Chubby-Divider — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

68.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$190

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 07-08 09:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

75% 0% $-5

Other

17% 100% +$1

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+33	$5	16¢	$5	+$0	07-08 09:22
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes		+10	$1	10¢	$1	$-0	07-08 09:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	3	$63	95	67	+29	open	—	03-17 01:58
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$39	30	30	+0	open	—	03-17 01:53
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$11	96	96	+0	Yes	+$1	04-21 21:15
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	05-06 05:30
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	1	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	04-04 16:56
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	1	$10	56	0	+56	open	—	04-01 07:00
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	1	$6	8	0	+8	open	—	06-12 05:19
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	1	$5	62	0	+62	No	$-5	05-06 05:30
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	1	$5	26	0	+26	open	—	05-24 03:59
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	50	0	+50	open	—	04-02 01:42
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$5	33	0	+33	open	—	07-08 09:22
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$5	22	0	+22	open	—	04-04 16:54
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	1	$5	16	0	+16	open	—	04-02 01:43
btc updown 5m 1773292500	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	03-12 05:19
will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	1	$3	10	0	+10	open	—	06-12 05:21
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	1	$2	33	0	+33	open	—	05-06 05:36
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	07-08 09:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 09:29:19	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x507243…
07-08 09:22:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xbfe91b…
06-12 05:21:43	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x55beb4…
06-12 05:19:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xba5e7d…
05-24 03:59:02	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	20¢	$5	0x217cc0…
05-06 05:36:54	Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x42cfed…
05-06 05:30:48	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x02587a…
05-06 05:30:10	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x33fe3f…
04-21 21:15:12	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	96	6¢	$6	0x89be87…
04-04 16:56:35	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x62f87f…
04-04 16:54:55	Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x877939…
04-02 01:43:09	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xddfb0d…
04-02 01:42:01	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xaac7df…
04-01 07:00:15	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x4e497e…
03-17 01:58:19	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x1db8f4…
03-17 01:53:41	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xc1a90f…
03-17 01:50:35	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	67	65¢	$43	0xd6bde2…
03-16 13:54:13	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	96	5¢	$5	0x7dd6d0…
03-12 05:19:17	btc updown 5m 1773292500	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0bede2…
03-12 05:17:33	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0xd6f85a…
03-12 05:08:33	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x85eadb…