Round-Theology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$82

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 06-29 12:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Crypto

39% 53% -$33

Other

27% 4% -$46

Politics

21% 40% -$8

Sports

13% 67% +$5

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-29).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?	2	$128	122	122	+0	Yes	+$114	05-16 09:04
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$116	70	70	+0	No	+$16	05-29 22:01
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$100	327	327	+0	Yes	-$10	06-17 20:22
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	2	$54	97	97	+0	Yes	-$6	05-15 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	2	$53	38	38	+0	Down	+$3	05-30 11:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	2	$52	50	50	+0	Up	+$2	05-30 11:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	2	$50	46	46	+0	Down	+$0	06-02 20:57
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	2	$40	41	41	+0	cancelled	+$0	05-29 12:09
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	2	$40	39	39	+0	cancelled	$0	05-24 21:13
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	2	$40	38	38	+0	cancelled	$0	05-29 12:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	2	$36	47	47	+0	Down	-$14	05-30 11:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	3	$35	401	40	+361	Down	-$15	05-04 16:08
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$34	116	116	+0	No	+$14	06-29 12:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	5	$34	50	37	+13	Down	-$6	05-19 18:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	3	$28	34	33	+2	Down	+$6	05-02 05:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	2	$23	16	16	+0	Down	+$3	05-02 11:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	4	$22	21	21	+0	Up	+$8	05-02 05:50
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$21	61	61	+0	No	+$1	06-17 20:23
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	2	$21	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-29 22:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	2	$18	34	34	+0	Down	-$2	05-02 05:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$15	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	05-18 18:18
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17?	1	$15	53	0	+53	No	-$15	05-16 16:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	2	$14	12	12	+0	Up	+$4	05-04 16:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$11	12	12	+0	Down	+$1	05-04 16:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	2	$11	20	20	+0	Up	-$9	05-02 20:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$10	10	10	+0	Down	+$0	05-19 18:27
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 26?	1	$10	2,562	0	+2,562	No	-$10	05-24 21:13
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 21?	1	$10	414	0	+414	No	-$10	05-20 03:43
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$10	500	0	+500	No	-$10	05-18 18:12
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16?	2	$10	435	0	+435	No	-$10	05-15 07:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 12:55:41	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	116	21¢	$24	0x3c538c…
06-17 20:23:01	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	61	18¢	$11	0xb60e5e…
06-17 20:22:40	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	327	14¢	$45	0x0b3bf3…
06-04 20:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x076f8e…
06-02 20:57:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	46	54¢	$25	0x303af7…
06-02 20:56:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x23f1eb…
05-30 12:00:53	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	238	17¢	$40	0xdb7afb…
05-30 11:57:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	38	72¢	$28	0xf693bb…
05-30 11:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xa8f701…
05-30 11:32:52	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	116	9¢	$10	0x41f881…
05-30 11:32:29	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0xf9ecdb…
05-30 11:31:36	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	89	17¢	$15	0xa48a62…
05-30 11:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	50	55¢	$27	0xffd8a2…
05-30 11:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x697c8d…
05-30 11:17:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	47	23¢	$11	0x595f0b…
05-30 11:16:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	47	54¢	$25	0x042c9d…
05-29 22:01:39	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0xd839fe…
05-29 22:01:18	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	70	94¢	$66	0xce35d3…
05-29 12:09:20	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	SELL	38	51¢	$20	0x4ae90d…
05-29 12:09:13	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	SELL	41	49¢	$20	0x4da7ca…
05-24 21:14:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 26?	Yes	BUY	391	1¢	$5	0x9cb908…
05-24 21:13:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 26?	Yes	BUY	2,562	0¢	$10	0x963bbf…
05-24 21:13:41	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	SELL	39	51¢	$20	0x615013…
05-21 08:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x171bca…
05-20 03:43:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 21?	Yes	BUY	638	1¢	$5	0x6b0c38…
05-20 03:43:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	414	2¢	$10	0xa94082…
05-20 03:42:03	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	48	10¢	$5	0x8bd898…
05-20 03:41:49	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x564bbf…
05-20 03:41:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0xf4ea8b…
05-20 03:38:26	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 21?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x992b4e…
05-20 03:35:50	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 21?	Yes	BUY	352	1¢	$5	0x79cca2…
05-19 18:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0x7516ba…
05-19 18:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x740882…
05-19 18:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x860d36…
05-19 18:21:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	37	38¢	$14	0x49feea…
05-19 18:21:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xf6941d…
05-19 18:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x040783…
05-19 18:20:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xd581c9…
05-18 18:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x99af5a…
05-18 18:15:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x7fa875…
05-18 18:13:15	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	435	2¢	$10	0xbfa7f3…
05-18 18:12:59	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x1d6d13…
05-17 20:13:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 19?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x1cce04…
05-17 20:12:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 19?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x6fde57…
05-16 16:08:35	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	467	1¢	$5	0xa6efa4…
05-16 16:05:47	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	251	2¢	$5	0xe5930c…
05-16 16:05:32	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0x5a9117…
05-16 16:01:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17?	Yes	BUY	53	29¢	$15	0x809205…
05-16 15:57:27	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	26	20¢	$5	0xb92a33…
05-16 15:51:33	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	96	5¢	$5	0x4d21be…
05-16 15:51:23	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	298	2¢	$5	0x64fd71…
05-16 15:49:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	895	1¢	$5	0xafff59…
05-16 09:04:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?	Yes	SELL	122	99¢	$121	0x2640c7…
05-15 07:31:41	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	1,126	1¢	$10	0x200e8c…
05-15 07:31:34	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	921	1¢	$10	0x98ec70…
05-15 07:24:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on May 16?	Yes	BUY	1,744	0¢	$5	0x953aa8…
05-15 07:23:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x5433d0…
05-15 07:22:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	119	4¢	$5	0x720bb4…
05-15 07:22:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	316	2¢	$5	0x93dd9f…
05-15 07:21:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	122	6¢	$7	0x40c5b4…
05-15 07:15:10	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	No	SELL	97	25¢	$24	0x577a7c…
05-15 07:14:53	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	No	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0x0ef96f…
05-15 07:13:50	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x482f6a…
05-04 16:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	12	75¢	$9	0xbbcd84…
05-04 16:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x1e6464…
05-04 16:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	12	53¢	$6	0xa545f5…
05-04 16:11:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xd5a04b…
05-04 16:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	361	4¢	$15	0x508c52…
05-04 16:07:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0x73847f…
05-04 16:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x656710…
05-04 04:17:34	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xbbd1f2…
05-04 04:13:14	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x485193…
05-04 04:11:10	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x299af5…
05-02 20:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xa0296a…
05-02 20:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x4dbbd3…
05-02 20:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x215d2a…
05-02 20:40:44	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xc6fef5…
05-02 11:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	SELL	16	83¢	$13	0x6c18c3…
05-02 11:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x25c945…
05-02 11:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0xdd4494…
05-02 11:26:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x4ecabf…
05-02 05:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	34	24¢	$8	0xe28b92…
05-02 05:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x95fc8e…
05-02 05:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x85b610…
05-02 05:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	SELL	33	53¢	$17	0xa4caa9…
05-02 05:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	33	31¢	$10	0x41420a…
05-02 05:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xf7fe6b…
05-02 05:49:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xfc12b1…
05-02 05:47:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	14	58¢	$8	0x48ca48…
05-02 05:46:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x64228f…