Afraid-Patent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.54K

Unrealized P&L

+$860

Hit rate

52.8%

Resolved

172

Trades

461

lifetime

Volume

$49.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$107

Open exposure

$1.32K

10 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 11-12 13:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Other

97% 41% -$2,426

Politics

1% 0% -$46

Tech

1% 0% $0

Crypto

1% 64% -$74

Sports

0% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+500	$300	84¢	$418	+$118	11-08 15:53
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+357	$250	90¢	$320	+$70	09-23 19:08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	+401	-$219	70¢	$280	+$499	11-05 08:05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	+221	$73	38¢	$83	+$10	11-10 22:41
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+107	-$296	56¢	$60	+$356	11-12 13:44
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?	Yes	+169	$100	30¢	$51	-$49	09-02 19:44
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+139	$50	36¢	$50	+$0	11-11 19:44
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+246	$50	18¢	$45	-$5	11-11 19:44
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	+208	$50	3¢	$7	-$43	11-10 10:48
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	No	+161	$100	3¢	$5	-$95	11-10 10:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	17	$2.8K	3,633	3,232	+401	open	—	11-05 08:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	5	$1.8K	1,482	1,482	+0	open	—	10-02 18:39
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	9	$1.8K	1,549	1,549	+0	Yes	+$62	09-11 09:16
will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	3	$1.4K	934	934	+0	No	+$302	06-28 20:28
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	2	$1.4K	943	943	+0	No	+$473	06-22 10:31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	4	$1.0K	787	787	+0	Yes	+$232	09-20 23:13
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	6	$1.0K	1,011	1,011	+0	Yes	-$289	09-14 11:55
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	6	$1.0K	1,373	1,266	+107	open	—	11-12 13:44
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	6	$946	1,962	1,324	+637	Yes	+$393	09-28 15:06
will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	2	$870	476	476	+0	No	+$34	06-23 19:45
will wti reach 85 in august 2026	5	$806	845	845	+0	Yes	+$6	08-17 19:58
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	2	$804	635	635	+0	Yes	+$4	09-06 19:43
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	2	$800	746	746	+0	Yes	+$400	09-25 07:52
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	10	$798	790	790	+0	No	-$139	08-20 13:07
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	6	$750	1,227	0	+1,227	Yes	+$477	09-08 19:14
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	2	$694	534	534	+0	No	-$203	06-23 21:39
No one announced as next James Bond?	6	$628	824	824	+0	open	—	09-12 22:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	4	$617	443	443	+0	No	+$17	09-26 23:11
will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	2	$599	397	397	+0	No	+$99	09-21 21:50
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	3	$598	379	379	+0	Yes	+$99	10-05 11:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$593	366	366	+0	Yes	-$7	10-13 23:12
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	5	$570	1,381	0	+1,381	No	-$570	09-07 21:03
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?	3	$549	445	445	+0	open	—	11-11 14:09
Netherlands to win the second half?	3	$531	533	533	+0	No	-$269	06-26 00:42
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	2	$500	977	0	+977	Yes	+$477	09-14 12:31
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	2	$498	688	688	+0	No	+$98	09-11 12:49
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	5	$487	1,137	1,137	+0	No	-$97	10-01 20:54
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	3	$479	384	384	+0	No	-$41	09-30 12:27
will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	3	$450	724	0	+724	No	+$274	07-10 08:41
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	4	$437	490	490	+0	No	-$163	07-09 21:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 13:44:25	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	107	56¢	$60	0x5ba70b…
11-12 13:43:48	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x0dbb7a…
11-12 13:43:16	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	222	94¢	$209	0xb617f3…
11-11 23:59:16	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x46cba2…
11-11 23:37:45	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0x8b5616…
11-11 19:44:28	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0x23e4a4…
11-11 19:44:24	Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	246	20¢	$50	0x103182…
11-11 19:39:06	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x5eb6f1…
11-11 14:09:33	Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	445	97¢	$429	0xb51c4e…
11-10 22:41:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	221	33¢	$73	0x9efeb1…
11-10 22:39:42	Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	216	32¢	$70	0x766f51…
11-10 22:37:36	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	No	SELL	147	97¢	$143	0x9f70f6…
11-10 10:48:49	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	147	85¢	$125	0x1f4ed4…
11-10 10:48:30	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0x444081…
11-10 10:48:12	Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	No	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x8d6718…
11-10 10:42:51	Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	228	22¢	$50	0x0cfe68…
11-08 15:53:06	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	500	60¢	$300	0xd55ee3…
11-08 15:52:30	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	1,266	51¢	$650	0xfa2383…
11-05 08:05:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	57¢	$13	0x734d58…
10-29 23:11:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	378	61¢	$230	0xec3403…
10-27 15:49:11	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	1,005	25¢	$250	0xac4930…
10-27 15:48:50	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	750	63¢	$476	0x52526c…
10-24 11:32:39	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in October?	Yes	SELL	161	4¢	$6	0x7fb81a…
10-19 12:01:39	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0xdfc7aa…
10-14 19:05:12	will xagusd dip to 52 in october 2026	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x1b813f…
10-14 10:13:53	will xauusd reach 4200 in october 2026 from october 13	Yes	BUY	267	75¢	$200	0x4431a7…
10-13 23:12:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	366	80¢	$293	0x05874f…
10-12 22:37:33	will xauusd reach 4200 in october 2026 from october 12	Yes	BUY	49	86¢	$42	0x0140f0…
10-12 00:43:29	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	180	17¢	$30	0x9a3514…
