Carefree-Lout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.07K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.4%

Resolved

4,166

Trades

10,803

lifetime

Volume

$102.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-06 09:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 149 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 60% -$4,041

Other

1% 29% -$4

Politics

0% 50% -$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 280 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 74k on april 14	6	$1.5K	1,224	1,214	+9	Yes	-$642	04-14 03:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 05:30 UTC	4	$1.3K	765	719	+45	Down	-$72	03-23 05:34
bitcoin above 70k on april 13	4	$1.3K	729	718	+12	Yes	+$159	04-13 15:08
ethereum above 2100 on april 13	2	$1.1K	586	584	+2	Yes	+$25	04-13 14:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 12:35 UTC	3	$1.0K	832	826	+6	Up	+$623	03-26 12:40
bitcoin above 76k on april 14	2	$999	505	505	+0	No	$0	04-13 16:09
bitcoin above 72k on april 15	2	$993	510	509	+2	Yes	+$26	04-15 16:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 13:05 UTC	6	$855	1,416	0	+1,416	Up	-$85	04-07 13:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 09:45 UTC	8	$797	857	0	+857	Down	+$10	04-19 09:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 01:25 UTC	3	$783	586	437	+149	Up	-$21	04-09 01:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 01:45 UTC	5	$720	989	0	+989	Down	-$79	04-07 01:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 16:15 UTC	5	$682	720	0	+720	Down	+$2	04-18 16:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 08:00 UTC	3	$603	410	404	+6	Up	+$210	03-27 08:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	3	$599	304	304	+0	No	-$1	04-12 15:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:15 UTC	1	$582	1,661	0	+1,661	Down	-$582	03-18 05:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 12:15 UTC	2	$581	682	0	+682	Up	-$45	04-20 12:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 15:10 UTC	2	$580	390	384	+6	Up	+$186	03-16 15:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 09:30 UTC	2	$550	585	0	+585	Up	-$550	04-24 09:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 14:45 UTC	3	$537	748	0	+748	Up	-$92	04-01 14:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 12:55 UTC	5	$534	1,044	0	+1,044	Up	+$19	04-07 12:58
bitcoin above 70k on april 14	3	$526	285	282	+3	Yes	+$39	04-14 09:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 04:00 UTC	3	$526	380	279	+101	Up	+$29	03-18 04:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:20 UTC	1	$515	1,272	0	+1,272	Down	-$515	03-18 05:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 09:15 UTC	1	$500	517	0	+517	Up	+$17	04-24 09:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 19:45 UTC	1	$497	507	0	+507	Down	+$10	04-11 19:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 17:20 UTC	3	$479	619	611	+7	Down	+$79	03-26 17:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 12:00 UTC	10	$479	515	236	+279	Up	-$10	03-21 12:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 11:50 UTC	5	$453	434	180	+254	Down	-$97	03-21 11:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 10:00 UTC	1	$449	727	0	+727	Up	+$278	03-16 10:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:25 UTC	18	$413	217	217	+0	Down	+$13	09-29 15:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 09:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x2063c4…
10-06 09:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x504dad…
10-06 09:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0xee1d5e…
10-06 09:20:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xc928e5…
10-06 09:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x4a1f79…
10-06 09:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x17d313…
10-06 09:11:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x24cc0f…
10-06 09:10:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x3202dd…
10-06 09:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xad6bd2…
10-06 08:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xc8f703…
10-06 08:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xcf9c6d…
10-06 07:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x17ab2e…
10-06 05:26:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x136e03…
10-05 16:22:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x236b1f…
10-05 16:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xa9f562…
10-05 16:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x43e05c…
10-05 16:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xafc697…
10-05 16:10:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x419b14…
10-05 16:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x719c64…
10-05 16:07:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xaf074d…
10-05 16:06:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x1fa33a…
10-05 16:03:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x9ce9ee…
10-05 15:47:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x840fd2…
10-05 15:47:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xe527ee…
10-05 15:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x8737c7…
10-05 15:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xe5f37a…
10-05 15:37:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xdb1c86…
10-05 15:36:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xe07958…
10-05 15:33:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xa01fea…
10-05 15:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x65f7ae…
10-05 15:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x5fe528…
10-05 15:28:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x94f05b…
10-05 15:23:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x08702b…
10-05 15:23:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xed644c…
10-05 15:22:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 15:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0xb989a2…
10-05 15:22:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 15:20 UTC	Up	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x7d9f14…
10-05 15:21:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 15:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x1b771d…
10-05 15:17:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xf8c90f…
10-05 15:17:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x823e92…
10-05 15:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x248555…
10-05 15:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x68a427…
10-05 15:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9e3325…
10-05 15:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x93fc5d…
10-05 15:12:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x947ddc…
10-05 15:11:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x90bc5b…
10-05 15:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0x89b5bf…
10-05 15:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xe55fd3…
10-05 15:10:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x0bc48b…
10-05 15:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xebfb52…
10-05 15:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x25d277…
10-05 15:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xf93349…
10-05 15:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xaa4ee8…
10-05 15:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xa6fd4c…
10-05 15:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xea854e…
10-05 15:02:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xda43db…
10-05 14:38:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x30a128…
10-05 14:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8fd2bf…
10-05 14:32:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xd21a60…
10-05 14:32:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x37e13e…
10-05 14:14:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 14:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x8f5df3…
10-05 14:14:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x806137…
10-05 12:52:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf14cfe…
10-05 12:51:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x246205…
10-05 12:47:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 12:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x6071ff…
10-05 12:46:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x9de15f…
10-05 12:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x0b5380…
10-05 12:43:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x219bc0…
10-05 12:37:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 12:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x7d85d2…
10-05 12:32:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x71461c…
10-05 12:31:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xf8ee9a…
10-05 12:27:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x160689…
10-05 12:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x561a8d…
10-05 12:22:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x910a5c…
10-05 12:22:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x9a7c28…
10-05 12:12:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x4cfd17…
10-05 12:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x7adf50…
10-05 12:07:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 12:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x382eed…
10-05 12:07:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 12:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xba1c4f…
10-05 12:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7670d4…
10-05 12:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x9e1725…
10-05 11:57:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xa729b8…
10-05 11:56:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4c4794…
10-05 11:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x7bf90c…
10-05 11:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xad2a98…
10-05 11:47:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xbef5e3…
10-05 11:46:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xf40ca8…
10-05 11:43:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xac7be9…
10-05 11:41:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd8d79c…
10-05 11:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xd3d663…
10-05 11:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xca60fd…
10-05 11:32:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xd946bc…
10-05 11:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x312d6c…
10-05 11:27:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x38fe49…
10-05 11:26:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x25350c…
10-05 11:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xba1530…
10-05 11:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7be0e4…
10-05 11:17:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0xa2f907…
10-05 11:17:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x44ab26…
10-05 11:17:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xc3e127…
10-05 11:07:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x073a54…