Adored-Fortune-Pumpernickel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$491

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

47.2%

Resolved

264

Trades

428

lifetime

Volume

$2.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-15

last 10-29 12:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Other

62% 18% -$413

Crypto

25% 23% -$39

Politics

7% 40% +$11

Sports

6% 8% -$50

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes		+9	$2	10¢	$1	-$1	10-29 01:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$75	55	55	+0	No	+$35	10-26 00:41
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	4	$61	51	51	+0	Yes	+$13	06-19 02:21
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	2	$51	52	52	+0	Yes	+$41	07-07 17:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 22:35 UTC	3	$48	94	94	+0	Up	+$34	06-07 22:39
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	2	$48	43	43	+0	No	+$28	07-01 21:20
fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	3	$42	140	0	+140	Switzerland	-$42	07-07 22:48
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	2	$41	34	34	+0	Yes	+$21	06-15 00:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 23:00 UTC	4	$38	59	59	+0	Down	+$22	06-07 23:04
fifwc ury esp 2026 06 26 total 2pt5	2	$37	52	27	+26	Under	-$13	06-27 00:55
fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 total 3pt5	2	$33	24	24	+0	Over	+$13	06-26 19:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 22:30 UTC	2	$33	42	42	+0	Up	+$23	06-07 22:34
fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 5pt5	2	$32	28	28	+0	Over	+$13	06-14 18:27
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	2	$32	130	0	+130	Argentina	-$32	07-12 03:14
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	3	$30	70	0	+70	No	-$30	06-26 02:32
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	3	$30	121	0	+121	Spain	-$30	07-19 21:44
fifwc civ ecu 2026 06 14 total 0pt5	2	$30	28	28	+0	Over	$0	06-15 00:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 13:00 UTC	2	$28	59	59	+0	Up	+$8	07-02 13:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 15:10 UTC	5	$27	46	46	+0	Up	+$11	06-07 15:13
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	2	$25	20	20	+0	Yes	+$5	06-25 02:16
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	1	$25	38	0	+38	No	-$25	10-04 15:45
fifwc nor sen 2026 06 22 total 4pt5	2	$24	27	27	+0	Over	+$16	06-23 01:24
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$24	1,182	1,182	+0	No	-$2	06-15 15:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 23:00 UTC	7	$24	33	33	+0	Down	+$12	06-08 23:05
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	2	$23	17	17	+0	Yes	+$3	06-19 22:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 23:05 UTC	5	$21	148	31	+117	Up	-$7	06-08 23:08
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil?	2	$21	100	100	+0	No	+$1	06-24 22:50
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	4	$21	48	48	+0	Paraguay	+$11	06-29 23:27
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil?	2	$21	45	45	+0	Yes	+$11	06-24 23:26
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	2	$20	129	0	+129	No	-$20	07-07 00:34
Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-09?	1	$20	43	0	+43	No	-$20	08-09 21:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 12:08:01	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9404fe…
10-29 12:07:44	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x0f2a34…
10-29 12:07:26	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 30?	No	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x7940b3…
10-29 12:07:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x20b3b3…
10-29 11:50:41	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 29?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xd44b39…
10-29 02:17:58	Will Kamala Harris be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x2f50cc…
10-29 02:17:02	Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0xf45ac2…
10-29 01:41:50	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xcde370…
10-29 01:41:23	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 30?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x360b0e…
10-28 15:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9aa819…
10-28 01:46:17	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	42¢	$8	0xa3b974…
10-28 01:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x50076e…
10-27 23:53:59	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 29?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x819b91…
10-27 21:46:45	Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x49fcb1…
10-27 19:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x7a5dfa…
10-27 19:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x31a1b6…
10-27 19:45:21	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xd1657d…
10-27 15:38:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on October 27?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0x482f7b…
10-27 11:40:11	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 29?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xa69f68…
10-27 11:39:06	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 28?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x8acdd1…
10-27 10:21:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 27?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb9a816…
10-27 03:04:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x709a26…
10-27 02:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x1895a4…
10-27 02:51:53	Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xf58633…
10-27 00:27:35	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on October 27?	No	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x307a42…
10-27 00:27:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x93afc3…
10-27 00:06:29	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x73ff6b…
10-27 00:06:09	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0x36a894…
10-26 18:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$9	0xaf298b…
10-26 18:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xbcb02f…
10-26 17:51:24	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xf25ae5…
10-26 00:41:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x5c73f5…
10-04 15:45:37	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x4a861e…
10-04 02:27:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 02:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x165571…
10-04 02:23:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 02:20 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb948e4…
