Pertinent-Insolence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

75.2%

Resolved

351

Trades

771

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-09 01:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

73% 78% +$1

Crypto

20% 90% +$0

Politics

5% 50% $0

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		+2	$2	100¢	$2	+$0	09-25 12:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on July 6?	6	$142	71	71	+0	No	+$0	07-06 18:32
Will Joe Lester be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?	7	$114	57	57	+0	No	$0	05-19 06:53
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 15?	4	$103	51	51	+0	No	$0	05-15 06:10
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	4	$100	50	50	+0	No	+$0	06-29 22:21
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 27?	6	$94	47	47	+0	No	$0	06-27 02:02
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 17?	3	$92	46	46	+0	No	+$0	05-17 16:50
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on July 1?	4	$81	41	41	+0	No	$0	07-01 16:22
will solana reach 100 june 29 july 5 2026	5	$77	38	38	+0	No	+$0	07-05 04:01
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	5	$76	38	38	+0	No	+$0	07-11 15:38
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be between 90 and 95?	4	$72	36	36	+0	No	$0	05-22 15:01
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 29?	4	$67	33	33	+0	No	+$0	05-29 11:11
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$66	33	33	+0	Yes	$0	05-20 03:15
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 27?	5	$63	32	32	+0	No	+$0	05-27 10:30
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	4	$61	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-13 08:44
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 2?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-02 07:40
ethereum above 1200 on july 2 2026	2	$59	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	07-01 21:48
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on June 26?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	06-25 23:19
ethereum above 1400 on june 27 2026	2	$58	29	29	+0	Yes	$0	06-27 07:13
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on July 1?	2	$58	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	07-01 12:24
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 10?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-09 23:15
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 6?	6	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-06 08:25
Will Robert Neuman win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-17 22:49
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on June 1?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-01 17:49
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-26 06:07
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 2?	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-02 06:45
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 25?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	06-25 16:34
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or below on July 6?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-05 21:12
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-18 16:26
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 11?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-11 00:54
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 16?	3	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-16 01:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 01:11:29	Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6f23c9…
10-06 08:58:24	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x8d6a7a…
10-06 08:57:30	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe90d3c…
10-05 10:18:56	Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x7e4609…
10-05 10:18:01	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x5a0ccc…
10-02 15:17:26	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xafb745…
09-25 12:18:09	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x41f8a0…
09-21 10:34:47	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x02de21…
09-19 13:08:48	Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2df602…
09-13 06:45:33	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb55fe0…
09-11 14:45:18	Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xcfdde9…
09-11 14:44:06	Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xa59c5d…
09-07 20:58:46	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x672287…
08-30 14:16:33	Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1e5485…
08-27 07:34:13	Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf4c3c9…
08-25 03:46:27	Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xeaff23…
08-24 09:45:40	Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xb79578…
08-24 09:44:36	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x621bd4…
08-24 09:43:33	Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa0b7f3…
08-24 09:42:30	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x4705c0…
08-23 10:41:13	Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xbba349…
08-12 15:09:57	Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x85d283…
08-10 04:51:40	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6f7180…
07-31 16:50:38	Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x108994…
07-25 06:54:13	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc2b1a5…
07-15 19:37:41	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 15?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xbc347e…
07-15 19:36:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 15?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x0ae100…
07-14 15:38:59	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 15?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa459de…
07-14 13:51:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 15?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xaf62fa…
07-14 12:18:10	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on July 15?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xddd724…
07-14 07:02:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 14?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x7f17d9…
07-14 06:53:25	bitcoin above 58k on july 14 2026	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x08fba4…
07-14 06:53:23	bitcoin above 58k on july 14 2026	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x88a744…
07-14 06:53:22	bitcoin above 58k on july 14 2026	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd2fb31…
07-14 06:16:16	ethereum above 1600 on july 14 2026	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xbbdea1…
07-14 05:32:07	bitcoin above 58k on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$16	0xbda226…
07-14 05:21:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 14?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x883b76…
07-13 23:07:28	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 13?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x26c068…
07-13 23:05:17	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 13?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xb0d0c4…
07-13 19:46:56	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 13?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x4ded4d…
07-13 16:08:49	ethereum above 1600 on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x568789…
07-13 15:02:13	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 14?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xcd88ae…
07-13 14:34:53	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on July 13?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x9b9f69…
07-13 14:15:10	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 14?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xdeb680…
07-13 13:33:22	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xff5540…
07-13 11:29:04	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 14?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd82f9f…
07-13 09:29:31	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x16d19d…
07-13 09:00:31	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 14?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9f0343…
07-13 08:44:46	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x033910…
07-13 05:53:32	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 13?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0xa994c1…
07-13 03:56:47	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on July 13?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x40b6f2…
07-13 03:16:17	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xf3e99d…
07-13 02:21:20	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd7161e…
07-13 01:56:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x794239…
07-13 01:56:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x019b07…
07-13 01:56:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa90f4b…
07-12 22:42:31	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x58bbb5…
07-12 16:58:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x7f0980…
07-12 16:40:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 13?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$10	0x368b88…
07-12 14:27:49	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 13?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x036e06…
07-12 11:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 13?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0xfdb3d4…
07-12 10:56:29	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 12?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x6e8702…
07-12 10:13:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on July 13?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xbad829…
07-12 10:12:50	bitcoin above 70k on july 13 2026	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x2804e7…
07-12 09:54:31	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 79°F or below on July 13?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x94b15c…
07-12 08:02:35	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 79°F or below on July 13?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x074e1e…
07-12 05:25:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on July 13?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x002dc3…
07-12 03:20:13	bitcoin above 70k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x2a388b…
07-12 00:08:56	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 12?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x3b6334…
07-12 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 12?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xde7e3e…
07-11 22:03:17	will bitcoin reach 72k july 6 12 2026	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6fb86c…
07-11 21:33:49	will bitcoin reach 72k july 6 12 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x9e09b4…
07-11 19:29:08	will bitcoin reach 72k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x021224…
07-11 16:02:19	Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x8c2782…
07-11 15:47:38	ethereum above 2000 on july 12 2026	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xf58bf2…
07-11 15:40:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 11?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xf84d3f…
07-11 15:38:32	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xfbcc01…
07-11 15:13:37	Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x629d4a…
07-11 14:56:56	bitcoin above 60k on july 12 2026	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xf47559…
07-11 14:20:10	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xfe0f6f…
07-11 11:20:25	ethereum above 2000 on july 12 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x10c80a…
07-11 08:55:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 11?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x6cf981…
07-11 06:30:55	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 12?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc25802…
07-11 05:03:55	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 41°C or higher on July 11?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x8029f1…
07-11 04:53:32	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x8df01e…
07-11 04:47:17	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x5007fd…
07-11 04:38:44	bitcoin above 60k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0xcd2813…
07-11 00:56:16	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x813f8e…
07-11 00:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 11?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x416607…
07-11 00:17:50	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x839dad…
07-10 22:17:28	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb3cc8a…
07-10 19:56:19	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 41°C or higher on July 11?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x97688e…
07-10 17:38:59	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 11?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x0cd21c…
07-10 15:41:50	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$9	0xbfe78b…
07-10 15:38:55	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0080e9…
07-10 09:53:59	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 11?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$19	0xf6ec94…
07-10 09:42:10	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 11?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0x6ff5b2…
07-10 06:58:29	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x087bc8…
07-10 05:21:20	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 24°C or below on July 11?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xa90666…
07-10 05:20:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 24°C or below on July 11?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xc7eee8…