Content-Orchid — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.1%

Resolved

Trades

318

lifetime

Volume

$65.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$205

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-30 15:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Politics

44% 89% +$24

Other

42% 64% +$36

Crypto

14% 88% -$83

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	31	$8.0K	4,074	4,074	+0	No	+$6	02-06 15:17
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	12	$6.7K	3,426	3,426	+0	No	-$1	02-06 10:52
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	38	$6.2K	3,202	3,202	+0	Yes	+$5	02-02 12:31
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	8	$3.5K	1,745	1,745	+0	Yes	+$1	01-31 13:32
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	16	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$1	02-08 14:06
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	5	$2.4K	1,185	1,185	+0	No	-$1	02-05 08:51
us strikes iran by february 3 2026	5	$2.3K	1,180	1,180	+0	No	+$1	02-03 15:05
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	4	$2.3K	1,172	1,172	+0	No	+$1	02-02 15:51
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	10	$2.3K	1,156	1,156	+0	Yes	-$1	01-26 11:37
bitcoin above 90k on january 26	3	$1.7K	1,152	575	+577	No	+$3	01-26 16:19
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	8	$1.6K	830	830	+0	No	+$4	07-25 10:43
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	10	$1.6K	807	807	+0	No	+$2	02-12 14:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	13	$1.5K	799	799	+0	No	+$12	04-23 08:08
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	10	$1.2K	610	610	+0	No	+$1	02-13 00:33
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	8	$1.2K	598	598	+0	No	+$0	02-07 16:03
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	2	$1.2K	592	592	+0	No	+$1	02-04 20:13
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	5	$1.1K	620	620	+0	open	—	07-05 00:40
putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	9	$1.0K	520	520	+0	No	+$2	07-30 01:41
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	5	$799	409	409	+0	No	+$2	02-19 07:23
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	4	$785	401	401	+0	No	+$1	02-09 13:30
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	6	$698	357	357	+0	No	+$3	06-04 15:14
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	4	$640	450	240	+210	No	+$7	03-28 14:32
fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 total 8pt5	4	$628	320	320	+0	Under	+$9	06-21 17:32
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	10	$609	1,522	1,522	-0	open	—	08-12 19:02
bitcoin above 74k on february 6	1	$597	599	0	+599	No	+$2	02-06 16:19
bitcoin above 64k on july 21 2026	2	$596	300	300	+0	Yes	+$3	07-21 13:57
bitcoin above 80k on february 3	2	$586	589	0	+589	No	+$3	02-03 16:12
bitcoin above 82k on february 2	1	$585	587	0	+587	No	+$2	02-02 16:13
bitcoin above 88k on january 29	1	$581	581	0	+581	No	+$1	01-29 16:18
bitcoin above 88k on january 28	1	$579	580	0	+580	Yes	+$1	01-28 16:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 15:16:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30?	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x11751e…
10-30 13:35:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30?	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x46f9ab…
10-30 07:30:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30?	No	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x5de5f2…
09-15 16:54:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x74c876…
09-11 12:37:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0xa3579d…
08-12 19:02:13	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	376	20¢	$75	0x30f29e…
08-12 19:00:09	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	782	20¢	$156	0x750b92…
08-12 18:53:12	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	20¢	$23	0xb767a1…
08-12 18:49:06	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x4f63c9…
08-12 18:46:43	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xd76cdc…
08-12 18:46:19	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x405e71…
08-12 18:46:18	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	20¢	$11	0xd1106d…
08-12 18:46:15	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x1625f8…
08-12 14:44:52	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	20¢	$32	0x90eeed…
08-12 08:25:31	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,522	20¢	$304	0xe20aeb…
08-04 13:24:48	bitcoin above 62k on august 4 2026	No	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0x8c938d…
08-04 11:55:05	bitcoin above 62k on august 4 2026	No	BUY	247	1¢	$2	0xdde921…
08-04 11:51:00	bitcoin above 62k on august 4 2026	No	BUY	33	1¢	$0	0xf40eb3…
08-04 11:50:09	bitcoin above 62k on august 4 2026	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xf8905b…
07-31 19:45:14	bitcoin above 66k on august 1 2026	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xf38df4…
07-31 19:45:11	bitcoin above 66k on august 1 2026	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x2375dc…
07-31 19:44:44	bitcoin above 66k on august 1 2026	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x06713d…
07-30 01:41:38	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	208	99¢	$205	0x0001bc…
07-30 01:36:05	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x48134f…
07-29 20:37:15	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	142	99¢	$140	0x9ad098…
07-26 21:26:51	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	56	98¢	$56	0x17a20e…
07-26 16:07:04	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	304	98¢	$298	0x5b1900…
07-25 11:22:10	bitcoin above 62k on july 25 2026	Yes	BUY	350	100¢	$349	0x3202fc…
07-25 10:43:42	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	360	97¢	$348	0xedb22c…
07-21 20:53:03	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	242	96¢	$233	0xa5da80…
07-21 18:16:45	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0x837707…
07-21 17:30:37	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	81	96¢	$78	0xb6a18a…
