Frightened-Oak — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

28.0%

Resolved

833

Trades

2,339

lifetime

Volume

$32.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$16

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-31 20:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 165 days

Categories

Other

70% 21% -$7,593

Sports

16% 29% -$3,075

Crypto

14% 33% -$139

Politics

0% 20% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 131 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	+404	$11	2¢	$7	-$4	07-29 18:07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+57	$12	8¢	$4	-$8	07-27 09:49
another nato article 4 invocation by december 31 2026 20260726214511854	Yes	+40	$10	9¢	$4	-$6	07-27 09:35
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	+31	$3	4¢	$1	-$2	09-05 07:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will FK Mornar Bar win on 2026-07-09?	2	$1.9K	1,970	1,970	+0	No	+$562	07-09 14:47
nba uta phx 2026 03 28	16	$1.1K	46,619	0	+46,619	Suns	-$1,135	03-29 03:09
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	7	$952	13,597	0	+13,597	No	-$952	06-26 20:07
fifwc par aus 2026 06 25 total 4pt5	11	$892	17,504	0	+17,504	Under	-$892	06-25 17:00
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	9	$881	22,804	0	+22,804	No	-$881	06-26 19:18
wta kostyuk paolini 2026 07 07	1	$842	2,808	0	+2,808	Marta Kostyuk	-$842	07-08 12:22
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	2	$800	13,333	0	+13,333	No	-$800	06-27 06:31
Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	32	$782	39,100	0	+39,100	Over	-$782	10-31 12:27
nba lac sac 2026 02 06 total 221pt5	2	$781	630	630	+0	Over	+$478	02-07 06:02
nba sas mil 2026 03 28	6	$702	35,211	0	+35,211	Spurs	-$702	03-28 20:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 06:45 UTC	3	$592	323	298	+25	Down	+$4	08-09 06:51
fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 spread away 1pt5	1	$546	1,707	0	+1,707	Scotland	-$546	06-19 19:10
nba lac mil 2026 03 29	6	$494	18,069	0	+18,069	Clippers	-$494	03-29 20:33
fifwc ury cvi 2026 06 21 total 4pt5	2	$470	5,226	0	+5,226	Under	-$470	06-21 09:17
argpn gue tri 2026 08 02 total 3pt5	47	$453	629	393	+236	Over	+$560	08-04 05:03
Getafe CF vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5	4	$439	1,996	0	+1,996	Under	-$439	09-20 13:31
South Korea vs. Nigeria	1	$402	2,118	0	+2,118	South Korea	+$1,716	09-04 12:00
spx up or down on july 13 2026	2	$400	202	202	+0	Down	+$0	07-13 17:02
fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 spread home 3pt5	2	$399	5,054	0	+5,054	Austria	-$399	06-22 03:58
wnba gsv conn 2026 08 26 total 151pt5	2	$387	789	0	+789	Over	+$402	08-26 14:41
Will SK Super Nova win on 2026-09-15?	4	$339	3,766	0	+3,766	No	-$339	09-15 15:15
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-09-02?	4	$300	1,263	0	+1,263	No	-$300	09-02 15:56
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-09-14?	1	$292	2,088	0	+2,088	No	-$292	09-14 17:48
Buducnost vs. Borac	20	$286	5,306	0	+5,306	Buducnost	-$286	10-31 18:44
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-09-10?	1	$286	1,362	0	+1,362	No	-$286	09-10 18:57
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	3	$283	922	0	+922	No	-$283	10-31 20:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 15:00 UTC	2	$267	290	0	+290	Down	+$23	08-09 15:04
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-02?	2	$260	211	211	+0	Yes	+$158	09-02 18:57
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 14:35 UTC	42	$253	810	0	+810	Down	-$253	08-12 14:39
nba bkn phi 2026 03 14 total 217pt5	1	$248	478	0	+478	Under	-$248	03-14 11:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 20:32:15	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x8860d9…
10-31 19:55:34	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	803	29¢	$233	0x164b47…
10-31 19:52:00	Buducnost vs. Borac: O/U 173.5	Under	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x6c07af…
10-31 19:51:28	Buducnost vs. Borac: O/U 173.5	Under	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x1fa039…
10-31 19:51:25	Buducnost vs. Borac: O/U 173.5	Under	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0x66b646…
10-31 19:51:25	Buducnost vs. Borac: O/U 173.5	Under	BUY	511	2¢	$10	0x5b7e31…
10-31 19:51:25	Buducnost vs. Borac: O/U 173.5	Under	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x570981…
10-31 19:51:25	Buducnost vs. Borac: O/U 173.5	Under	BUY	113	2¢	$2	0x33dd70…
10-31 19:51:25	Buducnost vs. Borac: O/U 173.5	Under	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0x0d46f2…
10-31 19:41:36	Spread: Trail Blazers (-28.5)	Trail Blazers	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xbc19e0…
10-31 18:44:39	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0x5b77c9…
10-31 18:09:16	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0xfb3b23…
10-31 18:09:16	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	1,729	4¢	$69	0xeddcd1…
10-31 18:09:15	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	195	4¢	$8	0x50fbf1…
10-31 18:09:15	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	83	4¢	$3	0x3f501c…
10-31 18:09:13	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	80	4¢	$3	0xd4ebac…
10-31 17:55:37	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x842f81…
10-31 17:55:03	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	147	10¢	$15	0x092696…
10-31 17:51:36	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0xc91be0…
10-31 17:51:09	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xc24c85…
10-31 17:50:55	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	106	10¢	$11	0xfdea05…
10-31 17:50:45	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0x0de1d1…
10-31 17:48:25	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xf85441…
10-31 17:47:46	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	79	11¢	$9	0x8fff3e…
10-31 17:27:34	Will AE Kifisia FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x901f7f…
10-31 17:18:00	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xac108e…
10-31 17:17:36	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xbc56b1…
10-31 17:16:46	Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x56ab11…
10-31 17:16:30	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xdc61ba…
10-31 17:15:19	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x18efee…
10-31 17:14:49	Buducnost vs. Borac	Borac	BUY	57	11¢	$6	0xc41f08…
