Natural-Oasis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

Trades

321

lifetime

Volume

$41.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$128

Open exposure

$193

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-20 18:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

69% 100% +$11

Politics

23% — —

Crypto

7% 50% +$1

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+201	$192	96¢	$193	+$1	07-20 18:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	69	$8.5K	4,479	4,237	+243	No	+$9	03-11 03:02
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	24	$5.9K	3,121	3,078	+43	open	—	01-12 12:05
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	26	$3.0K	1,591	1,591	+0	Yes	+$3	03-16 04:56
will the dhs shutdown end between march 8 11 2026	2	$2.7K	1,330	1,330	+0	open	—	03-11 21:23
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$1.7K	846	846	+0	open	—	03-13 02:02
will usd fall to 1pt5m iranian rials by march 31 656 625 393	2	$1.6K	800	800	+0	open	—	03-10 10:37
will gas hit high 3pt50 by march 31	2	$1.3K	1,330	0	+1,330	open	—	03-10 10:37
will trump say biden during womens history month event	4	$1.2K	1,212	0	+1,212	open	—	03-13 05:45
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	2	$861	444	429	+15	open	—	03-02 14:45
will bitcoin dip to 40k in january 2026	3	$849	426	426	+0	open	—	01-10 17:03
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	3	$849	426	426	+0	open	—	01-08 14:26
will trump say good looking during womens history month event	3	$831	836	0	+836	open	—	03-13 02:07
us anti cartel strikeoperation on foreign soil by february 28 2026	2	$830	417	416	+0	open	—	03-03 05:12
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	6	$825	416	416	+0	open	—	03-01 04:31
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?	2	$825	414	414	+0	open	—	02-23 16:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	18	$724	370	370	+0	open	—	04-12 08:03
will trump say ayatollah or khamenei during ohio visit 837	5	$693	698	0	+698	open	—	03-12 04:23
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	6	$510	513	171	+342	open	—	06-21 04:09
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	2	$454	425	30	+395	open	—	01-04 12:08
will bitcoin dip to 45k in january 2026	2	$429	430	0	+430	open	—	01-21 00:01
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	1	$429	429	0	+429	open	—	03-03 05:10
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	3	$411	415	0	+415	open	—	02-28 08:49
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$370	186	186	+0	open	—	04-23 16:51
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	3	$369	187	187	+0	open	—	04-19 15:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$367	186	186	+0	open	—	05-06 10:24
will bitcoin dip to 40k in march 2026	2	$359	181	181	+0	open	—	03-20 13:42
will ethereum dip to 1000 in march 2026	4	$359	181	180	+1	open	—	03-24 13:41
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$358	180	180	+0	open	—	03-25 06:28
will donk be said during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	2	$356	182	182	+0	open	—	04-15 03:11
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$333	167	167	+0	open	—	05-24 03:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 18:56:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	201	96¢	$192	0x1d7d5a…
07-18 04:49:51	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x40a489…
07-10 12:33:13	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x44d607…
07-05 13:45:46	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x867a5f…
06-21 04:09:20	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	171	100¢	$170	0xc8b0ab…
06-21 04:07:17	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xbdd169…
06-10 20:53:42	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	171	99¢	$170	0x26e11b…
06-07 22:15:48	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	137	8¢	$11	0x13e60f…
06-07 22:15:45	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0xad2ba7…
06-06 09:54:10	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xa16189…
06-06 09:53:15	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x29d62b…
06-06 09:47:34	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	171	1¢	$2	0xeb9438…
06-04 21:01:18	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	86	98¢	$84	0x011d25…
06-04 21:01:16	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xcc9469…
06-04 21:01:16	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x054eb6…
06-04 12:46:28	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xd2385c…
06-04 12:45:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	136	1¢	$2	0x93409b…
06-01 13:22:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	136	98¢	$134	0x1622fe…
05-29 08:51:42	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xad7ced…
05-28 01:15:10	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	137	3¢	$4	0x2591c7…
05-27 12:39:27	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x6bd98c…
05-27 12:39:10	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xfaf4b4…
05-25 13:22:03	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x0a2659…
05-25 13:21:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf19a05…
05-25 13:20:50	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd54626…
05-25 13:20:29	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc25af5…
05-24 04:21:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	400	0¢	$0	0x6c2487…
05-24 04:15:34	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x63e1e0…
05-24 04:13:46	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	400	0¢	$0	0x3f70d4…
05-24 04:13:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0x00381a…
05-24 04:12:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	400	0¢	$0	0x1a542f…
