Superficial-Horror — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

482

lifetime

Volume

$6.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 07-20 08:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

66% 0% $-3

Politics

19% 0% $-1

Tech

7% — —

Sports

4% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Valve add first CS2 operation by August 31, 2026?	Yes		+13	$3	3¢	$0	$-3	07-13 07:01
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?	No		+0	$0	34¢	$0	+$0	07-18 10:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	11	$228	205	205	+0	open	—	02-28 12:08
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$100	100	100	+0	open	—	04-09 10:34
will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 716	5	$96	89	89	+0	open	—	03-04 01:48
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 4, 2026?	4	$91	100	100	+0	open	—	04-05 06:33
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	2	$90	50	50	+0	open	—	05-28 03:41
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	2	$88	50	50	+0	open	—	07-05 00:18
tulsi gabbard out by march 31	2	$87	50	50	+0	open	—	03-20 06:03
will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 795 942	7	$86	100	100	+0	open	—	03-14 06:44
msm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 01 2026 0pt84	2	$86	50	50	+0	open	—	03-21 08:32
Nothing Ever Happens: March	2	$86	50	50	+0	open	—	03-05 11:16
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 4 2026	2	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	03-04 13:32
will russia enter novyi donbas by march 31	2	$82	50	50	+0	open	—	03-12 07:09
will krakens valuation hit high 20b by december 31	2	$81	50	50	+0	open	—	07-08 03:19
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	5	$81	50	50	+0	Yes	$-1	04-16 02:14
nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 31 2026 0pt29	7	$80	100	100	+0	open	—	03-20 10:56
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	2	$80	50	50	+0	open	—	04-07 05:19
Will Ryan Dotson be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?	2	$80	50	50	+0	open	—	02-28 01:04
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	3	$80	50	50	+0	open	—	07-10 14:50
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	3	$80	50	50	+0	open	—	07-08 09:23
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	2	$78	50	50	+0	open	—	06-11 03:55
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	2	$77	50	50	+0	open	—	03-29 02:53
will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$76	50	50	+0	open	—	03-29 11:14
will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	2	$76	50	50	+0	open	—	06-05 11:49
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	5	$76	56	56	+0	open	—	03-04 01:48
will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	2	$76	50	50	+0	open	—	07-11 05:52
will clavicular visit brazil in 2026 20260714153003047	2	$76	50	50	+0	open	—	07-15 02:11
Will Phoebe Bridgers attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	2	$75	50	50	+0	open	—	07-03 04:49
will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt85b	2	$74	50	50	+0	open	—	06-07 22:40
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	3	$74	50	50	+0	open	—	04-08 10:02
will bitcoin outperform silver in march 2026	2	$71	50	50	+0	open	—	03-06 12:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 08:35:37	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	50	31¢	$15	0xbbba6d…
07-20 08:35:21	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x60bde4…
07-18 10:52:07	FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?	No	BUY	0	32¢	$0	0x952214…
07-18 01:52:30	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x8abe9e…
07-17 06:59:33	criminal charges in pfizer building structural failure by december 31 20260713154109326	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xac189c…
07-17 06:39:31	will jl find a team before september 20260715172954686	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x5ee13c…
07-17 06:31:28	criminal charges in pfizer building structural failure by december 31 20260713154109326	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x72513d…
07-17 06:27:01	will jl find a team before september 20260715172954686	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x416151…
07-16 06:25:29	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x61f5c2…
07-16 06:25:23	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x250bbc…
07-16 03:04:40	moscow air traffic suspended by july 24 20260713153341191	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x87ef91…
07-16 00:55:58	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0x69e576…
07-16 00:55:41	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x79b3d8…
07-16 00:34:08	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xcf7830…
07-16 00:33:17	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xd9e1e2…
07-15 04:43:08	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260715004553751	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x111000…
07-15 04:39:31	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260715004553751	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x62f108…
07-15 04:24:05	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026 20260715004553750	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xd644ac…
07-15 02:11:35	will clavicular visit brazil in 2026 20260714153003047	No	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0xb33227…
07-15 02:11:29	will clavicular visit brazil in 2026 20260714153003047	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x20d7d9…
07-15 00:46:58	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xa65f3f…
07-15 00:44:19	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x54ec1a…
07-13 07:01:52	Will Valve add first CS2 operation by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0xa53041…
07-13 01:33:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x6714a5…
07-13 01:33:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xb77a89…
07-12 10:03:07	StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0x23ac1d…
07-12 10:02:49	StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x8f6f55…
07-11 05:52:17	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x91926c…
07-11 05:52:05	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xc8109a…
07-10 14:50:13	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	36	77¢	$28	0x500a23…
07-10 14:50:02	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0x297ffe…
07-10 07:34:17	will gleans valuation hit low 4b by december 31 20260701011238547	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x87ddb5…