10-31 17:13:43	Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	577	0¢	$1	0x3d59e0…
10-31 17:05:42	FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	290	2¢	$5	0xe5cefb…
10-31 17:05:03	Will Málaga CF win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9ccafd…
10-31 16:56:22	Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xd333f2…
10-31 16:56:10	Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	255	2¢	$5	0xec4d4d…
10-31 16:44:46	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$9	0x003356…
10-31 16:39:40	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	57	10¢	$6	0x5dd4cd…
10-31 16:39:28	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	43	10¢	$4	0x8d3b46…
10-31 15:41:21	Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x660349…
10-31 14:04:00	FC Augsburg vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	8	19¢	$2	0xedcda7…
10-31 13:58:58	Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Manchester United FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x0ba64d…
10-31 13:46:49	76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 215.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd5afae…
10-31 12:52:15	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks	Illawarra Hawks	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xc2711e…
10-31 12:27:51	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	31,883	2¢	$638	0xb54a70…
10-31 12:26:22	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x152671…
10-31 12:26:21	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	228	2¢	$5	0xcbfa36…
10-31 12:26:21	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x9a5bd7…
10-31 12:26:18	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	25	2¢	$1	0xef1bdd…
10-31 12:25:58	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x3028e3…
10-31 12:25:55	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x0076b6…
10-31 12:25:33	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	68	2¢	$1	0x6164c8…
10-31 12:25:31	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	1,100	2¢	$22	0xb57c5e…
10-31 12:25:31	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x33e105…
10-31 12:25:30	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	1,138	2¢	$23	0x64e787…
10-31 12:25:22	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x0eb3c8…
10-31 12:24:43	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	68	2¢	$1	0xd0ec55…
10-31 12:24:42	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	1,138	2¢	$23	0xc99595…
10-31 12:24:39	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	110	2¢	$2	0x7142c7…
10-31 12:24:36	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	68	2¢	$1	0xdcf8a8…
10-31 12:24:36	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	1,138	2¢	$23	0x6831b8…
10-31 12:23:37	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	110	2¢	$2	0x4347b5…
10-31 12:23:27	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb2bd20…
10-31 12:23:27	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	101	2¢	$2	0x7453cf…
10-31 12:23:27	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x409e19…
10-31 12:23:19	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x31e1b8…
10-31 12:22:54	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x1d41de…
10-31 12:22:22	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x581e9e…
10-31 12:22:12	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xdf097b…
10-31 12:22:04	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x7e1795…
10-31 12:21:57	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x18fdcd…
10-31 12:21:55	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	84	2¢	$2	0x955a04…
10-31 12:21:55	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x54837b…
10-31 12:21:52	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	911	2¢	$18	0xfa6585…
10-31 12:21:52	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	511	2¢	$10	0x904b84…
10-31 12:21:52	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks: O/U 192.5	Under	BUY	147	2¢	$3	0x313e3a…
10-31 10:30:21	Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	992	10¢	$99	0x0f9693…
10-31 10:30:19	Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0x457165…
10-31 10:04:48	Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xfa4961…
10-31 09:09:58	FC Adhyaksa Bekasi vs. PSPS Pekanbaru: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x09afe8…
10-31 05:58:46	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xead3bb…
10-30 21:22:28	SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x2f95ef…
10-30 20:06:43	Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x29ceae…
10-30 19:51:43	El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x78aac9…
10-30 19:11:16	Anadolu Efes vs. Panathinaikos	Panathinaikos	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x7691ca…
10-30 17:58:13	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0xe8a61e…
10-30 17:44:21	Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Partizan	Partizan	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xd8a49e…
10-30 13:53:43	Persebaya Surabaya vs. Persijap Jepara: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	54	90¢	$49	0xd601ac…
10-30 09:23:07	Pacers vs. Heat	Pacers	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x70b5ff…
10-30 09:20:45	Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks	Illawarra Hawks	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0xe3fcae…
10-30 09:18:54	Pacers vs. Heat	Pacers	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xff777d…
10-30 09:08:21	Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 210.5	Under	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x9fed34…
10-30 09:08:21	Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 210.5	Under	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0x96871c…
10-29 21:53:12	Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xb46851…
10-29 21:07:21	Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x79f5f7…
10-29 20:47:54	VPV Purmersteijn vs. VV Gemert: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xce4eaa…
10-29 13:44:38	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xa31033…
10-29 13:44:26	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	60	20¢	$12	0x72184c…
10-29 13:44:23	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	29	20¢	$6	0xda4189…
10-29 13:41:56	Phnom Penh Crown FC vs. Kitchee: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x6c7e9d…