Realized P&L
+$1.21K
Unrealized P&L
+$354
Hit rate
65.3%
Resolved
5,418
Trades
30,023
lifetime
Volume
$113.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$1.14K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-20
last 10-26 14:31
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 67 days
Categories
Other
93% 38% +$1,106
Crypto
4% 43% +$32
Politics
3% 44% +$68
Sports
0% 43% +$2
Tech
0% 25% +$5
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
57 active days in 12wk • peak 1289 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? No +97 $65 99¢ $96 +$32 10-20 07:40
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +90 $40 98¢ $89 +$49 10-11 11:42
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +87 $61 97¢ $85 +$24 10-21 10:35
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +90 $56 82¢ $74 +$18 10-05 17:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +75 $51 99¢ $74 +$23 10-21 21:18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +66 $44 98¢ $65 +$21 10-01 03:25
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +63 $53 97¢ $61 +$8 10-22 06:30
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +50 $36 98¢ $49 +$13 10-01 18:34
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +50 $14 98¢ $49 +$35 10-12 17:37
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +52 $31 92¢ $48 +$16 10-21 19:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +40 $31 96¢ $39 +$8 10-21 21:26
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections? No +40 $36 96¢ $38 +$2 10-05 06:19
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +37 $21 85¢ $31 +$10 10-21 17:16
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +30 $20 98¢ $30 +$10 10-07 23:48
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +30 $26 96¢ $29 +$3 10-19 20:21
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? No +30 $22 86¢ $26 +$4 10-21 21:23
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +30 $5 80¢ $24 +$19 10-13 22:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +40 $18 59¢ $24 +$6 09-30 21:15
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +30 $26 77¢ $23 -$3 09-13 18:33
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? No +20 $14 100¢ $20 +$6 10-06 16:57
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? No +20 $8 99¢ $20 +$12 10-04 22:59
will the next google gemini pro model be released by october 31 2026 No +20 $9 98¢ $20 +$11 10-01 19:00
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +20 $18 97¢ $19 +$1 10-21 21:03
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +35 $12 50¢ $18 +$6 09-30 21:32
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +20 $14 86¢ $17 +$3 10-05 15:07
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +17 $16 93¢ $16 +$0 10-15 12:43
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +20 $15 80¢ $16 +$0 10-15 21:16
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%? Yes +16 $8 99¢ $15 +$8 10-20 05:17
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes +20 $18 76¢ $15 -$3 10-05 05:59
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No +20 $2 76¢ $15 +$13 09-30 22:01