Gloomy-Material — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11.2K

Unrealized P&L

-$80

Hit rate

69.6%

Resolved

Trades

247

lifetime

Volume

$350.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.42K

Open exposure

$120

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 10-27 20:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

80% 55% +$5,250

Other

17% 25% -$15,422

Crypto

1% 40% -$1,799

Sports

1% 57% +$737

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+370	$100	18¢	$65	-$35	05-23 04:57
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No		+189	$100	30¢	$56	-$44	05-23 05:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$59.0K	31,990	31,990	+0	Yes	+$4,958	03-25 13:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	14	$40.7K	323,957	29,190	+294,766	No	+$17,098	05-26 19:57
will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	13	$31.7K	17,334	17,334	+0	Yes	+$2,882	03-06 04:32
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$22.5K	18,364	18,364	+0	Yes	+$13,681	02-28 07:22
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$17.0K	16,270	16,270	+0	open	—	10-27 20:18
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	4	$15.3K	10,304	10,304	+0	Yes	+$5,076	02-28 07:23
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	5	$12.5K	10,332	6,414	+3,918	No	-$3,455	03-03 17:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	9	$10.3K	70,388	3,858	+66,530	No	-$2,679	05-28 04:56
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	7	$9.4K	28,044	0	+28,044	No	-$9,400	03-03 07:24
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	6	$9.1K	14,912	4,679	+10,233	No	+$137	05-28 06:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	5	$8.0K	67,625	0	+67,625	No	-$8,000	05-21 18:20
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	6	$7.9K	319,338	19,338	+300,000	Yes	+$676	05-29 05:49
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	5	$6.2K	12,718	8,341	+4,377	No	+$3,418	05-23 13:50
will qatar strike iran by march 31	6	$6.0K	7,360	0	+7,360	No	-$6,000	03-03 17:48
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	15	$5.9K	24,271	4,000	+20,271	Yes	-$4,565	08-01 17:43
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	2	$5.4K	9,977	0	+9,977	No	-$5,417	03-03 13:46
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	21	$5.4K	43,368	12,737	+30,631	Yes	-$4,354	08-01 21:11
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	6	$5.0K	7,025	7,025	+0	open	—	10-27 20:26
iran closes its airspace by june 8	3	$4.8K	2,913	2,913	+0	Yes	+$1,005	06-08 03:08
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$4.8K	2,769	2,769	+0	Yes	+$558	02-28 19:33
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$4.0K	7,027	0	+7,027	No	-$4,000	05-29 04:45
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	3	$4.0K	3,250	3,250	+0	Yes	-$248	03-26 07:05
fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 btts	2	$3.4K	2,182	2,182	+0	Yes	+$960	06-14 21:18
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	5	$3.2K	9,097	8,057	+1,040	No	-$1,243	03-05 09:34
will israel strike greater beirut on march 4 2026	3	$3.1K	2,682	2,155	+528	Yes	-$1,501	03-03 11:28
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	3	$2.8K	4,446	3,414	+1,031	No	+$992	05-23 10:00
will iran strike israel on march 4	3	$2.4K	1,354	1,354	+0	Yes	+$250	03-06 19:47
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$2.4K	1,449	1,449	+0	Yes	+$442	02-28 07:24
fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	1	$2.0K	3,578	0	+3,578	Under	-$2,000	06-15 16:00
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	2	$2.0K	2,363	0	+2,363	No	-$2,000	03-03 14:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:26:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1,370	69¢	$945	0xb4b71c…
10-27 20:26:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2,083	29¢	$604	0x439fc7…
10-27 20:18:50	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	16,270	77¢	$12,456	0xbe0ad6…
10-27 16:37:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2,083	24¢	$500	0x1c740e…
10-27 16:36:15	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5,556	27¢	$1,500	0xe6800b…
10-27 11:55:09	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	7,143	28¢	$2,000	0x77edf9…
10-27 11:54:47	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	3,571	28¢	$1,000	0x2cf329…
10-27 11:08:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,370	73¢	$1,000	0x86ca47…
10-27 11:07:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3,571	27¢	$964	0x1f69ab…
10-27 10:59:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3,571	28¢	$1,000	0x49f330…
08-01 21:11:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2e2645…
08-01 17:50:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	228	44¢	$100	0x21f8a1…
08-01 17:48:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	454	44¢	$200	0x12374f…
08-01 17:48:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	228	44¢	$100	0xdbcbf0…
08-01 17:48:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	687	44¢	$300	0xf21c53…
08-01 17:47:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0xb6fd85…
08-01 17:43:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x188912…
08-01 17:43:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x52e657…
08-01 17:43:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x560b62…
08-01 17:43:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	345	29¢	$100	0x37667b…
08-01 17:42:50	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	3,616	28¢	$1,000	0xc36b8f…
08-01 13:03:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	758	8¢	$60	0xc35d89…
08-01 13:02:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	1,266	8¢	$100	0xf59f91…
08-01 13:01:41	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0x4f4962…
08-01 13:00:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	3,480	23¢	$800	0x681fc2…
08-01 12:10:26	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	638	31¢	$200	0x499da2…
08-01 11:51:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	455	22¢	$100	0x21c837…
08-01 11:51:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	230	22¢	$50	0x1ad419…
08-01 11:50:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	498	20¢	$100	0xb64242…
08-01 11:50:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	987	20¢	$200	0xb15550…
