Lively-Score — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$469

Unrealized P&L

-$141

Hit rate

90.4%

Resolved

963

Trades

2,083

lifetime

Volume

$52.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$241

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-04 03:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 71% +$170

Other

28% 84% +$281

Politics

19% 100% +$16

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+379	$197	32¢	$119	-$77	11-04 03:02
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+425	$119	20¢	$83	-$36	10-31 02:43
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in November?	Yes	+552	$66	7¢	$39	-$28	11-01 19:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	208	$12.1K	6,580	5,848	+732	No	+$21	04-09 05:46
Trump out as President by April 30?	146	$8.4K	4,405	4,143	+262	No	+$5	04-08 07:17
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	12	$669	600	600	+0	Yes	+$7	04-08 13:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	12	$654	2,227	2,227	+0	No	+$64	05-19 04:50
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	8	$530	400	325	+75	No	+$4	04-08 12:15
will bitcoin reach 74k on march 15	1	$421	443	0	+443	Yes	-$421	03-15 15:48
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	5	$411	210	210	+0	No	+$4	05-22 09:19
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	2	$410	210	210	+0	No	+$7	05-22 09:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	4	$397	207	207	+0	No	+$7	05-15 00:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 12:40 UTC	7	$364	215	213	+3	Up	+$25	04-05 12:44
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	6	$322	372	372	+0	Yes	+$77	05-21 13:58
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$321	161	161	+0	Yes	+$0	05-13 09:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 02:50 UTC	2	$300	200	197	+3	Down	+$40	03-26 02:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	2	$270	150	150	+0	No	+$3	05-15 00:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$258	130	130	+0	No	+$0	05-22 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	3	$254	205	196	+9	Up	+$57	05-15 00:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 05:20 UTC	4	$232	283	202	+81	Up	+$172	03-15 05:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 16:50 UTC	13	$221	113	113	+0	Down	+$1	03-27 16:54
bitcoin up or down april 5 2026 9am et	10	$212	146	146	+0	Up	+$68	04-05 13:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 01:55 UTC	2	$199	225	0	+225	Down	+$26	04-10 01:59
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$197	379	0	+379	open	—	11-04 03:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 13:05 UTC	6	$194	200	0	+200	Down	+$6	03-29 13:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 08:00 UTC	3	$192	100	100	+0	Up	+$6	03-23 08:04
nvda up or down on april 8 2026	3	$190	100	100	+0	Up	+$0	04-08 11:50
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	8	$188	2,094	0	+2,094	No	-$188	07-08 06:39
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	8	$188	184	184	+0	Yes	+$100	09-18 14:21
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	5	$183	100	100	+0	No	+$9	03-17 01:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 02:10 UTC	16	$174	120	118	+2	Down	+$14	04-10 02:15
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	4	$174	258	258	+0	No	-$135	06-16 12:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$168	375	0	+375	Yes	+$207	10-28 17:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 03:02:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x83fb95…
11-04 03:01:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc66b5b…
11-01 19:09:33	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in November?	Yes	BUY	552	12¢	$66	0x3ff357…
10-31 02:43:07	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	28¢	$112	0x74f74d…
10-31 02:40:52	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0x5b7be9…
10-31 02:40:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	369	52¢	$192	0x5eed16…
10-30 05:14:54	Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xd49984…
10-29 17:07:28	Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0xa86a14…
10-29 17:06:29	Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x3d2033…
10-29 17:06:04	Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xc73336…
10-29 17:05:43	Cambria FDV above $70M one day after launch?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x6e9d55…
10-29 16:59:04	Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?	No	BUY	94	94¢	$88	0x7ecf83…
10-29 15:52:53	Cambria FDV above $70M one day after launch?	No	BUY	72	98¢	$70	0xc84dcb…
10-29 15:52:37	Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xf26b15…
10-29 15:51:59	Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0xcce67c…
10-28 17:58:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x80ecf6…
09-18 14:28:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	369	44¢	$162	0xb0a5d7…
09-18 14:21:11	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	184	78¢	$144	0xf70e35…
09-18 14:20:56	Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	73¢	$20	0xa8591d…
09-18 14:20:32	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	8¢	$7	0x745f10…
09-09 11:24:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	88	47¢	$42	0x2d8829…
07-27 09:50:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	74	20¢	$15	0xac4dfd…
07-27 08:29:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xfd0d62…
07-27 08:29:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xf592f6…
07-27 08:29:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	17	20¢	$3	0x8b09b2…
07-27 08:28:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0x722864…
07-26 06:16:19	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	573	1¢	$4	0xa53565…
07-26 06:16:12	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	177	0¢	$1	0xcdb61e…
07-08 06:39:05	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	1,235	9¢	$111	0xbf2fe0…
