Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

55.5%

Resolved

154

Trades

162

lifetime

Volume

$197

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-08-12

last 11-06 12:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

84% 55% +$12

Politics

14% 53% +$3

Tech

2% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	+4	$1	72¢	$3	+$2	10-27 19:57
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	+2	$1	96¢	$2	+$1	08-18 17:02
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	11-03 06:08
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	34¢	$1	+$0	11-06 12:41
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	74¢	$1	$0	11-04 08:47
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	+2	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	11-06 03:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 12:41:49	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xcfd79a…
11-06 03:56:55	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x0b669e…
11-05 13:13:28	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x14e2d9…
11-05 02:38:19	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc07217…
11-04 08:47:43	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd3e075…
11-04 00:01:21	Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x30124e…
11-03 15:42:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 3?	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x9b3ca2…
11-03 15:22:49	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x8c934e…
11-03 06:08:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xbd84b1…
11-02 22:02:51	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x15eee8…
11-02 13:59:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x11f3cb…
11-02 05:58:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2?	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x4f6fad…
11-01 21:58:03	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x74dc73…
10-31 21:55:16	Will Hinge Health (HNGE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x01894f…
10-30 01:44:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf3bcb7…
10-29 17:16:58	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 29?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5ea44c…
10-29 03:20:50	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x17e891…
10-28 13:43:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xc882d5…
10-28 03:59:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x82755c…
10-27 19:57:23	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbf1a3a…
10-27 11:46:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x275632…
10-27 03:32:35	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa937cd…
10-26 13:41:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x3164a6…
10-26 05:41:23	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x2c3852…
10-25 21:41:17	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7d4ee0…
10-25 10:52:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xef2862…
10-25 02:06:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xc27f44…
10-23 17:19:54	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x0c9ea7…
10-23 09:19:50	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 23?	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa4c029…
10-22 13:18:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb7f428…
10-21 16:04:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x05712c…
10-21 07:46:24	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xf31751…
10-19 23:46:14	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 24?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x8774da…
10-19 15:45:06	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x86f989…
10-19 07:34:36	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $540 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x09bd46…
10-18 23:34:27	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xe85214…
10-18 23:33:12	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x77d70f…
10-18 13:11:05	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x62b37c…
10-18 12:03:42	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xd64002…
10-17 23:47:54	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xb0487a…
10-17 14:08:20	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x38fe55…
10-16 23:03:30	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 22 2026	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xf2139a…
10-16 13:02:31	spy up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xebc8d8…
10-16 04:35:52	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x430630…
10-16 04:35:13	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x894a01…
10-15 19:49:50	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xa8dc32…
10-15 09:37:52	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xbfb626…
10-15 01:11:55	will the tesla roadsters 0 60 time be less than 1 second	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x74a7b4…
10-14 17:09:04	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x2f0d3f…
10-14 09:05:40	spy up or down on october 14 2026	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xda86eb…
10-14 01:04:54	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $220 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe280ed…
10-13 15:26:23	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x132110…
10-13 07:25:44	will meta dip to 720 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x6572fb…
10-12 23:17:53	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7a8a65…
10-12 15:16:59	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 12?	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7a3e61…
10-12 07:10:23	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x462292…
10-11 23:10:08	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb37faf…
10-11 23:08:57	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf4d4c7…
10-11 14:32:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x598601…
10-10 21:48:57	Will Bank of America (BAC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xd7741c…
10-10 11:47:48	Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x116c94…
10-09 15:27:15	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xcf8194…
