Crisp-Discipline — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$777

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

10.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$12.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$139

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 06-01 09:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Politics

45% 25% -$76

Other

37% 24% -$486

Tech

11% 0% -$2

Sports

6% 50% -$203

Crypto

2% 0% -$11

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-01).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$1.5K	5,813	5,813	+0	No	-$30	05-10 11:16
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	4	$1.3K	660	660	+0	No	-$2	05-23 07:31
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?	2	$1.3K	1,100	1,100	+0	No	-$109	05-11 11:55
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$1.2K	1,636	1,636	+0	No	-$39	05-11 11:59
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	2	$1.1K	1,879	1,879	+0	Yes	-$75	05-23 15:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$1.0K	690	690	+0	No	-$7	05-26 10:00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	5	$831	1,497	1,497	-0	No	+$0	05-29 10:36
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$755	1,200	1,200	+0	No	-$133	05-12 09:42
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$458	605	364	+241	Yes	+$23	05-30 17:33
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$427	220	220	+0	No	-$1	05-18 11:02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	2	$395	210	210	+0	No	+$0	05-28 15:16
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	2	$348	203	203	+0	Over	-$52	05-06 20:35
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch	2	$273	200	200	+0	Yes	-$11	06-01 06:20
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	2	$226	276	0	+276	Sean Strickland	-$226	05-09 23:13
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	2	$215	4,387	4,387	+0	No	-$4	05-05 10:25
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien	1	$200	203	0	+203	Rafael Jodar	+$3	05-12 11:53
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	18	$164	160	140	+20	No	-$63	05-05 12:47
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	5	$147	819	819	+0	KT Rolster	$0	05-30 08:23
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	2	$79	50	50	+0	Under	+$21	05-05 20:57
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	2	$62	50	50	+0	Under	-$20	05-06 20:31
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	5	$58	200	200	+0	No	+$2	06-01 03:14
Will 1 contenders win the jackpot at The American Rodeo Championship Weekend 2026?	2	$51	118	118	+0	No	-$10	05-11 12:05
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	1	$30	30	0	+30	Lorenzo Musetti	+$0	05-08 22:01
Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election?	2	$28	20	20	+0	No	-$2	06-01 09:04
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	2	$23	20	20	+0	Yes	-$8	05-06 20:43
LoL: Solary vs ZYB Esport (BO3) - LFL Playoffs	1	$15	16	0	+16	Solary	+$1	05-06 17:48
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer	2	$14	30	30	+0	No	-$10	05-06 19:10
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 1	2	$13	20	0	+20	Team Secret	-$13	05-11 09:40
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs	2	$5	10	10	+0	WW Team	+$0	05-30 10:51
Will Walmart Q1 US comparable sales growth be above 4.6%?	1	$5	10	0	+10	No	-$5	05-21 10:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 09:04:09	Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x6a9835…
06-01 08:53:39	Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xdbdd39…
06-01 06:20:29	Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	200	66¢	$131	0xfb4496…
06-01 03:14:58	Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	167	15¢	$25	0x2e7fbc…
06-01 02:30:34	Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	33	15¢	$5	0x8b5e7a…
05-31 19:53:00	Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x47ac15…
05-31 09:52:20	Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0xed2264…
05-31 09:52:20	Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	90	14¢	$13	0xa91120…
05-31 09:51:52	Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	80	14¢	$11	0x4e1fa8…
05-30 17:33:16	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	241	57¢	$138	0x8e9a74…
05-30 16:38:25	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	364	33¢	$120	0xb8ab8e…
05-30 13:24:57	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	364	55¢	$200	0x39193b…
05-30 12:28:20	Grok 4.4 released by June 15?	Yes	SELL	9	21¢	$2	0x259506…
05-30 11:52:50	Grok 4.4 released by June 15?	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0xeaf7a9…
05-30 10:51:02	Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs	Johnny Speeds	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x6551c2…
05-30 10:30:32	Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs	Johnny Speeds	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x7d39b9…
05-30 08:23:29	LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	DN SOOPers	SELL	819	9¢	$74	0x3277d0…
05-30 08:22:40	LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	DN SOOPers	BUY	169	9¢	$15	0x4a4422…
05-30 08:22:40	LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	DN SOOPers	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x2dd5b1…
05-30 08:22:31	LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	DN SOOPers	BUY	440	9¢	$40	0xd220d4…
05-30 08:22:24	LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	DN SOOPers	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x8cdf41…
05-29 10:36:42	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	SELL	397	16¢	$63	0xd26522…
05-29 10:33:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	BUY	33	16¢	$5	0xbe05bd…
05-29 10:31:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	BUY	364	16¢	$58	0x7419b5…
05-28 15:16:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	SELL	210	94¢	$198	0x43471f…