07-10 07:34:07	will gleans valuation hit low 4b by december 31 20260701011238547	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xf9fd8b…
07-10 06:30:10	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x3aff71…
07-10 02:52:05	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x73ebe0…
07-10 02:51:53	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x5bd65b…
07-09 16:55:44	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	SELL	50	27¢	$14	0x11b4b6…
07-09 06:17:50	will risex launch a token by september 30 2026 20260708174012703	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xa1d336…
07-09 06:17:38	will risex launch a token by september 30 2026 20260708174012703	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x6df3f4…
07-08 09:23:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0xe58446…
07-08 09:23:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xc007ca…
07-08 09:23:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x47453f…
07-08 03:55:49	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xb635ae…
07-08 03:55:32	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xf5e5a9…
07-08 03:19:43	will krakens valuation hit high 20b by december 31	No	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0xdabc67…
07-07 00:36:47	Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x3af433…
07-07 00:36:28	Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x1a9a14…
07-06 06:36:37	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x013f37…
07-06 04:23:26	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	49¢	$24	0xea64f6…
07-06 04:08:50	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x482557…
07-06 03:11:46	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xbbaccf…
07-06 03:11:35	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x650559…
07-05 03:08:38	Will Drake perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0xae930b…
07-05 03:08:26	Will Drake perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x37efe1…
07-05 00:18:26	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x20aebe…
07-05 00:18:14	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xe2fd34…
07-03 04:49:55	Will Phoebe Bridgers attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x64ecce…
07-03 04:49:46	Will Phoebe Bridgers attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xcd7747…
07-03 02:52:56	Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0x240172…
07-03 02:52:44	Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x57ed15…
07-02 10:44:47	will krakens valuation hit high 20b by december 31	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x54ed3b…
07-02 09:46:44	Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	No	SELL	50	51¢	$26	0xcedf8f…
07-02 09:46:28	Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	No	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x92a4d9…
07-02 07:24:19	will openais valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 366 424	Yes	SELL	44	56¢	$25	0x25183a…
07-02 07:23:58	will openais valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 366 424	Yes	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x68005a…
07-02 05:30:53	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x0f37b1…
07-02 05:30:44	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x043350…
07-02 04:22:25	Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0x4f47b0…
07-02 04:22:10	Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x0e8fc7…
07-01 10:01:53	will lab reach 24 before 2027	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x093a5c…
07-01 05:06:16	will open dip to 3 50 in july 2026	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x5735c7…
07-01 03:58:50	will open dip to 3 50 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x5d9a81…
07-01 03:36:47	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x80e0d6…
07-01 03:36:26	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0xc0188d…
07-01 02:21:47	will msft reach 375 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xf38b45…
07-01 02:21:37	will msft reach 375 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xc2f041…
06-29 11:00:31	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0xbe7611…
06-29 11:00:20	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0xac1978…
06-29 06:40:01	will lab reach 24 before 2027	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x8ed015…
06-28 09:08:49	will gabriel martinelli score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	14	21¢	$3	0x0e1cc3…
06-28 08:38:40	will gabriel martinelli score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	14	24¢	$3	0x7a39a4…
06-24 07:55:47	Will Tempo launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	18¢	$5	0xc50b26…
06-24 07:55:38	Will Tempo launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	18¢	$4	0x62c015…
06-24 07:55:38	Will Tempo launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	18¢	$1	0x606323…
06-24 07:24:22	Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x74737a…
06-24 07:24:07	Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xd3b66a…
06-22 12:02:17	will donald trump publicly insult nicols maduro by june 30 2026	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0xd300ca…
06-22 09:54:59	will donald trump publicly insult nicols maduro by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xa6373b…
06-21 07:08:41	will titan launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x2f8e0e…
06-21 07:08:32	will titan launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x1ec4c0…
06-21 06:12:28	will reya launch a token by september 30 2026	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x9b074a…
06-21 02:18:26	will hurupay launch a token by september 30 2026	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xb2eabc…
06-21 02:16:04	will hurupay launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xe4e6e6…
06-21 02:07:01	will reya launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x506c2b…
06-20 11:42:43	Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xda2445…
06-20 11:42:31	Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xa284ee…
06-19 12:25:41	will hurupay launch a token by december 31 2026	No	SELL	12	46¢	$6	0x6d82a7…
06-19 12:25:23	will hurupay launch a token by december 31 2026	No	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0xcdd1e8…
06-19 11:02:26	will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x6eb492…
06-19 11:02:13	will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x0a84d9…