Gleeful-Kilt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$368

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.8%

Resolved

290

Trades

802

lifetime

Volume

$8.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 09-10 17:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 49% -$360

Other

31% 37% -$6

Tech

7% 14% -$1

Politics

7% 0% -$2

Sports

0% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	14	$580	292	292	+0	No	-$1	03-29 02:10
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	7	$446	224	224	+0	No	$0	03-29 02:17
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	6	$434	218	218	+0	No	$0	03-29 02:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 02:20 UTC	4	$379	380	366	+14	Down	+$8	04-01 02:24
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	12	$359	180	180	+0	Yes	$0	04-01 00:01
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	6	$348	180	180	+0	No	$0	03-28 03:12
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	6	$254	127	127	+0	No	$0	03-29 02:12
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$233	117	117	+0	No	$0	03-29 02:14
will trump visit china by march 31	8	$230	268	268	+0	No	-$2	03-28 03:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 23:00 UTC	2	$218	121	121	+0	Up	+$3	03-29 23:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 00:15 UTC	4	$214	141	141	+0	Down	+$3	03-25 00:20
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	12	$213	111	105	+6	Yes	$0	03-30 03:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 01:00 UTC	2	$203	103	103	+0	Down	+$1	03-12 01:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 02:10 UTC	2	$192	146	143	+3	Down	-$3	04-01 02:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 02:05 UTC	2	$190	113	111	+2	Up	+$12	04-01 02:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 03:20 UTC	4	$186	176	173	+3	Up	+$6	03-30 03:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 02:15 UTC	2	$182	96	95	+0	Up	+$2	04-01 02:19
will tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in q1 2026	9	$162	81	81	+0	No	$0	03-28 03:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 00:30 UTC	2	$154	192	188	+3	Down	-$19	03-31 00:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 03:15 UTC	2	$145	91	90	+1	Up	+$2	03-30 03:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 00:10 UTC	2	$143	126	124	+1	Up	+$68	03-25 00:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 00:30 UTC	1	$107	215	0	+215	Up	-$107	03-25 00:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 03:55 UTC	2	$106	68	67	+1	Down	-$6	04-18 03:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 03:45 UTC	2	$106	58	57	+1	Up	+$8	04-18 03:50
bitcoin above 66k on march 14	13	$103	52	52	+0	Yes	$0	03-14 01:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 01:05 UTC	1	$102	134	0	+134	Up	-$102	03-12 01:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 03:30 UTC	2	$97	50	50	+0	Down	+$3	04-18 03:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 02:25 UTC	1	$95	517	0	+517	Down	-$95	04-01 02:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 03:25 UTC	4	$93	49	49	+0	Down	+$4	04-18 03:31
will trumps approval rating be at least 41pt0 on april 3 2026	9	$82	41	41	+0	No	$0	03-29 00:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-10 17:26:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd991f0…
09-10 17:26:00	Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x7f01c3…
09-02 11:25:21	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa9d92a…
08-09 13:13:57	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x61e0a0…
08-09 13:12:04	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5d53cf…
07-30 01:11:02	Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x8f9cad…
07-30 01:09:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 01:05 UTC	Down	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0x546bf4…
07-30 01:07:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 01:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x1d5ddf…
07-30 01:05:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 01:05 UTC	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x4efc09…
06-21 07:25:16	mlb atl cws 2026 06 11	Chicago White Sox	SELL	1	46¢	$1	0xf48ebe…
06-21 07:24:56	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x6820bf…
06-21 07:24:37	Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x6ed6b0…
06-21 07:24:05	Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x6b05f2…
06-13 20:26:57	Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf1641a…
06-12 10:51:22	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x07d248…
06-12 10:49:31	mlb atl cws 2026 06 11	Chicago White Sox	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x7c89a4…
06-10 03:57:46	Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7c9f6f…
06-01 13:25:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa63eca…
06-01 11:43:46	Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x4118a9…
06-01 07:45:20	Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x275a7f…
06-01 07:13:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 2?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3da400…
06-01 07:12:52	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x7000de…
06-01 07:12:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 2?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd0509b…
06-01 07:11:41	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 2?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfbcaf3…
06-01 07:11:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xae0396…
06-01 07:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xede375…
06-01 00:59:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x8bc7d0…
06-01 00:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x096a2f…
06-01 00:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xe8b258…
06-01 00:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x3f5316…
06-01 00:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x61a767…
06-01 00:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x64c5bb…
06-01 00:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x293b3a…
05-31 22:37:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xe9255b…
05-31 22:37:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xe5e1df…
05-31 05:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x898f83…
05-31 05:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xa22bd3…
05-31 05:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?	Up	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0xa20cc8…
05-31 05:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x7fc4be…
05-31 05:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?	Up	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x866c9a…
05-31 05:26:43	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x264dc4…
05-30 01:53:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xea4d2f…
05-30 01:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xf59143…
05-30 01:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x69cb8f…
05-29 10:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa09305…
05-29 10:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x159048…
05-29 10:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8757ee…
05-28 10:21:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x36be26…
05-28 10:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x303899…
05-28 10:07:29	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x92c63a…
05-28 10:07:22	UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Cody Haddon	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0xd6a310…
05-28 10:07:12	Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe9e802…
05-28 10:06:42	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x459c71…
05-28 10:06:19	Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xac96ff…
05-28 10:06:05	UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Kai Asakura	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0xa9feab…
05-28 10:05:49	UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Sergei Pavlovich	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x2b8cbc…
05-28 10:05:30	Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x5d3b22…
05-28 10:05:11	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x1ee20a…
05-28 10:05:00	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x641a2b…
05-28 10:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x8c8c14…
05-28 10:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xac52c8…
05-28 09:53:54	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x26f638…
05-28 09:51:58	Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf29703…
05-28 09:51:04	Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x590e3b…
05-28 09:50:52	Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb7c9a3…
05-25 23:42:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 27?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xdd68a1…
05-25 23:42:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 27?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x24c5cf…
05-25 23:38:50	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa32c8e…
05-25 23:38:43	UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Song Yadong	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x4be06d…
05-25 23:38:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xdf203b…
05-25 23:38:21	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x09ae2c…
05-25 23:38:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x926f68…
05-25 10:59:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x0b71cc…
05-25 10:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc771bb…
05-25 10:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc17684…
05-25 10:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7067eb…
05-25 10:34:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf226c4…
05-25 10:34:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9ac209…
05-25 10:34:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5df988…
05-25 10:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xff2a0c…
05-25 10:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf7fc2a…
05-25 10:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa0861e…
05-25 10:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x824a13…
05-25 10:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xebf4e1…
05-25 10:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x97612e…
05-25 10:32:32	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x551485…
05-25 10:31:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xc0e7ce…
05-25 10:30:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x919ed8…
05-25 10:29:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf1c505…
05-25 10:26:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x765707…
05-25 10:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x9b92c0…
05-25 10:03:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x224b76…
05-25 10:02:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x86c209…
05-25 09:59:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xe2d71c…
05-25 09:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x591eb2…
05-25 09:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf4ac99…
05-25 09:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd82dff…
05-25 09:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x364279…
05-25 09:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0e113a…
05-25 09:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe00bd8…