Chubby-Skate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

98.4%

Resolved

Trades

266

lifetime

Volume

$10.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-18

last 06-22 09:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

65% — —

Politics

31% 25% $-1

Sports

2% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes		+29	$2	6¢	$2	$-0	06-22 09:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	19	$921	677	490	+187	No	+$0	05-08 10:17
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	11	$515	323	323	+0	open	—	04-11 16:04
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	8	$467	357	357	+0	open	—	04-04 22:57
will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$446	236	236	+0	open	—	04-08 16:41
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	14	$375	459	459	+0	open	—	04-26 23:23
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 240 259	8	$265	601	601	+0	open	—	03-19 01:49
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	5	$238	141	141	+0	open	—	03-19 08:54
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	4	$228	118	118	+0	open	—	04-10 21:19
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$228	117	117	+0	open	—	04-10 21:06
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by march 31 117 352	2	$226	116	116	+0	open	—	03-26 09:15
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 380 399	2	$225	115	114	+1	open	—	03-19 17:35
will fabiano caruana win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	2	$224	117	117	+0	open	—	04-08 11:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	7	$223	314	314	+0	open	—	05-11 04:02
will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$221	118	118	+0	open	—	04-12 17:50
will michigan state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$220	113	113	+0	open	—	03-27 15:58
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 180 199	2	$219	114	114	+0	open	—	03-30 23:28
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	2	$219	111	111	+0	open	—	03-31 15:01
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	7	$215	373	373	+0	open	—	04-14 08:55
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 440 459	2	$212	111	111	+0	open	—	03-20 15:07
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	4	$210	110	110	+0	open	—	03-23 21:43
will viktor hovland win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$209	251	251	+0	open	—	04-08 23:12
will solana dip to 70 in march 2026	3	$205	109	109	+0	open	—	03-26 12:38
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	2	$204	105	105	+0	open	—	04-25 20:09
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	2	$203	104	104	+0	open	—	04-26 07:35
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	2	$203	104	104	+0	open	—	04-20 23:25
will matt fitzpatrick win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$203	106	106	+0	open	—	04-09 11:00
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	2	$202	106	106	+0	open	—	04-25 11:13
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$202	104	104	+0	open	—	04-24 12:21
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	2	$201	102	102	+0	open	—	04-23 14:58
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	2	$201	102	102	+0	open	—	04-02 20:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 09:30:16	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	29	6¢	$2	0x23833a…
06-08 08:26:06	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x10e3b1…
06-08 08:26:06	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x01fd76…
05-19 12:17:31	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0xcf5995…
05-19 05:23:58	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	37	95¢	$35	0xb36d27…
05-18 22:25:12	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xa9ece5…
05-13 02:02:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	1¢	$3	0x14a4cf…
05-13 00:41:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$0	0xfb5f42…
05-13 00:41:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	2¢	$1	0x655a24…
05-13 00:41:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	2¢	$1	0x4dcf78…
05-12 15:02:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	73	95¢	$69	0xedbffa…
05-12 15:02:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0x3ddd62…
05-12 13:35:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	99	95¢	$94	0xe07709…
05-12 04:17:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	3¢	$2	0xfd7b8c…
05-12 04:17:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	3¢	$1	0xebc9a4…
05-12 04:17:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	3¢	$3	0x14e78a…
05-12 01:26:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	193	3¢	$6	0xed82c3…
05-11 04:02:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	4¢	$5	0xb85a0d…
05-11 02:09:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	4¢	$2	0x46b5cd…
05-11 02:09:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	4¢	$3	0x2f2019…
05-09 01:21:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	348	1¢	$3	0xd6fc49…
05-08 21:17:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	348	1¢	$3	0x1f31be…
05-08 10:17:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	87	98¢	$85	0x437de5…
05-08 06:42:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	87	97¢	$84	0xf67a44…
05-08 06:42:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4ab950…
05-08 02:52:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	88	97¢	$85	0xd74151…
05-08 01:01:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	14	97¢	$14	0xe6e0c4…
05-08 01:01:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	83	97¢	$81	0x0f4997…
05-07 23:33:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	97	97¢	$94	0x466575…
05-07 09:47:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	112	84¢	$94	0x278688…
05-07 08:43:01	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	112	93¢	$104	0xa64e86…