05-28 15:14:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	210	94¢	$197	0x5d9369…
05-27 07:24:03	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	SELL	1,100	32¢	$352	0xb3eaa8…
05-27 07:22:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	BUY	1,100	32¢	$352	0x653240…
05-26 10:00:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	690	73¢	$504	0x0106a1…
05-26 09:58:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	690	74¢	$511	0x4e7770…
05-23 15:02:11	Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	1,879	26¢	$489	0xfeab9b…
05-23 11:32:07	Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1,879	30¢	$564	0x19b5d6…
05-23 07:31:05	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	560	100¢	$559	0xa03d40…
05-23 07:28:24	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	560	100¢	$559	0x79686a…
05-22 08:59:11	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0xa20a00…
05-22 08:58:45	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x50c8d7…
05-21 10:32:11	Will Walmart Q1 US comparable sales growth be above 4.6%?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5abc97…
05-21 10:32:11	Will Walmart Q1 US comparable sales growth be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x3064b0…
05-18 11:02:31	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	220	97¢	$213	0xe2fde8…
05-18 11:00:58	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	97¢	$214	0x5a486a…
05-12 11:53:40	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien	Rafael Jodar	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0xae9823…
05-12 09:42:48	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,200	26¢	$311	0x88447e…
05-12 09:42:02	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,200	37¢	$444	0x7a2aa4…
05-11 12:05:35	Will 1 contenders win the jackpot at The American Rodeo Championship Weekend 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	17¢	$21	0x3c9723…
05-11 12:03:46	Will 1 contenders win the jackpot at The American Rodeo Championship Weekend 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	26¢	$31	0x3c00ca…
05-11 11:59:52	Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,636	37¢	$599	0x260ede…
05-11 11:59:11	Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,636	39¢	$638	0x092a85…
05-11 11:55:43	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,100	53¢	$581	0xb552cd…
05-11 11:54:44	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?	Yes	BUY	1,100	63¢	$690	0xb1921d…
05-11 09:40:07	Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 1	Gen.G Esports	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x77026d…
05-11 09:39:27	Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 1	Gen.G Esports	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x47868a…
05-10 11:16:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,813	12¢	$726	0x771dad…
05-10 10:47:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,813	13¢	$756	0x1998c5…
05-09 23:13:33	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	238	82¢	$195	0x93a45c…
05-09 23:05:54	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	38	82¢	$31	0xc6216d…
05-08 22:01:00	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	Lorenzo Musetti	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x0fb731…
05-06 20:43:15	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x6af41b…
05-06 20:35:55	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	203	73¢	$148	0x329a8a…
05-06 20:31:36	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0x2b46a5…
05-06 19:14:38	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x9d86a9…
05-06 19:12:37	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0x31fb69…
05-06 19:10:09	Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0xe764d8…
05-06 18:19:15	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x76dc39…
05-06 18:18:15	Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x7532a3…
05-06 17:48:20	LoL: Solary vs ZYB Esport (BO3) - LFL Playoffs	Solary	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x4220ba…
05-05 21:12:16	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x17edc1…
05-05 20:57:50	Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x116db3…
05-05 19:47:44	Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x5604cd…
05-05 12:47:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0x0a021a…
05-05 12:47:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0xf329dd…
05-05 12:47:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	25	66¢	$16	0x20eb90…
05-05 12:46:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xb57165…
05-05 12:46:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x6475cc…
05-05 12:46:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	4	66¢	$2	0x5deb63…
05-05 12:46:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x571181…
05-05 12:45:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	25	66¢	$16	0xd2c231…
05-05 11:15:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	No	SELL	40	49¢	$20	0x285cfe…
05-05 11:14:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	SELL	67	51¢	$34	0x7ea65e…
05-05 11:12:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xf678bb…
05-05 11:08:02	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xf122c1…
05-05 11:07:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0xd924ff…
05-05 11:05:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0x960582…
05-05 10:55:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0xc9119f…
05-05 10:55:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xc8fca8…
05-05 10:54:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	21	46¢	$10	0x619745…
05-05 10:53:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xf3785d…
05-05 10:25:56	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4,387	2¢	$105	0x2b36a4…
05-05 09:53:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,387	2¢	$110	0x818de4…