Worse-Downturn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$982

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

64.7%

Resolved

1,097

Trades

4,236

lifetime

Volume

$128.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-31

last 09-26 12:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 155 days

Categories

Politics

54% 48% -$576

Other

38% 51% -$151

Sports

7% 46% -$158

Tech

0% 62% -$10

Crypto

0% 51% -$88

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	No	+5	$3	70¢	$3	+$0	08-06 11:35
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	+3	-$39	85¢	$2	+$41	09-01 09:38
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	+5	$29	30¢	$1	-$28	08-27 16:59
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	+3	$1	15¢	$0	-$1	07-16 16:55
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	-1	$0	2¢	$-0	$0	08-13 11:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	56	$4.7K	2,980	2,979	+1	Yes	+$51	06-15 22:56
iran full airspace closure by august 15	39	$3.2K	2,518	1,978	+540	No	+$171	08-04 09:20
will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	54	$2.3K	1,789	1,789	-0	No	+$110	07-03 19:51
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	24	$2.2K	1,348	1,037	+311	Yes	+$109	06-02 00:40
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	25	$1.7K	1,624	1,624	+0	No	-$113	08-25 14:25
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	34	$1.6K	1,226	1,226	+0	No	+$61	06-14 09:14
iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	7	$1.6K	1,280	320	+960	No	+$22	07-10 12:55
will wti reach 95 in july 2026	20	$1.5K	1,670	1,670	+0	No	-$27	07-25 11:48
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	28	$1.5K	1,086	1,086	+0	No	-$22	06-16 23:55
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	18	$1.5K	1,082	1,082	+0	Yes	+$109	05-31 13:56
will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	6	$1.4K	1,148	1,148	+0	Yes	-$64	07-14 21:35
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	21	$1.3K	930	930	+0	No	+$36	06-14 18:14
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	25	$1.2K	754	733	+22	No	+$43	08-14 13:17
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	38	$1.2K	1,458	1,458	+0	No	-$186	07-31 19:34
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	15	$1.2K	1,073	1,073	+0	Yes	+$43	07-07 18:55
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	6	$1.1K	1,023	1,023	+0	Yes	+$33	06-08 21:07
Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	10	$1.1K	631	631	+0	No	+$104	07-13 03:38
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	11	$1.1K	638	638	+0	Yes	+$27	08-12 10:12
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	32	$1.0K	1,548	1,548	+0	No	-$191	08-17 06:27
Will there be no next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?	4	$1.0K	514	514	+0	No	+$2	07-20 23:38
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	21	$1.0K	632	632	+0	No	+$30	07-31 22:07
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	7	$962	706	706	+0	No	-$38	06-09 09:17
iran full airspace closure by july 27	11	$940	570	570	+0	No	+$86	07-26 05:54
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	24	$916	884	884	+0	Yes	-$8	08-12 10:07
will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 10 2026 20260630182730888	9	$914	554	554	+0	No	-$149	07-11 22:21
iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	5	$914	480	480	+0	No	+$14	07-15 12:01
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	15	$863	782	782	+0	Yes	-$38	07-10 21:43
iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260629202434612	3	$820	529	300	+229	Yes	+$9	07-07 10:17
Will John Healey be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?	16	$810	409	409	+0	No	+$4	07-20 21:21
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	24	$793	687	687	+0	No	+$28	08-11 11:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-26 12:13:18	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0xaa9574…
09-26 12:12:59	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	62¢	$22	0x70dbfa…
09-26 12:12:54	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x06e223…
09-25 09:36:56	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	SELL	11	60¢	$7	0x652e0e…
09-25 09:34:12	Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by September 30?	Yes	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0xa1bad3…
09-23 11:04:41	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	50¢	$18	0x3fa926…
09-22 17:39:07	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	90¢	$18	0x5e41b9…
09-22 17:38:13	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	11	31¢	$3	0xf2f12e…
09-22 17:37:54	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0x95329f…
09-22 17:37:18	Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x3743a9…
09-18 15:54:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of September 14 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2e67d0…
09-18 15:53:58	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xda2cd0…
09-18 15:50:40	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	No	SELL	65	94¢	$61	0x39167d…
09-18 06:22:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	SELL	43	88¢	$38	0xb6661a…
09-17 10:52:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	SELL	197	23¢	$45	0x3dc16d…
09-16 22:54:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	37	59¢	$22	0x10a03e…
09-16 22:54:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x1b3909…
09-16 21:59:00	will wti reach 110 by september 14 2026	No	SELL	64	91¢	$58	0xdc9f15…
09-15 18:09:07	will wti reach 110 by september 14 2026	No	BUY	25	57¢	$14	0x06c8e6…
09-15 18:08:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0x07d8ad…
09-15 18:07:30	will wti reach 110 by september 14 2026	No	BUY	41	56¢	$23	0x2865f7…
09-15 18:07:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	54	54¢	$29	0x57af23…
09-15 18:06:57	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x7b1a59…
09-14 19:51:57	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x610c06…
09-14 19:49:22	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xa0a9ea…
09-14 18:24:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	60	40¢	$24	0x93c1bd…
09-14 18:24:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Yes	BUY	34	71¢	$24	0x7dd4e3…
09-14 17:30:25	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	Yes	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xe33aca…
09-14 17:28:18	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xbdadaf…
09-14 17:27:24	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	Yes	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x4de91f…
09-13 14:04:25	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xa972b2…
09-13 14:03:37	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x634318…