05-07 03:13:00	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4b24d3…
05-07 02:04:17	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7d63a3…
05-06 18:35:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	166	5¢	$9	0xc6c11d…
05-06 15:13:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	166	5¢	$8	0x2024c4…
05-06 07:35:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	3¢	$2	0x83b0d6…
05-06 07:35:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0x689a9e…
05-06 05:02:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xc8f8a5…
05-06 05:02:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x894b6a…
05-05 21:51:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$40	0x844b7a…
05-05 21:51:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0x31c040…
05-05 20:16:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x864d3b…
05-05 20:16:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	68	98¢	$67	0x22eb7a…
05-05 14:44:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	4¢	$4	0x6fb3e9…
05-05 11:43:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	3¢	$4	0x1ad5f6…
05-05 11:00:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	107	96¢	$103	0x6bc962…
05-05 08:55:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	107	96¢	$103	0x7f94a8…
05-04 00:06:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd416d9…
05-04 00:06:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	95	92¢	$87	0xa5274b…
05-03 19:49:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	198	1¢	$3	0xaef6ea…
05-03 16:44:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	2¢	$3	0x60a159…
05-03 14:57:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x911bb3…
05-03 14:57:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	90	96¢	$86	0x846579…
05-03 13:15:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	106	96¢	$102	0xcb1b62…
04-30 16:36:06	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	1¢	$2	0xc089d7…
04-30 15:15:38	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	1¢	$1	0xbef847…
04-30 15:15:38	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	1¢	$1	0x700574…
04-30 15:15:38	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x394574…
04-30 09:00:00	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x43d4a1…
04-30 07:47:08	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	64	98¢	$63	0x5e2c57…
04-30 07:38:02	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	94	98¢	$92	0x9e42af…
04-29 18:41:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	2¢	$2	0xf050eb…
04-29 15:52:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0xd2fe43…
04-29 15:52:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	2¢	$1	0x04105a…
04-29 13:07:52	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	94	98¢	$92	0x06c89c…
04-29 10:08:42	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0xa8de11…
04-29 10:08:42	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	75	97¢	$73	0x8bf6a7…
04-27 05:37:54	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	146	3¢	$4	0xd66f65…
04-27 05:37:52	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	76	3¢	$2	0xb1aa0a…
04-27 03:07:04	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xb52516…
04-27 03:07:04	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0x34a388…
04-27 03:07:04	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0x03d96d…
04-26 23:23:26	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x9c3497…
04-26 23:23:26	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	44	99¢	$44	0x33bec2…
04-26 19:22:00	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0x31c6b5…
04-26 14:02:28	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	207	2¢	$3	0xb5b314…
04-26 11:59:38	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	207	2¢	$3	0xbeed0a…
04-26 07:35:40	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	104	98¢	$102	0x214468…
04-26 07:35:04	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	104	98¢	$102	0x13bb76…
04-25 23:57:48	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	SELL	103	1¢	$1	0xe17c3f…
04-25 20:56:58	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	BUY	103	1¢	$1	0x3798b1…
04-25 20:09:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	105	98¢	$103	0x370d1d…
04-25 17:28:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	105	97¢	$102	0xa0bcbc…
04-25 11:13:52	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	106	95¢	$101	0x21087b…
04-25 09:33:08	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	106	95¢	$101	0x4487c9…
04-25 02:59:02	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xf1140a…
04-25 02:59:02	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	68	1¢	$1	0xd62c5c…
04-25 02:59:02	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	42	1¢	$0	0x9cca35…
04-25 02:59:02	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	66	1¢	$1	0x73f40e…
04-25 02:59:02	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0x61d2af…
04-25 02:59:02	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	54	1¢	$1	0x35bb73…
04-25 00:27:38	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	271	1¢	$3	0x77227a…
04-24 12:21:24	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	104	97¢	$101	0x95c275…
04-24 10:32:32	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	104	97¢	$101	0xceaadc…
04-24 04:58:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x069d16…
04-24 04:57:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	84	94¢	$79	0xc36413…
04-24 00:23:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	87	93¢	$81	0x653400…
04-24 00:23:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x0eff24…
04-23 14:58:14	Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0xba1c9e…
04-23 12:59:10	Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x3ba51a…