05-24 04:11:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xcc7579…
05-24 04:01:41	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xaffff2…
05-24 03:57:47	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x52e046…
05-24 03:56:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	201	1¢	$2	0x4b8b84…
05-24 03:52:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	119	2¢	$2	0xe3f846…
05-24 03:48:13	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	78	2¢	$1	0x7fed5f…
05-24 03:47:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x71cf58…
05-24 03:47:24	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x2d2c81…
05-24 03:43:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4ca5cf…
05-24 03:42:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	SELL	97	100¢	$97	0xc24eba…
05-24 03:41:32	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x941335…
05-24 03:40:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x9cb7ec…
05-24 03:36:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xae70aa…
05-24 03:24:18	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	98	4¢	$4	0xc7f14f…
05-24 03:24:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x29ec8c…
05-24 03:23:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x716210…
05-24 03:21:59	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	167	100¢	$166	0x14af43…
05-24 03:20:53	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x76f9c1…
05-24 03:17:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x293513…
05-23 22:17:49	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	167	100¢	$166	0x33595f…
05-23 08:46:39	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	5,000	0¢	$15	0xf544f0…
05-23 04:50:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	4,914	0¢	$15	0xd01f1f…
05-23 04:42:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	86	0¢	$0	0xf89967…
05-23 04:21:13	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x015d43…
05-23 04:15:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x7ebc7e…
05-23 04:05:52	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$4	0x42d647…
05-23 04:04:35	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x2584ac…
05-23 03:59:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0xe050ab…
05-23 03:57:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	12,598	0¢	$25	0x3f1c9b…
05-23 03:53:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x3afe37…
05-23 03:52:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	1,745	0¢	$5	0xd07fec…
05-23 03:52:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$3	0xef1292…
05-23 03:51:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	755	0¢	$2	0xcda579…
05-23 03:46:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	3,500	0¢	$10	0xb4a218…
05-23 03:46:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0x6bb4c4…
05-23 03:46:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	200	1¢	$1	0x839097…
05-23 03:46:09	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0xac1d22…
05-23 03:46:04	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x670622…
05-23 03:45:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	101	1¢	$1	0x72f1da…
05-23 03:45:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x1b6210…
05-23 03:45:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	2,663	0¢	$11	0x6bbc70…
05-23 03:41:13	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	402	1¢	$2	0xbbb9ff…
05-23 03:41:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	54	1¢	$0	0xf77550…
05-23 03:40:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	1,605	1¢	$10	0xae9607…
05-23 03:39:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	7,000	0¢	$35	0x1e9479…
05-23 03:39:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	301	0¢	$2	0x3a0110…
05-23 03:37:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	1,605	0¢	$8	0x3b3caa…
05-22 13:34:55	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	SELL	77	96¢	$74	0x2b4765…
05-22 13:19:07	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	BUY	77	93¢	$72	0xdcc692…
05-22 08:22:40	Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x09048a…
05-21 05:17:04	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa6ffdd…
05-18 00:29:52	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x3d69de…
05-17 05:24:12	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xb50649…
05-17 05:23:42	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xe6a8c6…
05-15 10:40:18	Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x550fc8…
05-08 14:19:33	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x6ec658…
05-06 10:24:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	186	99¢	$184	0x416a9b…
05-02 21:20:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	186	98¢	$183	0xf18e98…
04-30 03:56:36	Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?	Yes	BUY	144	100¢	$144	0xca1586…
04-28 07:58:40	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x9221cd…
04-23 16:51:08	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	186	100¢	$185	0x42eb4b…
04-21 11:10:14	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	186	99¢	$184	0x6cedae…
04-19 15:52:00	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	187	99¢	$185	0x2000da…
04-17 18:54:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x61bdc5…
04-16 10:52:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x39275e…
04-15 13:46:36	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	179	99¢	$177	0xddced5…
04-15 03:11:54	will donk be said during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	No	SELL	182	98¢	$178	0x0239e0…
04-14 14:01:51	will donk be said during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	No	BUY	182	98¢	$178	0xe71c4a…
04-14 13:34:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$6	0x0b0e7b…