Realized P&L
+$1.22K
Unrealized P&L
+$328
Hit rate
65.3%
Resolved
5,426
Trades
30,023
lifetime
Volume
$113.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$1.07K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-20
last 10-26 14:31
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 69 days
Categories
Other
93% 38% +$1,112
Crypto
4% 43% +$32
Politics
3% 44% +$68
Sports
0% 43% +$2
Tech
0% 25% +$5
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
57 active days in 12wk • peak 1289 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +90 $40 99¢ $89 +$49 10-11 11:42
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +87 $61 98¢ $86 +$24 10-21 10:35
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +90 $56 82¢ $74 +$18 10-05 17:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +75 $51 98¢ $73 +$22 10-21 21:18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +66 $44 99¢ $65 +$22 10-01 03:25
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +63 $53 99¢ $62 +$10 10-22 06:30
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +50 $36 98¢ $49 +$13 10-01 18:34
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +50 $14 97¢ $48 +$35 10-12 17:37
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +52 $31 82¢ $43 +$12 10-21 19:54
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections? No +40 $36 97¢ $39 +$3 10-05 06:19
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +40 $31 96¢ $38 +$7 10-21 21:26
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +30 $20 100¢ $30 +$10 10-07 23:48
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +37 $21 81¢ $30 +$9 10-21 17:16
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +30 $26 96¢ $29 +$2 10-19 20:21
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +30 $5 95¢ $28 +$23 10-13 22:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +40 $18 70¢ $28 +$10 09-30 21:15
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? No +30 $22 86¢ $26 +$4 10-21 21:23
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +30 $26 78¢ $23 -$3 09-13 18:33
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +35 $12 58¢ $20 +$9 09-30 21:32
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? No +20 $8 99¢ $20 +$12 10-04 22:59
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +20 $18 98¢ $20 +$2 10-21 21:03
will the next google gemini pro model be released by october 31 2026 No +20 $9 98¢ $20 +$11 10-01 19:00
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +20 $14 91¢ $18 +$4 10-05 15:07
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes +20 $18 85¢ $17 -$1 10-05 05:59
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No +20 $2 82¢ $16 +$15 09-30 22:01
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +20 $17 82¢ $16 $0 10-04 19:40
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +17 $16 93¢ $16 +$0 10-15 12:43
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +20 $15 78¢ $16 +$0 10-15 21:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October? No +15 $11 99¢ $15 +$4 10-20 10:08
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +16 $12 92¢ $15 +$3 10-13 20:27