Simple-Occurrence — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$236

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.9%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

182

870 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.25K

$12.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 11-05 10:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Other

55% 33% -$738

Politics

29% 60% +$106

Crypto

16% 40% +$280

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	6	$1.9K	1,022	1,022	+0	No	+$17	05-26 16:50
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4?	10	$1.7K	1,038	1,038	+0	Yes	+$335	06-04 16:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	8	$842	466	466	+0	No	+$22	06-04 10:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	3	$824	529	529	+0	No	+$179	06-02 15:57
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 10?	8	$800	423	423	+0	Yes	+$39	05-10 18:33
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24?	4	$281	145	145	+0	Yes	+$8	06-24 11:36
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25?	7	$245	140	108	+32	No	+$3	06-25 08:10
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13?	2	$207	110	110	+0	No	+$11	06-13 08:31
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 8?	8	$203	295	0	+295	Yes	+$92	05-08 13:35
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22?	10	$201	109	109	+0	No	+$5	06-22 15:31
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23?	6	$154	100	100	+0	Yes	-$8	06-23 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 10?	2	$138	71	71	+0	No	+$4	05-10 18:33
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10?	6	$129	230	0	+230	No	-$129	05-10 16:33
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9?	14	$125	105	105	+0	Yes	-$3	06-09 12:01
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21?	4	$123	66	66	+0	No	+$6	06-21 16:36
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15?	3	$118	99	99	+0	Yes	+$21	06-15 13:29
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	2	$111	265	0	+265	Yes	-$111	06-04 01:18
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25?	2	$103	112	0	+112	No	$0	06-25 03:53
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8?	1	$99	100	0	+100	No	+$1	06-07 14:39
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?	7	$98	119	119	+0	Yes	-$52	05-11 16:45
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 18?	1	$94	100	0	+100	Yes	+$6	05-17 17:35
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14?	16	$84	300	300	-0	No	-$36	06-13 16:42
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on November 1?	3	$78	59	59	+0	No	-$4	11-01 09:36
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22?	9	$77	56	56	+0	Yes	-$2	06-22 16:46
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 12?	8	$75	53	53	+0	No	-$7	05-12 20:13
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on October 31?	2	$74	69	14	+54	No	+$7	10-30 11:43
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	4	$68	40	40	+0	Yes	+$8	10-30 19:16
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 9?	22	$64	107	107	+0	No	+$22	06-09 11:34
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5?	3	$59	100	22	+78	No	+$60	06-05 10:08
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 8?	31	$58	1,239	0	+1,239	No	-$58	05-08 22:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 10:16:22	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x38ef55…
11-01 20:33:24	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	27	40¢	$11	0x4de971…
11-01 18:52:21	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on November 1?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0xa09aeb…
11-01 17:34:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xd24ef0…
11-01 17:33:58	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x2574ff…
11-01 17:32:42	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x506dd8…
11-01 17:32:04	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xc3914e…
11-01 17:22:30	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on November 1?	Yes	BUY	45	5¢	$2	0x9c8fc4…
11-01 16:39:22	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x768006…
11-01 15:43:57	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	59	0¢	$0	0x902612…
11-01 12:48:04	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	40	32¢	$13	0x8c4edb…
11-01 11:50:48	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	48	50¢	$24	0xbb3c56…
11-01 11:47:25	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	28	88¢	$25	0xadce9f…
11-01 11:07:39	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	110	0¢	$0	0x17b891…
11-01 09:36:49	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on November 1?	No	SELL	59	63¢	$37	0xfc78ef…
11-01 08:17:31	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0x32b918…
11-01 07:29:54	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x6fe4b7…
11-01 07:27:25	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	12	23¢	$3	0xbd71fd…
11-01 07:24:09	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on November 1?	No	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0xce029f…
11-01 07:21:33	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xc4ed68…
11-01 05:12:36	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	34	3¢	$1	0x1169c1…
11-01 04:57:54	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x62a129…
11-01 04:54:48	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x83be83…
10-31 22:59:31	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	29	45¢	$13	0xa7dccb…
10-31 16:12:34	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	59	47¢	$28	0x9fc590…
10-31 09:17:48	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	42	66¢	$28	0xfaeec4…
10-31 06:33:12	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	83	51¢	$42	0x0aeda6…
10-31 06:12:16	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0xe8a879…
10-31 05:31:54	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	59	2¢	$1	0x1e52c9…
10-31 05:31:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	34	12¢	$4	0xa2aa47…
10-30 22:58:10	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	34	56¢	$19	0x6cbe23…
10-30 22:44:19	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x835e3c…
10-30 22:21:03	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	39	50¢	$20	0x0bdcdb…
10-30 20:16:21	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on October 31?	No	SELL	13	56¢	$8	0x1d134e…