10-04 02:20:16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	55	36¢	$20	0x494702…
08-30 00:00:33	Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-29?	Yes	BUY	38	24¢	$9	0x17c755…
08-10 01:28:27	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 10?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x36f1e6…
08-10 01:27:36	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x170d3d…
08-09 21:03:55	Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x522e07…
08-09 20:42:19	Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x618aa4…
08-09 20:32:55	Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xd1ed96…
08-02 23:55:59	Will SC Internacional win on 2026-08-02?	Yes	SELL	14	92¢	$13	0x80edc4…
08-02 22:56:12	brco int cp 2026 08 02 btts	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x5c9d67…
08-02 22:56:00	brco int cp 2026 08 02 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x63030d…
08-02 22:54:30	Will SC Internacional win on 2026-08-02?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x232253…
07-19 21:44:45	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x7b0773…
07-19 21:32:25	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	299	2¢	$5	0xad07e6…
07-19 20:59:39	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xbe3e3a…
07-19 20:41:39	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x405d81…
07-19 20:19:51	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xca4742…
07-19 19:49:33	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0x591d28…
07-19 18:57:18	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	176	2¢	$3	0x47ad92…
07-19 18:56:25	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals alexis mac allister gte1	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x7e7bea…
07-19 18:54:55	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte3	Yes	BUY	125	2¢	$3	0x9359fd…
07-19 18:54:31	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x835bca…
07-12 03:14:13	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	101	26¢	$27	0x4fbfba…
07-12 02:42:50	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x62c4e1…
07-12 02:32:22	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	SELL	48	10¢	$5	0xcc5036…
07-12 01:11:59	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	33	18¢	$6	0xf68216…
07-12 00:58:58	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	125	2¢	$2	0xd0b811…
07-12 00:47:40	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 goals lionel messi gte3	Yes	BUY	64	5¢	$3	0x072461…
07-12 00:46:25	Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	182	1¢	$2	0xde1852…
07-12 00:45:40	Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x8a18eb…
07-12 00:45:11	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	48	14¢	$7	0x4f761e…
07-11 22:00:31	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xe627b7…
07-11 21:09:20	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte3	Yes	BUY	263	4¢	$10	0x9c99b6…
07-11 21:04:14	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte2	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x2ca381…
07-11 00:00:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x40dfd8…
07-11 00:00:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 23:55 UTC	Up	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0xd01c4e…
07-10 23:58:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 23:55 UTC	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xf389dd…
07-10 19:44:25	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	370	3¢	$10	0x07bcf2…
07-07 22:51:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x24f259…
07-07 22:48:46	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Colombia	BUY	54	13¢	$7	0x680118…
07-07 22:47:58	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Colombia	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xe1c1a7…
07-07 22:38:44	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Colombia	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xd7f64c…
07-07 17:57:38	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	SELL	52	89¢	$46	0x47c498…
07-07 17:45:02	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0xe780f9…
07-07 00:34:49	Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x193e49…
07-07 00:30:25	Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x08de54…
07-06 01:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xfe7a1b…
07-06 01:04:13	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	91	2¢	$2	0x898428…
07-06 01:02:43	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 goals raul jimenez gte2	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0xa4c9c9…
07-06 01:02:20	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 goals harry kane gte3	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x2d1513…
07-05 21:22:20	Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Norway?	Yes	SELL	34	28¢	$9	0x777730…
07-05 20:27:46	Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Norway?	Yes	BUY	34	9¢	$3	0xf8573d…
07-05 18:47:26	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	208	2¢	$4	0xd3f056…
07-05 18:47:01	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 goals antonio nusa gte2	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x4f5e9f…
07-05 18:46:50	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 goals matheus cunha gte2	Yes	BUY	31	6¢	$2	0x6518e5…
07-05 18:46:29	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 goals vinicius junior gte3	Yes	BUY	83	2¢	$2	0xf9b602…
07-05 18:46:25	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 goals erling haaland gte3	Yes	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x11588b…
07-05 17:56:11	Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Norway?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x5f4a07…
07-05 17:56:08	Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Norway?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x27f700…
07-04 00:22:59	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Cabo Verde	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0x7641e5…
07-04 00:19:46	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	62	12¢	$8	0xf62771…
07-03 23:30:50	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Cabo Verde	BUY	46	15¢	$7	0x233043…
07-03 21:55:13	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 goals lionel messi gte3	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xf34db3…
07-03 21:54:01	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	147	3¢	$5	0xf1dae0…
07-03 00:38:10	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Croatia	BUY	33	36¢	$12	0x40d10f…
07-03 00:15:31	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x439396…