09-13 14:03:34	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x96ede6…
09-13 14:02:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x8fe5ae…
09-11 18:41:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x0c8a9c…
09-11 18:36:42	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x4930ba…
09-11 18:36:33	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x9b2e03…
09-10 21:21:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Yes	SELL	57	85¢	$49	0x27f6f0…
09-09 09:27:46	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x706126…
09-08 22:25:03	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	14	47¢	$7	0x440195…
09-07 20:14:13	Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x0092c5…
09-07 20:12:27	Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani in September?	No	BUY	22	32¢	$7	0x7126ac…
09-07 20:10:46	Will Trump praise Andy Burnham in September?	No	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xe6052e…
09-07 20:09:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Yes	SELL	22	30¢	$7	0xf00d83…
09-07 20:08:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xd66351…
09-07 20:05:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xb65f23…
09-06 12:39:04	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xa26adc…
09-06 12:38:34	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xcc89bd…
09-06 12:28:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Yes	BUY	57	17¢	$10	0xaa04c7…
09-06 07:34:22	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x9e6e42…
09-05 19:27:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Yes	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x50d31f…
09-03 09:08:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x8c97e0…
09-03 09:07:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	Yes	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0x13b1e3…
09-01 13:44:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x4dabe3…
09-01 13:43:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0xd7223b…
09-01 13:43:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x06f027…
09-01 13:01:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x1be5e2…
09-01 13:00:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Yes	BUY	16	47¢	$7	0x7e26b3…
09-01 12:58:52	Will Trump say "Through the Roof" in September?	No	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x6ea869…
09-01 12:58:46	Will Trump praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xc5f500…
09-01 12:54:06	Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in August?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xb6eaaf…
09-01 09:38:15	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0x7300a2…
08-30 09:35:28	Will turnout in the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum be between 80–85%?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xac0afe…
08-30 09:34:37	Will turnout in the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum be above 85%?	Yes	SELL	66	0¢	$0	0xe8dd70…
08-30 08:48:37	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 18, 2026?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x71028b…
08-30 08:47:48	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x9396af…
08-30 08:47:43	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xdf17d4…
08-30 08:47:37	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x543167…
08-30 08:47:22	Will Trump say "Presidential Walk of Fame" in August?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$4	0xd176d4…
08-29 18:58:00	Will "No" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by less than 3%?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xdac3f9…
08-29 18:46:22	Will turnout in the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum be between 80–85%?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xcd74d2…
08-29 18:18:09	Will turnout in the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum be above 85%?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x0074b9…
08-29 18:10:34	Will turnout in the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum be above 85%?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xf97c52…
08-29 12:41:34	Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x97922a…
08-29 07:42:49	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?	No	BUY	41	15¢	$6	0xf26300…
08-27 17:47:03	Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	54	1¢	$1	0x58931f…
08-27 17:00:07	Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	79¢	$26	0xaa259b…
08-27 16:59:48	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 25, 2026?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0xfc86dc…
08-27 16:59:06	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	23¢	$20	0xae9ef4…
08-27 16:54:16	Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x6f7af9…
08-27 16:53:55	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$15	0x825efa…
08-27 16:53:19	Will Trump say "Tango" in August?	No	SELL	11	84¢	$9	0xa1cb2d…
08-27 12:17:43	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$19	0xe9ac81…
08-27 12:08:24	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	Yes	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x938fd3…
08-27 12:07:33	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0xe23746…
08-26 19:52:58	Will Trump say "Moscow" in August?	No	SELL	14	75¢	$10	0xfcd733…
08-26 10:31:07	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	24¢	$21	0x89274d…
08-26 10:18:19	Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x4ba84b…
08-26 09:14:42	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?	Yes	SELL	13	66¢	$8	0xbbefe9…
08-26 09:14:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 Week of August 24 2026?	No	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0xae7d47…
08-26 09:14:28	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 Week of August 24 2026?	No	SELL	3	78¢	$3	0xfafc13…
08-26 09:14:19	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	10¢	$2	0x442da2…
08-26 09:14:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x338d78…
08-26 09:12:34	Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	131	6¢	$7	0x8fa427…
08-25 16:02:27	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	59¢	$8	0x5749b7…
08-25 14:38:51	Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	89	9¢	$8	0xa7527f…
08-25 14:25:48	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$19	0x6b7641…
08-25 12:05:52	Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8f9ad7…
08-25 06:31:39	Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x828c73…
08-24 20:13:58	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 23, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$20	0xa3e77f…