10-30 20:16:19	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on October 31?	No	BUY	26	67¢	$18	0x238d04…
10-30 19:39:48	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on October 31?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xf4222f…
10-30 19:39:46	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on October 31?	No	BUY	2	67¢	$2	0x6930c7…
10-30 19:16:07	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0xf1164d…
10-30 19:00:39	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on October 31?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x93b1f5…
10-30 15:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	14	75¢	$11	0xe4b5c5…
10-30 15:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x9258a4…
10-30 15:10:48	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	17	75¢	$13	0xb923d3…
10-30 11:43:39	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on October 31?	No	SELL	14	89¢	$13	0x8f6edb…
10-30 11:28:04	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on October 31?	No	BUY	69	88¢	$61	0xcbd4e7…
10-30 07:29:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0x01fb2e…
10-30 04:35:12	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 30?	No	BUY	38	70¢	$27	0x91f15f…
10-30 04:04:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	25	6¢	$1	0xd059c4…
10-29 17:43:20	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	23	9¢	$2	0x8c6751…
10-29 17:38:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xfac478…
10-29 17:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	15	13¢	$2	0x64ebbd…
10-29 15:25:19	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x773be2…
10-29 14:59:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x4fda06…
10-29 11:27:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?	No	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0xa65fbc…
10-29 11:11:59	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	48	48¢	$23	0x76a84f…
10-29 07:52:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0xc1e965…
10-29 04:16:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on October 29?	No	SELL	37	38¢	$14	0xb2f1ef…
10-29 03:57:01	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xc9a03f…
10-29 03:22:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	29	26¢	$7	0x6113ac…
10-29 03:02:37	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	15	28¢	$4	0x896bc2…
10-28 23:10:05	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	23	40¢	$9	0x7f74c0…
10-28 23:03:08	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x10b7af…
10-28 23:02:32	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0xf3f563…
10-28 22:40:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x327ea4…
10-28 22:33:14	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x19357e…
10-28 22:24:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	29	31¢	$9	0x5e04a7…
10-28 19:19:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on October 29?	No	BUY	39	82¢	$32	0x8f9a4f…
10-28 18:24:17	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	38	54¢	$21	0xf1ae81…
10-28 18:14:37	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x169246…
10-28 11:17:34	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	18	38¢	$7	0x5cbd4c…
10-28 07:42:35	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on October 28?	No	SELL	22	10¢	$2	0x1fdd25…
10-28 04:14:35	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 6°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0xf3e539…
10-27 22:34:56	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on October 28?	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x5cf1aa…
10-27 21:36:50	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 5°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x273bb6…
10-27 21:31:06	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 6°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0055d0…
10-21 10:27:06	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x06a060…
10-20 08:27:16	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xe075db…
10-15 09:27:14	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xfda38c…
10-15 09:27:14	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 15?	No	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0x6efc70…
10-12 08:57:07	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	23	46¢	$11	0xeb110b…
10-12 08:57:07	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on October 12?	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0x65a8d8…
10-10 10:27:07	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0x3b320b…
10-10 09:57:04	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on October 10?	No	BUY	16	65¢	$10	0xc1afc7…
10-10 09:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on October 10?	No	BUY	12	54¢	$7	0x05d8ac…
10-09 09:57:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0xa3c9c4…
10-09 09:57:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on October 9?	No	BUY	12	45¢	$6	0x7cbd22…
10-08 14:36:02	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 8?	No	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0x693799…
10-08 09:57:08	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	48	18¢	$9	0xb03085…
10-08 08:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 8?	No	BUY	18	41¢	$7	0x71de07…
10-08 08:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	28	31¢	$9	0x49a818…
10-07 09:27:11	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	98	6¢	$5	0x8308e4…
10-07 09:27:11	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on October 7?	No	BUY	39	27¢	$10	0x30415a…
09-20 08:50:16	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 20?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xaee569…
09-20 08:32:53	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 20?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa29d23…
09-19 08:41:45	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 19?	No	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0x7f6d57…
09-19 08:40:37	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x13d53c…
09-18 09:51:28	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	29	47¢	$14	0xd0900c…
09-18 09:51:28	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 18?	No	BUY	24	53¢	$13	0xc9d9f5…
09-15 09:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 15?	No	BUY	16	60¢	$10	0xe0ff8d…
09-15 09:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	17	56¢	$10	0x772d79…
09-14 10:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0xc39409…