08-01 11:49:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	443	23¢	$100	0x57da30…
08-01 11:49:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	2,056	24¢	$500	0x07bf30…
08-01 11:49:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	998	20¢	$200	0x0ba58d…
08-01 11:49:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	555	18¢	$100	0xf7558f…
08-01 11:48:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	4,764	21¢	$1,000	0x9af27d…
08-01 11:48:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	3,896	13¢	$500	0x698cb6…
08-01 11:48:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	2,660	11¢	$300	0xa3c8cc…
08-01 11:48:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	5,000	6¢	$300	0x463c49…
08-01 11:47:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	5,000	6¢	$300	0xf74be2…
08-01 11:47:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	1,667	6¢	$100	0x578913…
08-01 11:47:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xc65c91…
08-01 11:47:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe840ac…
08-01 11:46:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	5,263	19¢	$1,000	0xc1cfcf…
08-01 11:46:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	5,263	19¢	$1,000	0x7f3b03…
08-01 11:46:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	547	18¢	$100	0x9000aa…
08-01 11:38:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	4,000	17¢	$685	0xb2c399…
08-01 11:37:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	SELL	12,732	4¢	$511	0x8edc64…
08-01 10:04:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	2,500	20¢	$500	0xc90a2c…
08-01 10:03:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	6,482	8¢	$500	0x00a7e7…
08-01 09:49:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0xed22b1…
08-01 09:49:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	5,000	8¢	$400	0x17e44e…
08-01 09:48:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x3497c1…
08-01 09:48:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0xdfc250…
06-17 16:48:43	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	Yes	BUY	1,636	55¢	$900	0x864e2a…
06-17 16:47:58	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	1,636	55¢	$900	0x8c0eac…
06-15 16:00:12	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	3,578	56¢	$2,000	0x50e8d6…
06-15 15:59:43	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	1,282	78¢	$1,000	0x4b4db7…
06-14 22:02:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	1,448	72¢	$1,049	0xa21864…
06-14 22:02:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	793	63¢	$499	0x15953b…
06-14 22:01:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	1,052	98¢	$1,035	0x3231c8…
06-14 21:18:28	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 btts	Yes	SELL	2,182	99¢	$2,160	0x16986b…
06-14 19:35:13	Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2,182	55¢	$1,200	0x1d14aa…
06-13 12:46:16	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,667	60¢	$1,000	0x3b4cf4…
06-11 17:37:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	1,052	48¢	$500	0xc8d4d8…
06-11 17:37:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	1,515	33¢	$500	0xb9978b…
06-11 17:36:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,448	14¢	$200	0x3d99a6…
06-09 19:53:45	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	BUY	3,209	16¢	$500	0x59677d…
06-09 19:42:39	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 15	Yes	BUY	9,473	11¢	$1,000	0x18ef12…
06-08 03:08:01	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	2,913	100¢	$2,905	0x7c45ee…
06-07 19:32:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xa27836…
06-07 19:32:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x1c3de3…
06-07 19:27:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	1,506	66¢	$1,000	0xd94a12…
06-07 19:27:37	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	1,407	64¢	$900	0x125b6d…
06-07 19:15:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 19:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x5a019f…
06-03 04:53:28	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	612	64¢	$394	0xf59080…
05-29 05:49:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	100,000	0¢	$200	0xcbd21e…
05-29 05:18:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	200,000	0¢	$400	0x992dae…
05-29 04:45:06	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	5,005	60¢	$3,000	0x62a286…
05-28 06:43:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4,175	24¢	$1,000	0x8b94e2…
05-28 06:43:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4,303	23¢	$1,000	0x39e856…
05-28 04:56:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	49,104	0¢	$200	0x2ef15e…
05-26 21:33:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	5,651	5¢	$300	0x3ba6c9…
05-26 21:30:25	Spread: Thunder (-5.5)	Spurs	BUY	1,754	57¢	$1,000	0x91c6e0…
05-26 19:57:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	62,541	1¢	$500	0x91423d…
05-26 04:33:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	121,228	1¢	$1,000	0x6a147a…
05-26 04:32:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	29,626	1¢	$200	0x5fd965…
05-26 04:25:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	793	63¢	$500	0x0e88e3…
05-25 21:09:20	Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)	Knicks	BUY	725	69¢	$500	0xf5cdfc…
05-25 21:05:08	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	BUY	1,852	54¢	$1,000	0x33a910…
05-25 05:22:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	2,022	49¢	$1,000	0x82d202…
05-25 05:21:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,164	34¢	$400	0x2b98d1…
05-25 05:11:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	50,685	3¢	$1,387	0xa854b1…
05-25 05:11:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	21,268	5¢	$1,113	0x670625…
05-24 04:37:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x9a7efb…
05-23 21:43:13	Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xb5e89b…
05-23 13:55:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	2,515	40¢	$1,000	0x128851…
05-23 13:54:29	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	No	BUY	2,532	39¢	$1,000	0x490415…
05-23 13:50:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	BUY	3,147	38¢	$1,200	0x65ca0a…
05-23 13:49:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	3,626	28¢	$1,000	0x612089…
05-23 13:49:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	2,516	40¢	$1,000	0x6f565d…