Improbable-Appropriation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.71K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$81

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-14 09:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 100% +$0

Other

41% — —

Politics

8% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No		+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	06-14 09:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 62k on february 15	1	$157	157	+157	open	—	02-15 06:56
will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	1	$157	157	+157	open	—	02-11 05:56
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 180 199	1	$156	157	+157	open	—	02-03 09:49
will moonshot have the 2 ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$156	156	+156	open	—	01-31 03:43
bitcoin above 92k on january 26	1	$156	156	+156	open	—	01-26 09:41
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 21 2026	1	$156	156	+156	open	—	01-22 03:07
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 220 239	1	$155	155	+155	open	—	01-08 09:45
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 220 239	1	$155	155	+155	open	—	01-17 09:37
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 460 479	1	$150	150	+150	open	—	03-07 07:17
bitcoin above 58k on april 8	1	$147	147	+147	open	—	04-06 11:11
bitcoin above 78k on march 28	1	$145	145	+145	open	—	03-27 07:39
bitcoin above 78k on march 24	1	$145	145	+145	open	—	03-23 02:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15?	1	$142	142	+142	open	—	05-13 10:43
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10?	1	$142	142	+142	Yes	+$0	05-10 01:53
bitcoin above 70k on april 17	1	$142	142	+142	open	—	04-17 03:24
bitcoin above 80k on march 17	1	$140	140	+140	open	—	03-17 07:53
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 440 459	1	$140	140	+140	open	—	03-13 06:48
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 460 479	1	$140	140	+140	open	—	03-31 09:31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?	1	$140	140	+140	No	+$0	05-05 07:07
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	1	$140	140	+140	open	—	04-12 07:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?	1	$140	140	+140	open	—	05-17 06:12
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	1	$139	139	+139	open	—	04-23 06:44
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?	1	$133	133	+133	open	—	05-30 09:01
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31?	1	$133	133	+133	open	—	05-31 06:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	1	$130	130	+130	open	—	05-28 03:39
bitcoin above 60k on june 15 2026	1	$35	35	+35	open	—	06-14 09:54
bitcoin above 78k on march 13	1	$4	2,100	+2,100	open	—	03-13 06:48
bitcoin above 60k on march 7	1	$4	2,000	+2,000	open	—	03-07 07:16
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25?	1	$3	1,725	+1,725	open	—	05-25 03:04
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 380 399	1	$3	1,580	+1,580	open	—	04-17 03:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 09:54:45	bitcoin above 60k on june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x4b8eaa…
06-14 09:51:36	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2cac3d…
06-14 09:51:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xad449a…
06-14 09:50:55	ethereum above 1900 on june 14 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6cffdc…
05-31 06:05:31	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xd2cee9…
05-30 09:01:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0x20fd24…
05-28 03:39:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xc50031…
05-25 03:04:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	1,725	0¢	$3	0xe98ecd…
05-17 06:12:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x6ef526…
05-13 10:43:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0x53fec9…
05-10 01:53:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0xd9bf77…
05-05 07:07:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0xae8d08…
04-23 06:44:48	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0xe4e0a4…
04-23 06:44:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x42e8eb…
04-23 06:44:24	Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2f0990…
04-23 06:44:08	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb196c4…
04-17 03:24:46	bitcoin above 70k on april 17	Yes	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0x7c2d4d…
04-17 03:24:38	will turbotax file your tax return be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 17	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaacac6…
04-17 03:24:08	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 380 399	Yes	BUY	1,580	0¢	$3	0x8e09fd…
04-12 07:07:27	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0xe80568…
04-12 07:07:13	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbdfb89…
04-12 07:07:03	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa970ae…
04-12 07:06:51	will xrp dip to 1pt1 april 6 12	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa2e7ea…
04-06 11:11:57	bitcoin above 58k on april 8	Yes	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0x5d09e9…
03-31 09:31:27	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 460 479	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x509db3…
03-31 09:31:15	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf12f72…
03-31 09:31:07	elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 165 189	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe1b1a5…
03-31 09:30:53	will claude by anthropic be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbcc0c1…
03-27 07:39:53	bitcoin above 78k on march 28	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x6e092f…
03-23 02:52:23	bitcoin above 78k on march 24	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0xee756c…
03-23 02:52:13	will the bank of israel increase the bank of israel interest rate after the march decision	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc88eff…
03-23 02:52:01	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 320 339	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x1c9647…
03-17 07:53:53	bitcoin above 80k on march 17	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x56ff52…
03-13 06:48:37	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 440 459	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x0b1ff1…
03-13 06:48:29	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	Yes	BUY	2,100	0¢	$4	0x04417d…
03-07 07:17:29	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 460 479	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x996087…
03-07 07:17:09	will baidu have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 986	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3769c9…
03-07 07:16:59	bitcoin above 60k on march 7	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$4	0x93f953…
02-15 06:56:03	bitcoin above 62k on february 15	Yes	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0xb139e3…
02-11 05:56:37	will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	No	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0x607b97…
02-03 09:49:18	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 180 199	No	BUY	157	100¢	$156	0x0e0b99…
01-31 03:43:32	will moonshot have the 2 ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0xf94b42…
01-26 09:41:15	bitcoin above 92k on january 26	No	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0x60c41e…
01-22 03:07:16	will grok 4pt20 be released on january 21 2026	No	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0xbd60f6…
01-17 09:37:02	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 220 239	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0xa45f54…
01-08 09:45:09	elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 220 239	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0x7c930c…