Firm-Tailbud — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.5%

Resolved

Trades

54,026

lifetime

Volume

$12.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 07-01 10:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

49% 22% +$1

Crypto

34% 0% $-1

Politics

10% 100% +$2

Sports

5% 0% $-1

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 536 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	513	$211	100,160	100,160	+0	open	—	06-10 05:49
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	49	$147	52,950	94,396	-41,446	open	—	02-24 04:58
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	9	$146	46,008	100,000	-53,992	open	—	02-23 04:07
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 380 399	152	$114	12,000	4,371	+7,629	open	—	03-10 14:10
will bitcoin dip to 40k in march 2026	493	$114	30,058	39,998	-9,940	open	—	03-30 15:17
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	27	$109	36,347	36,347	+0	open	—	03-21 07:31
will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	339	$108	42,363	33,008	+9,355	open	—	03-28 18:42
will bitcoin dip to 25k in march 2026	586	$97	32,285	32,377	-92	open	—	03-28 05:35
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	65	$97	35,809	30,377	+5,432	open	—	03-15 16:16
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	37	$94	24,041	70,000	-45,959	open	—	02-22 03:37
will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	242	$90	29,746	29,973	-227	open	—	03-27 08:37
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	312	$82	27,398	27,105	+293	open	—	03-27 07:02
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 90 114	9	$70	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	02-09 15:00
will 40 44 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	9	$67	1,000	856	+144	open	—	03-24 13:02
will ethereum dip to 400 in march 2026	528	$65	19,935	18,536	+1,399	open	—	03-27 00:53
Trump out as President by April 30?	11	$63	10,452	18,548	-8,096	open	—	04-26 04:13
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	135	$59	19,987	19,487	+500	open	—	03-26 01:49
will ethereum reach 3200 in march 2026	312	$58	19,920	19,999	-79	open	—	03-28 12:51
will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	260	$57	19,814	15,414	+4,400	open	—	03-24 04:29
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	92	$57	18,178	19,478	-1,300	open	—	06-19 21:46
will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	16	$56	15,582	20,000	-4,418	open	—	03-26 12:28
will bitcoin dip to 30k in march 2026	243	$54	24,271	29,999	-5,728	open	—	03-29 09:06
elon musk of tweets march 21 march 23 240plus	35	$54	11,383	9,205	+2,178	open	—	03-22 02:26
will ethereum reach 3000 in march 2026	302	$53	19,649	16,494	+3,155	open	—	03-30 00:29
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	4	$50	10,000	20,000	-10,000	open	—	03-27 13:09
houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	19	$49	4,980	4,711	+269	open	—	03-11 03:40
will dogecoin reach 0pt25 in february 2026	161	$47	17,040	12,464	+4,576	open	—	02-27 16:09
will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	296	$47	19,888	19,654	+234	open	—	03-27 15:28
will bitcoin dip to 20k in march 2026	235	$45	28,918	7,811	+21,107	open	—	03-26 08:56
will solana reach 160 in march 2026	261	$44	12,414	15,924	-3,511	open	—	03-27 01:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 10:30:07	Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?	Yes	SELL	146	0¢	$0	0xcf13ce…
07-01 07:34:35	Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xff80cb…
07-01 07:26:25	Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	607	0¢	$1	0x494f5e…
07-01 07:24:53	Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x7e31f0…
07-01 07:17:37	Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x1f4337…
07-01 06:57:01	Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	915	0¢	$1	0xc107fc…
07-01 06:41:56	Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x15d0b3…
07-01 06:40:28	Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	897	0¢	$1	0xae6b3c…
07-01 06:39:37	Will Amazon acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xdb7b1f…
07-01 06:38:34	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0d210d…
07-01 01:48:25	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	312	0¢	$0	0xa7de92…
06-30 23:23:23	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	179	0¢	$0	0xad37ef…
06-30 21:20:08	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,605	0¢	$3	0x0ace26…
06-30 21:09:55	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	SELL	350	0¢	$0	0x2d5138…
06-30 19:44:08	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	SELL	41	0¢	$0	0x032050…
06-30 16:00:05	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xde4630…
06-30 12:51:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x73f3ad…
06-30 12:36:16	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xcd14ad…
06-30 12:31:58	Will Walmart acquire TikTok?	Yes	SELL	538	0¢	$1	0x151a7a…
06-30 12:31:05	Will Amazon acquire TikTok?	Yes	SELL	788	0¢	$1	0x83cfce…
06-30 12:26:29	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xc80c33…
06-30 10:54:37	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	616	0¢	$1	0x4d9185…
06-30 10:54:32	Will Amazon acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	788	0¢	$1	0xfa1d19…
06-30 10:54:25	Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	404	0¢	$0	0x74397d…
06-30 10:21:38	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0xee8932…
06-30 09:32:44	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	284	0¢	$0	0xdc76b2…
06-30 09:24:53	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0xbf286d…
06-30 05:27:10	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	216	0¢	$0	0x82e63b…
06-30 05:24:29	Will Walmart acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0x2fdd36…