07-21 13:57:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 21?	Yes	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0xd0a3fa…
07-21 11:09:48	bitcoin above 64k on july 21 2026	Yes	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x52403f…
07-20 15:13:19	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	320	97¢	$311	0x6593c9…
07-11 18:32:22	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x5e008e…
07-11 10:18:11	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	320	97¢	$309	0xdd2b2e…
07-11 05:30:38	bitcoin above 66k on july 11 2026	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0xed9109…
07-10 17:43:56	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x7a294a…
07-10 11:51:55	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x435242…
07-10 11:21:47	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	149	98¢	$147	0xc905d4…
07-10 11:10:05	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0xa0037a…
07-10 11:05:43	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	145	99¢	$144	0x9a21f9…
07-09 19:45:20	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x896d58…
07-09 18:44:28	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	58	98¢	$56	0x34f1e1…
07-07 22:11:02	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	150	98¢	$147	0x464127…
07-05 12:32:10	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xc30a90…
07-05 00:40:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	230	90¢	$207	0xa5c82c…
07-03 11:12:59	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	230	88¢	$202	0xbd8f0d…
07-02 15:51:19	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	150	97¢	$146	0x8a586b…
07-02 13:32:16	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	390	89¢	$347	0x5ad21f…
06-30 11:57:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	160	86¢	$138	0xd75a66…
06-27 05:58:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	230	86¢	$198	0xfbcad9…
06-23 17:38:04	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 2pt5	Uzbekistan	BUY	17	27¢	$5	0xdd31d2…
06-23 17:37:46	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 2pt5	Uzbekistan	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x9b18dc…
06-23 17:37:46	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 2pt5	Uzbekistan	BUY	9	27¢	$3	0x03bfab…
06-23 17:11:04	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	320	97¢	$310	0x9af333…
06-21 17:32:40	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 total 8pt5	Under	SELL	320	100¢	$319	0xd98356…
06-21 17:11:41	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	216	97¢	$209	0x44ba0d…
06-21 17:11:37	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xdde602…
06-21 17:11:17	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x8e1637…
06-14 13:58:13	Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	330	94¢	$311	0x9f8ab3…
06-13 20:43:36	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 btts	Yes	BUY	60	47¢	$28	0x8d071b…
06-13 20:27:12	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	SELL	300	93¢	$279	0xdad823…
06-13 19:05:03	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	300	84¢	$252	0x632ca7…
06-10 14:17:52	bitcoin above 64k on june 10 2026	No	SELL	250	100¢	$249	0x6e60a9…
06-10 12:30:39	bitcoin above 64k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	250	99¢	$248	0x19d71d…
06-08 12:51:06	bitcoin above 66k on june 8 2026	No	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0x3037b9…
06-06 15:23:12	bitcoin above 62k on june 6 2026 188	No	SELL	124	100¢	$124	0x105e61…
06-06 14:25:42	bitcoin above 62k on june 6 2026 188	No	SELL	124	99¢	$123	0x153328…
06-06 13:45:06	bitcoin above 62k on june 6 2026 188	No	BUY	249	94¢	$234	0x2ab68d…
06-04 22:13:52	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xfe4971…
06-04 20:35:40	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x101ce7…
06-04 20:34:55	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7d824f…
06-04 19:47:45	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8ea7d4…
06-04 19:44:48	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x35713a…
06-04 19:08:57	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	76	99¢	$75	0x19eb7a…
06-04 17:04:03	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x35430a…
06-04 15:45:06	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc79b39…
06-04 15:14:33	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	127	99¢	$125	0x9b11ed…
05-22 15:59:27	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	107	98¢	$105	0xb9b6ea…
05-22 13:53:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xae8a77…
05-22 13:02:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0xe44204…
05-22 07:45:36	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	98¢	$108	0x680737…
05-20 17:34:45	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	115	99¢	$113	0xb8bfe0…
05-11 09:20:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	120	98¢	$118	0xd4911d…
05-10 07:02:33	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	115	97¢	$112	0x90da5e…
05-09 06:23:30	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	230	97¢	$222	0x2dbabc…
05-07 15:33:32	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x6cd29c…
05-07 15:22:45	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0x0f4120…
05-07 15:07:03	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	SELL	79	99¢	$78	0x88ba2a…
05-07 14:57:49	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	SELL	74	99¢	$73	0x6fa22b…
04-23 08:08:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0x7f6ba3…
04-22 05:36:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	114	99¢	$114	0x5d2f69…
04-10 13:51:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	229	97¢	$222	0x07eaa4…
04-09 14:39:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	220	98¢	$216	0x67f420…
04-07 19:30:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	110	95¢	$105	0x3bcc04…
04-06 19:09:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x9242ec…
04-06 19:09:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	61	97¢	$59	0x2eb72c…
04-06 19:09:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x24e5b2…