Honest-Curio — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.73K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.1%

Resolved

137

Trades

776

lifetime

Volume

$75.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$97

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 08-18 14:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Politics

56% 28% +$13,488

Other

37% 21% -$3,848

Sports

8% 15% -$911

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	14	$6.3K	7,552	7,552	+0	Yes	+$4,587	06-14 22:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	19	$5.6K	5,560	5,560	+0	Yes	+$3,161	02-28 19:30
us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	22	$3.7K	12,842	12,842	+0	No	-$695	08-09 21:32
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	5	$3.3K	2,106	2,106	+0	Yes	+$851	06-14 21:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$2.7K	1,850	1,850	+0	Yes	+$188	05-24 00:23
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$2.2K	1,925	1,925	+0	Yes	+$796	06-08 22:25
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	4	$2.1K	1,586	1,586	+0	Yes	+$548	06-25 12:51
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	10	$2.1K	3,250	3,250	+0	No	+$98	06-25 18:09
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	7	$1.9K	7,684	7,684	+0	No	-$43	06-17 20:20
cbb tcu txtech 2026 03 03	5	$1.8K	2,700	2,539	+161	TCU Horned Frogs	+$796	03-04 02:03
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	4	$1.7K	1,546	1,546	+0	Yes	+$907	06-20 17:56
cbb byu cin 2026 03 03	13	$1.7K	3,597	0	+3,597	Cincinnati Bearcats	-$1,705	03-04 02:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$1.5K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$240	06-16 02:05
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$1.5K	2,484	0	+2,484	Yes	+$984	02-18 17:18
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	8	$1.4K	4,806	556	+4,250	Yes	+$3,256	06-11 21:28
will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	6	$1.3K	2,071	1,721	+350	No	-$828	06-24 14:12
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	7	$1.3K	1,753	976	+777	Yes	+$466	07-27 16:53
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$1.2K	1,580	1,580	+0	No	-$14	06-16 02:32
cbb ala ga 2026 03 03	9	$1.2K	3,250	0	+3,250	Georgia Bulldogs	-$1,230	03-04 01:49
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	7	$1.1K	1,663	1,663	+0	Yes	-$307	06-19 23:35
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	5	$1.0K	665	664	+1	Yes	+$186	06-24 23:49
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	4	$1.0K	1,947	0	+1,947	Yes	+$944	02-18 14:55
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	3	$993	1,035	1,035	+0	No	-$41	05-24 00:19
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$978	18,012	0	+18,012	No	-$978	06-27 02:50
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$953	907	907	+0	Yes	+$153	02-28 14:55
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$867	694	694	+0	Yes	-$21	07-07 01:38
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	14	$835	9,730	9,730	+0	No	-$124	08-07 15:57
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	2	$810	1,150	1,150	+0	Yes	-$190	06-17 17:09
cbb miaoh tenn 2026 03 20	4	$800	4,500	0	+4,500	Tennessee Volunteers	-$800	03-20 15:41
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$643	1,800	306	+1,494	Yes	+$949	02-22 01:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-18 14:44:31	Will James Fishback at least 30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	387	1¢	$2	0x2ae1cd…
08-18 14:44:22	Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	108	6¢	$7	0x07d4c1…
08-18 14:44:16	Will James Fishback win 20–25% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	154	3¢	$4	0xfa134d…
08-18 14:44:13	Will James Fishback win 25–30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	396	3¢	$10	0xf503c2…
08-18 12:31:09	Will James Fishback win 20–25% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	154	5¢	$8	0x0e6c1a…
08-18 12:30:43	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by august 31 20260730185522346	Yes	SELL	554	2¢	$8	0x70a7f1…
08-18 12:29:16	Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	108	9¢	$10	0x8c58ec…
08-18 12:28:45	Will James Fishback at least 30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	387	2¢	$9	0xb26d35…
08-18 12:28:25	Will James Fishback win 25–30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	206	5¢	$10	0x6aa793…
08-18 12:27:40	Will James Fishback win 25–30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	191	4¢	$8	0xc8ec76…
08-18 12:27:16	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	512	53¢	$270	0xae50f4…
08-18 12:25:31	Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	2,842	6¢	$168	0x14146a…
08-18 12:25:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	SELL	1,000	15¢	$153	0xa4dcc8…
08-13 00:09:49	Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	524	8¢	$40	0x63a350…
08-13 00:09:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	300	14¢	$42	0x289e35…
08-12 19:44:37	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by august 31 20260730185522346	Yes	BUY	554	4¢	$22	0xd93404…
08-12 19:43:22	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	Yes	SELL	834	3¢	$23	0x71ea46…
08-11 19:26:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	300	16¢	$48	0x175164…
08-11 19:26:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	BUY	1,000	25¢	$250	0x85fd08…
08-11 03:34:37	Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	725	7¢	$51	0x06494a…
08-09 21:32:12	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5,000	7¢	$350	0xc33640…
08-08 15:37:19	Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	1,593	7¢	$119	0xbf52ee…
08-08 15:35:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1,393	9¢	$125	0x5a29ed…
08-07 16:01:48	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	Yes	BUY	834	6¢	$50	0x342252…
08-07 15:57:43	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	2,000	2¢	$50	0x7dbf08…
08-06 02:47:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	1,393	14¢	$195	0xd83b4a…
08-06 02:46:03	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	6,157	3¢	$195	0x0eb44f…
08-04 01:06:18	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	2,030	4¢	$89	0x781e90…
08-04 01:05:53	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	4,319	2¢	$89	0x5bbfe0…
08-03 00:02:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	933	2¢	$14	0xd6e28b…