06-30 02:36:20	Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	Yes	SELL	54	0¢	$0	0xd52153…
06-30 01:47:05	Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?	Yes	BUY	99	0¢	$0	0xc28d9c…
06-30 00:00:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x9553c4…
06-29 15:08:29	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x697921…
06-29 06:58:52	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0xb71449…
06-28 23:50:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,596	0¢	$2	0xad790c…
06-28 23:31:19	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x1656f0…
06-28 23:16:14	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xe75301…
06-28 23:16:11	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x778e49…
06-28 23:01:23	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x11c95a…
06-28 22:52:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	74	0¢	$0	0xb1a743…
06-28 22:29:41	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	102	0¢	$0	0x078cc7…
06-28 22:28:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	396	0¢	$0	0x0346a7…
06-28 22:16:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x939c41…
06-28 22:02:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xf311c2…
06-28 21:35:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xe6bece…
06-28 21:30:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xcbc7c7…
06-28 21:17:01	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xf24a09…
06-28 21:16:59	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x872e24…
06-28 21:00:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xe66c59…
06-28 21:00:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xe03f03…
06-28 21:00:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x13c9d4…
06-28 19:31:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xa4c2a0…
06-28 19:01:19	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x9708da…
06-28 18:52:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	162	0¢	$0	0xce0799…
06-28 18:37:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	160	0¢	$0	0xd8b936…
06-28 17:31:47	Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xfc1b47…
06-28 16:10:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	195	0¢	$0	0xf8ba44…
06-28 09:54:02	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xa070af…
06-27 23:48:35	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	257	0¢	$0	0xe8c922…
06-27 23:47:40	Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?	Yes	SELL	88	0¢	$0	0xc6648c…
06-27 23:01:28	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x97279e…
06-27 22:24:53	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x090b6e…
06-27 22:23:16	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x3ffc72…
06-27 19:08:47	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xa5e619…
06-27 17:57:32	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	113	0¢	$0	0x00e8d8…
06-27 15:49:17	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x059a6b…
06-27 14:16:43	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x2da703…
06-27 13:25:26	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x13e577…
06-27 13:23:58	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x53ca67…
06-27 12:37:35	Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?	Yes	BUY	88	0¢	$0	0x17544d…
06-27 12:05:25	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	99	0¢	$0	0xef95f4…
06-27 09:26:47	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x6ff066…
06-27 09:01:34	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,871	0¢	$4	0x85b115…
06-27 06:10:08	Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	744	0¢	$1	0x01a245…
06-27 06:08:32	Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xac4e48…
06-27 03:46:50	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	71	0¢	$0	0x19aa64…
06-27 00:42:50	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x0cc196…
06-27 00:25:23	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0xe9ff50…
06-27 00:08:29	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x50b2d3…
06-26 20:30:47	Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,323	0¢	$2	0x88e95f…
06-26 08:52:11	Anthropic CEO arrested?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xb0159f…
06-26 05:35:07	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd6209f…
06-26 05:34:50	Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,019	0¢	$2	0xaf33be…
06-26 05:32:43	Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x221bab…
06-26 05:14:52	Anthropic CEO arrested?	Yes	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0x78f10d…
06-26 04:33:11	Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	SELL	657	0¢	$1	0xe38d79…
06-26 04:31:22	Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	83	0¢	$0	0x396860…
06-26 03:09:55	Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x6c097f…
06-26 02:25:10	Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	218	0¢	$0	0xd55a77…
06-26 00:46:25	Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xab764f…
06-26 00:18:44	Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x621770…
06-26 00:16:32	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7,560	0¢	$8	0x02ea85…
06-25 23:21:14	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,449	0¢	$6	0x5e1ef9…
06-25 23:01:40	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe12eb3…
06-25 23:01:34	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xb91a8e…
06-25 21:00:10	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xf7337e…
06-25 17:49:14	Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	BUY	439	0¢	$0	0x0b7e48…
06-25 16:59:20	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	0¢	$0	0x1bad31…
06-25 15:31:16	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xd8d36e…
06-25 14:58:55	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x4cce14…