10-09 05:40:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe68957…
10-08 21:40:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x26c9c7…
10-08 13:40:00	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 8?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xe41850…
10-08 03:56:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 8?	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x1d3468…
10-07 18:37:37	will coin reach 187 50 by october 5 2026 from october 7	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x86b739…
10-07 10:23:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xf3fd7b…
10-07 02:21:11	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $72 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x504aee…
10-07 02:21:06	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x19d8f9…
10-06 18:19:51	will abnb reach 164 by october 5 2026 from october 6	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x33f5e9…
10-06 09:54:01	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2e54a9…
10-06 01:49:56	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xc0f702…
10-05 16:49:49	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x95f9b2…
10-05 00:59:17	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x379542…
10-02 11:30:38	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x6dddf4…
10-02 03:11:50	spy up or down on october 2 2026	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x0a415d…
10-01 17:15:51	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xfb63bd…
10-01 08:42:53	will the next claude haiku 4pt6 model be released by october 7 2026	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x36d717…
10-01 08:35:41	will nvda reach 236 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x0d5caa…
09-30 23:20:23	will xagusd reach 61 by september 28 2026 from september 30	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xfaf587…
09-30 07:04:56	spy up or down on september 30 2026	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x6e1569…
09-29 23:04:18	will msft reach 525 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xf8db18…
09-29 15:02:00	will googl dip to 335 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x978870…
09-29 05:42:38	will hood dip to 112 50 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x9ed3bc…
09-28 21:42:08	will meta reach 740 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf4eb45…
09-28 13:18:51	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xdc038e…
09-28 05:18:05	will amzn reach 252 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x16efe1…
09-27 06:20:14	will msft dip to 510 in september 2026 from september 25	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7864e5…
09-26 22:13:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xeb47af…
09-26 07:08:57	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xfe5aef…
09-23 18:48:20	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	2	76¢	$1	0x480934…
09-23 18:36:23	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $187.50 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0xe13b21…
09-23 10:35:44	will ukraine target moscow on september 26 2026	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$1	0x9381a7…
09-23 02:31:29	will xauusd dip to 4300 by september 21 2026 from september 22	No	BUY	4	37¢	$1	0x738566…
09-21 05:50:47	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $182.50 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x4bdcba…
09-20 21:42:44	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0x04ad97…
09-20 04:06:16	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	74¢	$1	0x30b7c1…
09-19 07:24:01	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xa9d411…
09-18 03:15:30	spy up or down on september 18 2026	Up	BUY	3	53¢	$1	0xee6b87…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of October 19 2026?	2	$2	4	+4	No	$0	10-18 23:34
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-19 07:24
will xauusd dip to 4300 by september 21 2026 from september 22	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	-$1	09-23 02:31
will ewy reach 187 by september 7 2026	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	+$3	09-10 22:46
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	-$1	09-09 08:44
next mythos class model released by september 7 2026	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$0	08-31 19:25
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$0	08-30 18:33
will ukraine target moscow on september 26 2026	1	$1	6	+6	Yes	+$4	09-23 10:35
will xagusd reach 66 by august 31 2026	1	$1	3	+3	Yes	-$1	09-02 00:19
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	09-13 18:49
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 24?	1	$1	3	+3	Down	-$1	08-23 22:17
will warsh say pandemic during september press conference 20260909	1	$1	3	+3	No	-$1	09-15 22:35
will wti dip to 95 by september 7 2026	1	$1	5	+5	No	+$3	09-10 02:51
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$1	6	+6	No	-$1	09-14 11:02
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	09-17 17:33
will nvda reach 224 by september 7 2026	1	$1	6	+6	No	-$1	09-11 06:49
next mythos class model released by september 4 2026	1	$1	5	+5	Yes	-$1	08-31 11:25
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	08-27 05:23
laptop airdrop by september 9	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$0	09-08 07:26
will amzn reach 256 by september 14 2026	1	$1	5	+5	No	+$3	09-14 19:05
spx up or down on august 14 2026	1	$1	2	+2	Down	-$1	08-14 08:48
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of August 24 2026?	1	$1	5	+5	No	+$3	08-24 23:07
spy up or down on september 18 2026	1	$1	3	+3	Down	-$1	09-18 03:15
next mythos class model released by september 2 2026	1	$1	3	+3	Yes	-$1	08-29 21:21
spy up or down on august 14 2026	1	$1	3	+3	Down	+$2	08-14 00:20
will googl dip to 335 by august 17 2026	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	08-17 04:32
will abnb dip to 176 by august 17 2026	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	08-17 04:35
will trump say hottest during remarks in new york 20260811183234691	1	$1	6	+6	Yes	-$1	08-13 15:43
spy up or down on august 21 2026	1	$1	4	+4	Up	-$1	08-21 06:28
will ewy reach 186 in august 2026	1	$1	3	+3	No	+$1	08-30 08:39