08-03 00:01:09	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$11	0x8d9f5c…
08-02 23:50:06	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	Yes	SELL	278	1¢	$3	0xc49f25…
08-02 03:32:42	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	1,839	2¢	$35	0x2e6c2c…
08-02 03:32:21	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	349	10¢	$35	0x52e86f…
08-02 03:30:14	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	342	12¢	$41	0x150511…
08-02 03:29:50	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	SELL	407	10¢	$41	0xd62821…
08-02 03:26:30	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	774	3¢	$24	0x15f26e…
08-02 03:25:29	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	3,312	3¢	$100	0xb8a2b9…
08-02 03:21:29	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	690	3¢	$21	0x8a093f…
08-02 03:21:08	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	1,472	2¢	$25	0x689c62…
08-02 03:20:56	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	254	12¢	$30	0x041b5c…
08-02 03:18:59	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2,229	11¢	$250	0xa22acb…
08-02 03:13:56	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	966	3¢	$29	0xda5e26…
08-02 03:13:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	SELL	565	4¢	$23	0xdf839f…
08-02 03:13:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	208	2¢	$3	0x3dbc7c…
08-02 03:12:53	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	1,508	1¢	$22	0x903d23…
08-02 03:12:35	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2,524	11¢	$275	0xc951e2…
08-01 22:35:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0xd6d7f6…
08-01 22:35:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x4af462…
08-01 22:33:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x7d6967…
08-01 22:33:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	145	33¢	$48	0x3a93e9…
08-01 22:33:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x396b36…
08-01 22:33:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	107	33¢	$35	0x88fa6d…
08-01 22:32:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	103	39¢	$40	0xf82ec5…
08-01 22:32:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0x240c62…
08-01 22:31:27	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,016	26¢	$264	0xc7963a…
08-01 22:31:11	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	4,015	8¢	$321	0x60b53a…
07-31 04:13:21	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	SELL	306	35¢	$108	0x872032…
07-30 17:13:29	iran military action against a gulf state on july 27 20260708212322952	Yes	BUY	279	4¢	$10	0xa7211e…
07-30 17:13:24	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	BUY	306	33¢	$100	0xb9c30b…
07-30 01:54:50	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	Yes	BUY	46	43¢	$20	0x03fa14…
07-30 01:54:02	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	225	12¢	$27	0x1aa18c…
07-30 01:53:08	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	482	11¢	$53	0xa7e891…
07-30 01:48:03	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	Yes	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0xa92e7c…
07-30 01:47:06	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	425	2¢	$6	0xb6d22d…
07-30 01:46:50	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0xb8f8b0…
07-30 01:45:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	417	29¢	$121	0xa7a437…
07-29 23:40:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	417	24¢	$100	0xb7d980…
07-28 18:01:19	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	Yes	BUY	278	2¢	$5	0xe57cab…
07-28 18:01:10	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0x9dca80…
07-28 01:51:31	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	171	7¢	$12	0x845498…
07-28 01:48:57	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	511	2¢	$12	0x9f5b29…
07-28 01:47:00	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0xc211f7…
07-27 16:53:40	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	286	2¢	$6	0x2d527d…
07-27 16:25:25	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	Yes	SELL	888	0¢	$1	0xcba498…
07-27 16:25:00	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,482	17¢	$250	0xac7ffd…
07-27 16:24:40	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,016	32¢	$325	0x1be14a…
07-27 16:22:09	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	492	12¢	$59	0xf5a028…
07-27 16:18:48	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	976	88¢	$859	0x38bbb4…
07-25 17:49:40	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	511	7¢	$36	0x238ef6…
07-25 17:48:58	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	277	13¢	$36	0x21d45b…
07-25 17:48:06	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	208	12¢	$26	0xe46955…
07-25 17:46:00	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	201	13¢	$26	0xfe60d7…
07-25 17:44:10	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	179	14¢	$25	0xdade6d…
07-25 17:43:46	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0x6e96a3…
07-22 22:18:36	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	122	23¢	$28	0xfc31b1…
07-22 22:18:15	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	370	8¢	$28	0x59f9bc…
07-22 01:38:07	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	328	31¢	$100	0x6e28e7…
07-22 01:37:46	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	370	12¢	$45	0xe18297…
07-22 01:37:31	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	430	10¢	$45	0x582938…
07-22 01:36:49	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0x589dc9…
07-22 01:34:37	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	1,573	7¢	$110	0xb1fde0…
07-20 18:28:52	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	Yes	BUY	378	2¢	$9	0x75f198…
07-20 18:28:27	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	208	4¢	$9	0xe20205…
07-20 18:20:34	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 24 20260720003505491	Yes	BUY	135	1¢	$2	0xc464f1…
07-20 18:20:28	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x4f64f0…
07-20 18:19:45	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	Yes	BUY	466	2¢	$10	0x803ee9…
07-20 18:19:06	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 24 20260720003505491	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$4	0x76fc03…
07-20 18:18:25	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 24 20260720003505491	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe19bb7…
07-20 17:56:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	169	11¢	$19	0xfe64ed…