07-08 05:38:47	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0x5f009b…
07-08 05:38:46	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x00398a…
07-08 05:37:49	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x0d1fbb…
07-08 05:37:49	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0x0cadb9…
07-08 05:37:29	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0xaef0e9…
07-08 05:37:23	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xc7ae70…
07-08 05:37:22	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	773	9¢	$70	0x1c75cd…
07-06 16:04:22	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x6f8fea…
07-06 16:04:02	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0x714c6f…
07-06 15:59:10	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	177	3¢	$5	0x9ff1b0…
07-04 12:23:34	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x3938f2…
07-04 11:59:38	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	54¢	$32	0x3e52b6…
07-04 11:59:25	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	54¢	$14	0xcb2855…
07-04 09:50:43	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x1aee97…
07-04 06:38:02	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	818	6¢	$52	0x4717b7…
07-04 06:33:52	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	60	22¢	$13	0x2d9157…
07-03 01:35:13	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	1,318	5¢	$65	0x45f186…
07-02 06:46:41	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb4201e…
07-02 02:17:05	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0x0304ed…
06-30 08:40:31	Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	37	17¢	$6	0x941efb…
06-30 08:40:17	Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	10¢	$3	0x7bddfa…
06-30 07:59:29	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	71	26¢	$19	0x9621d4…
06-29 20:05:11	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	24	26¢	$6	0xa7e3e7…
06-29 12:31:58	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x1da5f2…
06-29 09:38:58	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x2065c1…
06-26 17:49:19	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x08674c…
06-16 13:00:43	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x9dd520…
06-16 12:59:13	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	258	8¢	$20	0xeb829c…
06-12 17:34:43	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	18	26¢	$5	0xb4d916…
06-06 08:29:00	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	235	62¢	$146	0x601296…
06-06 08:28:01	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x1e3d82…
06-04 13:55:27	will bitcoin dip to 60k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	148	62¢	$92	0xea765c…
05-31 02:33:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	87¢	$48	0x8dff58…
05-31 02:29:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x9fc1fa…
05-22 09:20:09	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	16¢	$12	0x7d1f4b…
05-22 09:19:59	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	80¢	$55	0xd53870…
05-22 09:19:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	130	99¢	$129	0xcc58f1…
05-22 09:19:46	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	210	99¢	$208	0x367f21…
05-22 09:19:39	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	SELL	210	99¢	$208	0x7dbcbe…
05-21 18:36:43	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0x3cb37f…
05-21 18:31:02	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	39¢	$30	0x7a7609…
05-21 13:58:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	186	59¢	$110	0xea2662…
05-20 18:57:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xcf509a…
05-19 16:47:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0xc57862…
05-19 16:31:15	Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	97¢	$68	0x82c19f…
05-19 09:43:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2233e1…
05-19 08:36:53	Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	95¢	$66	0xdf8369…
05-19 07:56:43	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0xa3466c…
05-19 07:36:46	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x3226bd…
05-19 07:33:00	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x57b7dd…
05-19 04:50:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	820	20¢	$164	0x652bef…
05-18 18:25:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0x5a972c…
05-17 20:09:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	45	16¢	$7	0xa482f4…
05-17 20:02:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xb9402a…
05-17 04:24:44	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xbdfbfc…
05-16 17:03:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	300	19¢	$57	0xcceb4b…
05-16 10:38:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	170	22¢	$37	0x3ef16d…
05-16 09:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x957352…
05-16 09:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x4305fe…
05-16 09:36:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x31b78b…
05-16 09:36:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x9ef200…
05-16 09:29:41	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x669e4c…
05-16 08:26:55	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x86faf3…
05-15 14:57:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	500	13¢	$65	0x6d3a4d…
05-15 14:46:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,206	12¢	$145	0xaca402…
05-15 14:45:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	186	48¢	$89	0x994636…
05-15 13:01:30	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	BUY	210	96¢	$202	0xf39a41…
05-15 12:08:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	600	11¢	$66	0xc55ecf…
05-15 12:08:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xe80a44…
05-15 02:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xd07868…
05-15 02:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x33f55d…