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xdfca2d…
04-09 15:13:01	ndx up or down on april 9 2026	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x0bf38c…
04-09 15:11:31	bitcoin up or down on april 9 2026	Down	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x4f0656…
04-09 11:53:55	spx opens up or down on april 9 2026	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc59a07…
04-09 05:30:09	spx opens up or down on april 9 2026	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x0562d8…
04-09 05:29:03	bitcoin up or down on april 9 2026	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x30cc6f…
04-08 12:15:07	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xc010d0…
04-07 23:00:39	nik up or down on april 8 2026	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x721edd…
04-07 06:00:45	xauusd up or down on april 7 2026	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x58bca2…
04-06 14:00:55	ndx up or down on april 6 2026	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xfd99a8…
04-06 14:00:51	ndx up or down on april 6 2026	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x68af1d…
04-06 14:00:43	ndx up or down on april 6 2026	Down	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0xe804b2…
04-06 07:35:05	ethereum up or down on april 6 2026	Down	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x48502f…
04-06 00:25:27	ndx up or down on april 6 2026	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x229534…