Upbeat-Downgrade — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

92.4%

Resolved

Trades

247

lifetime

Volume

$782

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-26

last 06-16 18:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 91% +$17

Politics

11% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+21	$16	0¢	$0	$-16	06-09 11:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9?	1	$29	30	0	+30	Yes	+$1	05-08 04:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7?	1	$28	30	0	+30	No	+$2	05-06 16:12
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11?	1	$24	25	0	+25	Yes	+$1	05-10 05:15
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	1	$24	25	0	+25	open	—	05-11 19:08
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	6	$23	26	0	+26	open	—	06-12 10:42
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?	5	$20	25	5	+20	No	+$2	05-05 12:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?	3	$20	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-05 21:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	05-08 20:51
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8?	1	$19	20	0	+20	No	+$1	05-07 13:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$16	21	0	+21	open	—	06-09 11:47
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	1	$16	20	0	+20	open	—	05-10 20:22
bitcoin above 64k on june 10 2026	2	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	06-10 07:32
will bitcoin reach 69k on june 16	1	$15	15	0	+15	open	—	06-16 11:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1	$11	13	0	+13	open	—	06-01 17:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	06-01 12:19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	06-03 07:24
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	06-03 20:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	2	$8	6	6	+0	Down	+$2	05-07 13:32
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	05-25 16:08
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	1	$6	8	0	+8	open	—	06-12 06:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$6	6	0	+6	Up	+$0	05-11 16:13
bitcoin above 66k on june 9 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	06-08 21:02
bitcoin above 58k on june 7 2026 356 993	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	06-06 22:05
bitcoin above 62k on june 8 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	06-08 12:59
bitcoin above 66k on june 4 2026	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-04 06:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Up	+$8	05-05 05:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Down	$-5	05-05 05:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Down	+$2	05-06 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-04 06:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	05-04 05:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 18:17:17	will bitcoin dip to 64k on june 16	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4c20d2…
06-16 17:45:14	bitcoin above 68k on june 17 2026	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0cda5d…
06-16 11:14:25	will bitcoin reach 69k on june 16	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x32a340…
06-15 11:47:37	will bitcoin reach 68k on june 15	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xee483d…
06-14 20:22:25	will bitcoin reach 66k on june 14	No	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0xf1aa7e…
06-14 08:28:48	bitcoin above 66k on june 14 2026	No	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0x1ed330…
06-13 21:15:39	will bitcoin dip to 63k on june 13	No	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0x35639c…
06-12 10:42:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x89df0b…
06-12 10:42:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xcfbc3b…
06-12 06:28:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xe8b71c…
06-12 06:26:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0xaf26b7…
06-12 06:26:12	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x2573b6…
06-12 06:24:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0xb0300e…
06-12 06:13:24	bitcoin above 64k on june 12 2026	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x67cbf9…
06-10 07:32:28	bitcoin above 64k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x484586…
06-09 18:59:55	bitcoin above 64k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x2c86bb…
06-09 18:55:42	will bitcoin dip to 59k on june 9	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x80042d…
06-09 11:47:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xa79cc5…
06-09 08:39:03	will bitcoin reach 68k june 8 14 2026	No	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x9ac20f…
06-09 08:35:42	bitcoin above 64k on june 9 2026	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xe545b9…
06-09 05:32:15	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0xc142b8…
06-08 21:02:36	bitcoin above 66k on june 9 2026	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x4c6877…
06-08 12:59:04	bitcoin above 62k on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x6f15b9…
06-07 20:52:25	will bitcoin reach 64k on june 7	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x801f44…
06-07 20:51:13	bitcoin above 58k on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x7b5627…
06-06 22:05:46	bitcoin above 58k on june 7 2026 356 993	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x2f74a0…
06-04 06:03:01	bitcoin above 66k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xdfe7b9…
06-03 20:15:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x263d50…
06-03 07:24:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xc516c2…
06-03 07:13:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xbde78c…
06-02 12:15:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xd0a128…
06-01 22:09:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x019312…
06-01 17:59:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	13	82¢	$11	0xbe38a6…
06-01 12:19:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xc12a28…
05-25 16:08:08	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd97c0b…
05-25 16:03:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xad61b1…
05-25 15:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa0f21d…
05-24 18:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x17033e…
05-24 14:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x6f9732…
05-24 14:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xb98501…
05-24 14:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x615914…
05-24 14:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbf08c5…
05-24 14:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xd21a7c…
05-24 14:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x3a6b16…
05-24 14:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xcd990a…
05-24 14:17:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1375d7…
05-24 14:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x0e2eb8…
05-24 14:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x37d133…
05-24 13:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xe0fbfe…
05-23 19:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xdb6f57…
05-23 14:45:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x1a6ad3…
05-23 14:38:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x959594…
05-23 14:37:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa77e67…
05-23 14:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x9a556f…
05-23 14:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x36c41a…
05-23 14:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7833e8…
05-23 14:18:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xbc1582…
05-23 14:13:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x5d2fb3…
05-23 14:09:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6cdbe0…
05-23 14:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xf7ddb6…
05-23 14:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x407b6e…
05-23 14:02:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x8f9494…
05-23 14:01:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x55db7e…
05-23 13:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x302e55…
05-23 06:17:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xa56ced…
05-23 06:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x6b767b…
05-23 06:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x68acf4…
05-21 07:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xb6d390…
05-21 07:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x462c5d…
05-21 07:43:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xcc3e18…
05-21 07:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x98af03…
05-21 07:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x8d1c2a…
05-21 07:23:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x8a519f…
05-21 07:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd667cd…
05-21 07:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbd44c1…
05-21 07:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe8689f…
05-21 06:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x709cc1…
05-21 06:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xdeb2b9…
05-21 06:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x01caa7…
05-20 19:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x981655…
05-20 19:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x05c7ee…
05-20 19:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xc79a01…
05-20 19:29:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x642cbb…
05-20 19:23:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x91151f…
05-20 19:18:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x187b5e…
05-20 19:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x0ad1d5…
05-20 19:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x42fd9c…
05-20 18:52:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xcbd65b…
05-17 21:32:16	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0x1f8434…
05-17 20:59:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x191ad3…
05-17 20:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x965274…
05-15 19:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x93b51a…
05-15 19:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x70181d…
05-15 19:37:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x58274f…
05-15 19:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbab895…
05-15 19:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x17abe6…
05-15 19:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x71990f…
05-15 19:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x82fde7…
05-15 19:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x98692b…
05-15 19:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x80e4a6…