10-12 00:42:54	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in October?	No	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x65c7ae…
10-12 00:41:59	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October?	Yes	SELL	122	100¢	$122	0x3f5ac1…
10-11 21:13:46	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October?	Yes	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x95ebb9…
10-11 21:12:20	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in October?	No	SELL	255	41¢	$105	0xedf335…
10-09 10:14:25	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xdaed8b…
10-07 08:53:20	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0xc4c14a…
10-07 08:43:44	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in October?	No	BUY	62	65¢	$40	0x2146e5…
10-07 08:41:47	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xdde17f…
10-06 20:01:59	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	No	BUY	143	60¢	$86	0xee05da…
10-06 17:03:23	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on October 6?	No	SELL	67	61¢	$41	0xcfaff8…
10-06 16:57:17	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on October 6?	No	BUY	67	74¢	$50	0x4741fb…
10-06 14:59:54	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x7cb7c0…
10-06 14:49:45	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	284	75¢	$213	0xd5c887…
10-06 13:42:46	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in October?	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x00d354…
10-06 13:42:25	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in October?	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x60638f…
10-06 13:34:33	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	240	19¢	$46	0x992811…
10-06 13:34:28	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	222	22¢	$50	0xd84aa9…
10-06 13:34:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	237	24¢	$57	0x236d10…
10-06 11:58:31	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	27¢	$60	0xe601e6…
10-06 07:58:01	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0xef6c0d…
10-06 06:18:57	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	216	37¢	$80	0xb884b0…
10-06 06:18:00	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	335	34¢	$114	0x0eab94…
10-06 06:17:54	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	177	62¢	$110	0x78943b…
10-05 21:51:02	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	177	22¢	$39	0x3a4cb1…
10-05 21:46:49	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	295	14¢	$41	0x24bab4…
10-05 11:51:13	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x01ae4f…
10-05 11:50:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xaa07e7…
10-05 11:49:08	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in October?	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x5811c8…
10-05 11:48:52	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in October?	No	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x7948db…
10-05 11:47:41	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	303	99¢	$300	0x4f9f24…
10-04 20:46:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	31¢	$40	0x79b7f7…
10-04 20:46:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	64¢	$49	0xef28ac…
10-04 19:34:55	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	379	66¢	$249	0x25e094…
10-04 19:34:04	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	365	4¢	$16	0x3ec4e5…
10-04 18:24:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	25¢	$60	0xd996f5…
10-04 17:15:46	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	No	BUY	142	42¢	$60	0x45893f…
10-04 10:55:52	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xb62e2e…
10-04 10:55:13	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	822	3¢	$27	0x22ce76…
10-03 20:52:29	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	822	12¢	$100	0xf6a776…
10-03 05:26:59	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	59¢	$100	0xb0982e…
10-02 19:28:15	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	27¢	$50	0x23b03c…
10-02 18:43:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	366	82¢	$300	0xeb2e52…
10-02 18:41:06	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	335	30¢	$100	0xc31cfe…
10-02 18:39:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	982	79¢	$775	0x61d682…
10-02 18:39:47	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	389	11¢	$41	0x407611…
10-01 23:45:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	283	53¢	$150	0x3d6d0f…
10-01 23:44:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	259	29¢	$75	0x024646…
10-01 20:54:32	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	699	13¢	$90	0x024a44…
10-01 11:28:21	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in October?	Yes	BUY	32	60¢	$19	0xb95ccf…
10-01 11:28:00	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in October?	No	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x73221e…
10-01 11:27:38	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in October?	No	BUY	101	60¢	$60	0x8b38d8…
10-01 11:24:42	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in October?	Yes	BUY	135	37¢	$50	0x70e246…
10-01 11:24:29	will xauusd reach 4300 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x1462b1…
10-01 11:24:12	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	No	BUY	191	52¢	$100	0xace9eb…
09-30 23:06:30	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	462	22¢	$100	0xce20b3…
09-30 22:27:14	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	3¢	$9	0xbd0143…
09-30 20:21:03	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	365	27¢	$100	0x5c363b…
09-30 20:20:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	389	26¢	$100	0xdd0abe…
09-30 12:27:26	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	No	SELL	384	57¢	$219	0xebbfaf…
09-30 08:49:57	will xagusd reach 62 in september 2026	No	BUY	98	61¢	$60	0x1b67ee…
09-29 23:22:06	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0x398f02…
09-29 22:22:30	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	392	9¢	$37	0xcc93a9…
09-29 21:16:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	259	58¢	$150	0xa58232…
09-29 20:25:26	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	533	28¢	$150	0x9f2c35…
09-29 18:21:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	690	43¢	$300	0xa93415…
09-29 18:19:32	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	No	BUY	368	68¢	$250	0x0afc2c…
09-29 18:16:06	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xa0afdc…
09-29 17:58:56	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	335	65¢	$216	0x3d946e…
09-29 16:58:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	438	24¢	$105	0x805f1b…
09-29 15:21:48	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	297	11¢	$33	0x6ede44…
09-29 11:59:36	will wti dip to 90 in september 2026 from september 23	No	SELL	122	23¢	$28	0x7dc966…